Well we came damn close last week with the arc. And at least according to some crooner from the 70s two outta three ain’t bad…..but it ain’t no cigar either!
So to tip up the winner this week I’ve decided to look at the Cesarewitch, because a race with 36 runners, sure that should be a doddle to pick a winner out of….yep, I do like a challenge!
Last year’s winner Aaim to Prosper won off a massive 66/1 and over the last 20 years of renewals only three favourites have managed to be worthy of their tag.
This race is a slog fest and depending on the weather at this time of year, can end up a muck fight.
Thankfully the going is currently good to firm, but I expect that to ease up to good, possibly good to soft, with rain expected today and overnight.
Currently there are four horses at the top of the market, currently all at 8/1.
First up Lady Cecil’s Tiger Cliff, plenty of ability and won well on good to soft last time out at York winning the Ebor, but has a battle uphill with top weight and a high draw.
Secondly we have Sir Prescott’s Pallasator, the horse is a freak, possibly the biggest horse you have ever seen on the flat, has to have a good chance here with the ground likely to be in his favour.
Third up is Irish hopeful Domination for Charles Byrnes, won well over hurdles when last seen in August, but is possibly too much in the grip of the handicapper here.
Finally at the head of the market we have the French fancy, Smoky Hill for Mikel Delzangles, drawn at 14 and very well handicapped at a rating of 91, surely this one is the one to watch of the market leaders.
Nicky Henderson has won this race in the past and it saddling two runners, with prime jockey bookings, both of which have huge chances.
Lieutenant Millar (12/1) has had a great run of it over the summer and the booking of Ryan Moore has to improve his chances, but with the ground softening I think the less talked about Earth Amber (20/1) with the Champ Richard Hughes on board is the pick of the outsiders.
Drawn well at six and off a decent handicap, his grandsire is the prodigious Montjuic, don’t let the form trick you into thinking it hasn’t a hope.
Henderson/Hughes could be a magic pairing.
Two others to take note of are Oriental Fox (11/1) for Mark Johnson with that man Johnny Murtagh on board.
Johnson’s yard has been on fire this summer and Murtagh seems to have popped up on board every big race winner.
This pairing won well here last time out in September, albeit in lesser company.
The last one chosen to highlight is Chiberta King (22/1) for Andrew Balding ridden by the hot newcomer Oisin Murphy.
Drawn against the rail in one and although not showing too much form of late (you have to go back to last June to find a winner) I have a feeling this one has been held to run a big race here.
I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this one feature in the places, especially with some bookmakers paying up to six places.
My 1,2,3,4 are Earth Amber, Oriental Fox, Smoky Hill and Pallasator, but I’m still not sure in which order!
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