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Sitting and watching the Orica GreenEDGE team stand on the Tour de France winner’s podium and then Simon Gerrans zip up the yellow jersey is a little hard to believe.
This column was meant to focus on how Tour de France history has been shaped by the Team Time Trial and I will get to that in a moment but right now, the Tour de France story is all about Australia’s first World Tour team.
Just over a week ago, we knew that the selectors had picked a strong team, even if I had the tiniest quibble over one or two riders.
But there was little doubt it was much better than last year’s historic Tour de France nine.
We hoped it would be a team good enough to win a stage, and while we knew ‘Gerro’ was always going to be a contender, confidence in Matt Goss was not as solid.
So as brilliant as it was when Gerrans broke the duck, and lanced a massive Orica-GreenEDGE pressure point by claiming an historic stage three win in Corsica, it maybe wasn’t such a surprise that he was the one to do it.
And while we knew he had been targeting that stage for several months, no one really thought that triumph could be repeated and arguably bettered, just 24 hours later.
The Team Time Trial in Nice was some moment for Australian cycling.
Where does it rank in our Tour de France history will make for a fascinating debate, but that’s for another day.
After filing this piece, I wonder how I will get to sleep because the adrenalin is in full flow.
I wonder how much sleep sports director Matt White will get, because surely he deserves a lot of the credit for what we have seen so far.
Would we have seen the past two days unfold the way they did if White hadn’t been reinstalled as DS for this race?
I suggest we wouldn’t. Matt White seems to know what it takes to find the crucial edge.
And in a sport where it’s the one-percent efforts that make the difference, then the decision to re-employ him has proved a masterstroke.
Orica-GreenEDGE celebrate after winning the team time trial at Nice in Stage 4 of the 2013 Tour de France (Image: Sky).
Where the Orica-GreenEDGE express takes us from here doesn’t really matter, the boys have given us two days of unforgettable memories.
But as good as the Nice Team Time Trial was for one Aussie rider, what can you say about Cadel’s day?
It’s one of cycling’s oldest clichés: you can’t win the Tour in the first week, but you can easily lose it.
And after last night’s Team Time Trial, history suggests nothing has changed.
This Tour has not gone to script once in the opening four days, so there’s no reason to think it will for the rest of the race, but right now history says Cadel’s chances of winning a second Tour de France title have gone.
The Team Time Trial hasn’t always featured in the Tour’s parcours but when it has, it’s given a hefty hint as to which team will take home the final yellow jersey.
Appearing eight times in the past 13 editions, not once has the Tour winner has come from a team that places outside the top five in a Team Time Trial.
The Tour’s most experienced rider Stuart O’Grady describes it as “the most stressful day of any bike race” as a team is only as strong as its weakest rider.
No one can afford to crack until the final stages when the crucial final five riders are making the desperate dash to the line.
If you need reminding BMC finished ninth in Nice, 26 seconds behind Orica-GreenEDGE, which put Evans 26 seconds behind Gerrans in the GC.
Cadel is only 23 seconds behind Tour favourite Chris Froome and 17 behind Alberto Contador, but that’s still time he has to make up.
Given Cadel is not famous for being the most attacking rider, capable of breakaway wins, how he manages his campaign from here will be fascinating to watch.
But the history books suggest he won’t be able to turn the deficit around.
There wasn’t a Team Time Trial last year but when he won in 2011 Cadel’s BMC team finished second in the race against the clock. Leopard-Trek was fourth and had the Schleck Brothers sandwiching Cadel on the podium.
In 2010, no Team Time Trial was included but in 2009, riders from the top three placed teams filled the top five GC spots.
You could argue these statistics are skewed by that disgraced Texan rider, but the broader figures lend support to the argument.
Apart from 2005 when Armstrong’s Discovery Team was the only team in Team Time Trial top five to provide a top five GC rider, the numbers holds up.
In 2004, the teams placing first, fourth and fifth (US Postal, T-Mobile and CSC) in the Team Time Trial filled the top five on GC.
A year earlier, the top two GC finishers were first and third in the Team Time Trial with US Postal and Team Bianchi respectively.
Similarly in 2002, it was top two in the Team Time Trial (Once and US Postal) taking the top two steps (albeit reversed) on the Champs Elysees podium.
And in 2001, second (ONCE) and fourth (US Postal) after the Team Time Trial provided the first and third riders on GC.
Even randomly picking years in the 1990s and 1980s proves the theory a top five place in the Team Time Trial and at the very least you’re a serious podium contender.
As Miguel Indurain bid farewell to a five-year time-trial based domination of le Tour, the 1995 race saw the top four riders on GC come from the top four teams in the Team Time Trial.
It was a little leaner in ’94, but the Indurain’s victory was built from a solid third place in the Team Time Trial.
Randomly picking two years from the ‘80s, and it’s the same story.
In the gripping 1985 edition, La vie Claire won the Team Time Trial and filled the top two GC spots – Bernard Hinault and Greg LeMond.
Three years earlier, four of the top five riders – including Hinault as he picked up his fourth title–came from top five Team Time Trial teams.
So while numbers might suggest a picture to paint, this edition of the Tour de France hasn’t exactly gone to script.
Let’s hope that trend continues for another two and a half weeks and we get to experience another slice of Australian Tour de France history.
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