A wise man once said a horse must have 10,000 metres of race fitness in their legs to win a Melbourne Cup.
Considering that man has won more Cups than any other trainer by a country mile, how come no one listens to him?
Bart Cummings’ 13 Melbourne Cups is seven more than his nearest rival, none of which still train today.
Of trainers who still ply their trade, Ireland’s Dermot Weld is the next closest but still miles behind with two.
Melbourne Cups are difficult to win and when one man has had unbelievable success in the race where he is unrivalled, it seems odd that his advice is ignorantly ignored by today’s trainers.
Questions were asked of Darren Weir when he opted to start this year’s Cup favourite Puissance De Lune’s campaign in the PB Lawrence Stakes on August 17. It meant the horse would need to be up for 80 days if he is to get to the Melbourne Cup on November 5.
With such a strong emphasis on recovery and elaborate training regimes as a result of sports science, does the Bart Cummings 10,000m myth have any relevance today?
Last year, Green Moon underwent a Melbourne Cup preparation with two weeks between each race with the Melbourne Cup being the fifth of his campaign which started in the Memsie Stakes (1400m).
He then went to the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m), the Turnbull Stakes (2000m), the Cox Plate (2040m) and finally the Melbourne Cup. By Cup day, Green Moon had only clocked up 7,040m and went on to win.
Fiorente was second behind Green Moon and was essentially running first-up having not raced in seven weeks (28 days was spent in quarantine). He had one run in the Prix Foy (2400m) and that was his only run since July, yet he managed to run second in the Melbourne Cup.
In 2011, Dunaden came through the Prix Kergolay (3000m) and Geelong Cup (2400m) to cover 5,400m before going on to Melbourne Cup glory. Runner up Red Cadeaux came off a 52 day break but ignoring the 28 days in quarantine, he had 9,000m in the legs from the Goodwood Cup (3200m), Prix Kergolay (3000m) and Irish St Leger (2800m).
In 2010, Americain had only covered 5,400m through the Prix Kergolay (3000m) and Geelong Cup (2400m). Runner up that year, Maluckyday however covered exactly 10,000 and went on to run the race of his career.
That was also the year Cummings started So You Think in the Melbourne Cup and he certainly put his money where his mouth was because So You Think had already clocked 10,640m from his six runs before the Melbourne Cup.
The last Melbourne Cup winner to have run the 10,000m by Cup day was Shocking in 2009. He had 11,840m in his six runs with the first of those on August 29.
Cummings’ last Cup success came in 2008 when Viewed surprised a lot of people. In that preparation, Viewed had only clocked up 9,600m.
In her three victories, the great Makybe Diva entered the Melbourne Cup with 7,400m, 9,200m and 7,040m of race fitness.
In the past ten years, Shocking has been the only horse with more 10,000m of race fitness in his legs and go on to win the Melbourne Cup.
Interestingly though, if we go back a further ten years, six Cup winners: Brew (2000), Rogan Josh (1999), Jezabeel (1998), Saintly (1996), Jeune (1995) and Subzero (1992), all had the 10,000m in their legs.
Asking a horse to run 10,000m is a mammoth task and one which trainers believe will tire them badly by the time they reach the Melbourne Cup.
If Puissance De Lune continues his preparation with fortnightly runs and avoid any races which may lead to weight penalties, he will line-up in the Underwood Stakes, Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate.
By then, there will be 8,840m in his legs which is surprisingly low considering how early he started his campaign.
No horse has ever pulled off the PB Lawrence-Melbourne Cup double and with 80 days between the two races; it’s easy to see why.
Is the Cups King’s wisdom outdated?
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
