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The Golden Rose has come from nowhere to become one of the hottest races on the calendar in little over a decade, and is quickly gaining on the Caulfield Guineas as the key three year old race for the spring.
Seldom has the Melbourne three year old form been superior to Sydney’s in recent years, especially when it comes to the Golden Rose.
In fact, there’s only been one legitimately Victorian-trained winner of this race since the Peter Pan Stakes was converted to it, which was Rick Hore-Lacy’s Toorak Toff in 2010.
But this year, the Vics hold the pre-race whip hand, with the two clear favourites coming from the Tony Vasil and David Hayes stables.
Vasil’s Prince Harada has had a boom on him since before his debut, and holds favouritism despite not having won at Stakes level in his career thus far.
He’s got a brilliant turn of foot, which wasn’t fully displayed at his last start in the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield, as Miracles of Life came across him, cutting off his run. He was good enough to accelerate again after copping his check.
The best horses make a habit of avoiding bad luck, a claim that can’t be made about Prince Harada last start, and his backers will be a little nervous about barrier one, especially for a horse that can be tardy from the machines.
Fast N Rocking is on the next line of betting, and was Prince Harada’s conqueror in the McNeil, despite doing a few things wrong himself.
Everything about this horse screams class, and he proved his Group 1 credentials as a two year old with excellent runs in the Blue Diamond, Golden Slipper and Champagne Stakes.
I suspect he’s improved a few lengths more than his rivals from the autumn, and now that he’s broken his maiden status, you can expect him to go right on with it.
From barrier five, Brett Prebble will be able to enjoy the run of the race in the third or fourth pair if he chooses.
Any odds are good odds for Fast N Rocking in this race, so anything around $6 is a luxury indeed.
The biggest dangers to these Victorians weren’t seen in the best races as two year olds, but their threat is no less real because of it.
Cluster put in what could arguably be the run of the Sydney carnival so far in the Run To The Rose.
Coming from last on the turn to make up many lengths down the outside in the inferior ground against the rails bias, he may actually be worthy of the lofty tag his trainer Anthony Cummings, bestowed upon him, “the best three year old in Australia.”
Still a maiden, he’s drawn to stalk Fast N Rocking in the run if James McDonald decides to do so, and the respective rides on these two horses may decide the winner.
Zoustar was the second best run out of the Run to the Rose, continuing to find the line after being posted out on a limb.
He had to contend with a wide gate, top weight and was also first up while almost all of those who finished ahead and immediately behind him had the benefit of a previous run.
Barrier 17 may not do him any favours, and it will take a Jim Cassidy special to get him across the line ahead of all others.
Expect him to hurry forward to take up the running or sit just off it, for he has won doing either in his short career.
I don’t need any others in my quaddie, and it will surprise me greatly to find the winner come from anywhere else.
Others may make cases for Sidestep, Dissident, Eurozone and Drago, but only the latter could potentially interest me.
Most have already pencilled him in for the Spring Champion, and he looks every bit the Victorian Derby contender, but he should find a few too sharp for him tomorrow.
Selections: 1. Fast N Rocking 2. Cluster 3. Zoustar 4. Prince Harada
A couple of Group 2 races over a mile down at Moonee Valley will complement the Rosehill card, with both normally being significant pointers to the spring.
Atlantic Jewel will no doubt make a mess of her competitors in the Stocks Stakes, an event that normally proves to be a hot form race.
Her Memsie Stakes win was achieved with all the effortlessness of a barrier trial, and any doubters were put well and truly in their place.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Oasis Bloom, who looked to race a bit dourly first- and second-up. She came off similar results in the same races last spring before taking out this race.
She’s on the Caulfield Cup trail, and will head to the JRA Cup and Herbert Power after this.
The Dato Tan Chin Nam has provided several Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup winners in the last few decades, including the likes of Green Moon, El Segundo, Fields of Omagh and Makybe Diva in recent times.
History strongly suggests the Memsie Stakes as the key lead-up race, which is no surprise given it is held a fortnight earlier under the same weight for age conditions.
Super Cool and Fiorente, the two best runs from the Memsie outside Atlantic Jewel, are fighting for favouritism tomorrow, and both are expected to be major players in the Cups and/or Cox Plate.
Happy Trails, last year’s winner and subsequent Emirates Stakes victor, didn’t handle being so close to the speed in a high pressure Memsie, and he’ll be looking to take more of a sit this time around.
It’s hard to see the winner come from outside these three, although we’re yet to see Lidari’s ceiling, and he could be the one to spring a surprise if there is one, albeit being still at respectable odds.
Best roughie of the day is Imanana in the first at the Valley. Her last start was a complete forget, as she was in the worst part of the track and didn’t handle the slops.
Her first-up run in the Quezette Stakes was extremely meritorious, beaten less than three lengths under trying circumstances behind Kiss a Rose, who franked that form in the Danehill last week.
The other form out of the Quezette has already been strong enough for Imanana to be a contender in a race like this, and we should be getting $21 at some stage.
Another wide barrier is the only concern, but if she reproduces her Caulfield run, she’ll almost take this race out regardless.
We’ve seen some sensational racing already this season, and it’s only going to get better in the coming weeks.
Tomorrow at Rosehill and Moonee Valley should be no exception. Enjoy!