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The Australian Guineas can often be a forgotten Group 1 races for three-year-olds.
The race is not afforded the status the Caufield Guineas possesses in spring, and it often doesn’t attract the best Sydney three-year-olds, connections choosing to focus on their own carnival and the riches within.
Last year’s race is a prime example of a weak edition. If we look at the first four home in that event, they’ve had 27 subsequent starts between them for only two wins.
Fillies have a very good record in this race, especially in recent times, but there are none engaged this time around. A horse like Solicit would certainly have made her presence felt if they had elected to run her.
Almost the entire field had their lead-up run in one of three key races, so the form for tomorrow’s affair should be quite clear-cut.
The favourite is Hucklebuck, impressive winner of the CS Hayes, who’ll be meeting five of the rivals he vanquished that day.
After his win, our own Justin Cinque hypothesised he might be a false Guineas favourite due to a suspicion that he might not see out the trip as strongly as some of his rivals.
He’ll need to settle a bit better to take care of what looks a classy field, but in his favour is meeting most of his CS Hayes opposition better at the weights from that run.
One horse he doesn’t meet better is Criterion, who ran a strong fourth coming from back in the field to be beaten just over two lengths, and gets 2kgs relief from the winner at level weights.
He split Complacent and Savvy Nature when second in the Group 1 Spring Champion over 2000m, as strong to the line as any horse. He’ll relish every bit of the step up to a mile, and is the ‘odds’ horse of the race.
Let’s not forget, there was nothing between he and Eurozone in the Stan Fox five months ago, and both have come back strongly this time around.
Prince Harada settled forward in the CS Hayes and ran well to hold onto second, but he’s as disadvantaged as any horse at the weights, and it’s hard to see him beating all of them home over the extra 200m.
The Quarterback was solid into third two weeks ago, but will need to find a gear or two to turn the tables on Hucklebuck at the very least, as well as a few others besides.
Teronado caught the eye with a fast finish in the same race, matching strides with Criterion down the straight, but it’s hard to believe he’s shorter than Criterion. He’s certainly got a nice race in him, but it’s not this one.
Surge Ahead rounds out those coming from the CS Hayes, and is an outsider in this field. Anthony Cummings, the Group 1 big odds specialist, in his trainer, and there might be a trick left inside his bag.
Surge Ahead’s best form has been when racing right on the speed, so it won’t surprise to see Chris Symons try to boot up from barrier one and take up the running with no obvious leader jumping off the page. Under those circumstances, he might provide the shock of the race.
The two biggest names in the field, Shamus Award and Eurozone, bring Group 1 Orr Stakes form into the race and sit just behind Hucklebuck as favourites in the market.
Eurozone was the more impressive that day, just failing to run down Moment of Change in the closing stages. His run was strengthened when the Moody iron horse dominated the Futurity field last week for back to back Group 1 wins.
With arguably the most upside of any horse in the race, Eurozone is going to be a serious player and should get the dream box seat run for Glen Boss from barrier five. He’s hard to go past as top pick, and might be even harder to get past on the day.
Shamus Award was quite plain first up in the Orr, even disappointing to those being unkind. The stable couldn’t be more bullish about his chances though, and it’s worth remembering he’s run extremely well in all the best form races throughout his career.
His last three starts include that Orr Stakes placing, but have also seen a slashing Caulfield Guineas third and a Cox Plate win, so his quality can’t be questioned.
He will need to run up to his best to win this Guineas though, and can silence a few detractors in the process.
Thunder Fantasy took out the other key lead-up race, the Autumn Stakes over 1400m, in fine style at Caulfield on the same day as the Orr. He’s a Vic Derby place-getter who has obviously come back a better horse, and will only get better over further. He’ll settle handy and is a legitimate threat.
Rock Hero from the David Payne stable, second behind Thunder Fantasy, may have some slight claims, but I couldn’t see him turning the tables on his conqueror.
Third in the Autumn Stakes was Late Charge, a nice horse out-graded against the best, lacking a few key lengths at this level. He’ll win some races in his career, but tomorrow won’t be one of them.
Bardem was next in line, the most lightly raced runner in the field with only three starts to his name. Peter Moody isn’t known for taking wild shots at the stumps, so he’s obviously showing more ability behind the scenes than he’s shown on race-day thus far.
Alpha Beat is backing up from last week’s third in the Autumn Classic, and presumably toughened up by the 1800m run before dropping back in distance. He won’t be in my quaddie, but isn’t the worst horse in the race.
That honour probably belongs to Artie’s Shore, who is coming off a strong finish in a mid-weeker at Sandown, and will struggle to find admirers at 100-1.
This looks as deep an Australian Guineas as we’ve seen, and it should produce several stakes winners going forward.
The tempo might be questionable, with most of the wide barriers drawn by backmarkers. Shamus Award from nine will push forward, and Rock Hero may from ten if the horse jumps well and Ross assesses a lack of early speed.
Eurozone looks the bomb-proof horse of the race, with the right lead-up form, the right barrier and the right jockey. The Dato Tan Chin Nam colours are never out of place winning Group 1 races at Flemington, and it would be the first for the Bart and James Cummings training partnership.
Criterion is outstanding value at $15 or greater, and rates much higher than that. Hucklebuck is a possibly still underrated talent, and Shamus Award can improve a couple of lengths but will need to find every bit of them.
Teronado and Thunder Fantasy wouldn’t surprise at odds if they get the right run and others find a bit of bad luck.
Selections: 1. Eurozone 2. Criterion 3. Hucklebuck 4. Thunder Fantasy
There’s a nice support card of competitive and classy lower grade races at Flemington, but Rosehill Gardens provides the main secondary races of the day, albeit with shamefully small fields.
The Hobartville gives us another look at budding superstar El Roca, as dominant as any three-year-old this season with his first up win over the respected Dissident. Savvy Nature resumes and has hopefully progressed, while Murray Baker always finds a good one to bring over, and Atlante is the one this time around.
Unencumbered is one of the most proven juveniles we’ve seen this season, and seems to have had more starts than most three-year-olds.
He heads up a small but select Silver Slipper from Law, Risen From Doubt and Mossfun, exciting types all. The latter is from the Hawkes’ yard, which is absolutely flying at the moment, and looks the value in the early markets.
Red Tracer and Royal Descent will be major players throughout the Sydney autumn, and resume in the Millie Fox Stakes.
Another great day of racing lies ahead. What a Guineas it promises to be.