The first Sunday of the NFL season is always chaotic and full of surprises.
Upsets are occurring left, right and centre, teams we thought were going to be fighting it out for the number one draft pick are picking up wins, or coming very close, and teams we thought would be playoff contenders suffer shock losses.
This year is no different, the Patriots lost to Miami, the Jaguars pushed Philadelphia all the way, the Bills upset the Bears in overtime and the Falcons came from behind to defeat division rivals the New Orleans Saints, also in overtime.
It was chaotic and a lot of fun, the introduction of NFL Redzone by ESPN in Australia is possibly one of the best decisions made by the broadcaster since it arrived in Australia just under two decades ago.
The Atlanta Falcons victory over the Saints was not so much an upset; just more of a surprise, given it was a match-up between two teams who experienced wildly dissimilar results last year.
So are the Falcons back to where they were just two seasons ago, a legitimate playoff contender, or have they simply just built upon last year’s low foundation.
Admittedly it is hard to know for sure after just one match, but it appears to be a combination of the two. The 2014 Falcons aren’t as good as the 2012 Falcons, but they have some very similar characteristics and many of the areas of weakness in 2013 are now much improved this season.
One of Atlanta’s key areas of weakness last season was its receiving corps. It wasn’t that they were a bad group of players, it was that they were very short of depth.
When Julio Jones went down with injury after just five games, Matt Ryan lost his number one receiver, his sole deep threat and a player with the ability to change a game in just one play, and the Falcons’ offense lost a lot of variety.
The ageing Tony Gonzalez became the number one receiver and attracted double teams almost every time the Falcons threw the football. Roddy White and Harry Douglas were able to fill some of the void, but when your third rated wide receiver is an undrafted rookie, you know you’re in trouble.
The Falcons offensive troubles were not contained to the passing game, their running game, led by free agent signing Steven Jackson, was one of the worst in the league.
They had the fewest number of runs in the league and, naturally, the fewest total rushing yards in the competition. Furthermore, Jackson was ranked 35th in Rushing attack DVOA, or defence-Adjusted Value Over Average, according to Football Outsiders in 2013.
This is not solely Jackson’s fault, the offensive line must be attributed a portion of the blame. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Falcons had an injury ravaged offensive line that, per Football Outsiders, was the 24th ranked run blocking team in the competition.
This is not going to get a team to the playoffs and part of the reason why Atlanta was forced to throw the ball on just 31.24per cent of their offensive snaps, ten percentage points lower than the league average.
The other reason the Falcons were forced to throw the ball so often is that they were playing from behind on so many occasions. Their defence was terrible. Their Defensive DVOA of 13.5 per cent was ‘good’ enough to rank the team 29th in the league.
To put this figure into perspective, the number one ranked defence in the league, the Seattle Seahawks, possessed a defensive DVOA of -25.8per cent, with 0 per cent being average. The Falcons secondary was shaky, at best and embarrassing at worse. Things were bad for the Falcons last year, very bad.
But enough of the negatives, there’s no point living in the past, let’s live in the now. The Falcons have made a significant addition on offense, in the name of Devin Hester, and Julio Jones is finally healthy. Hester is almost a lite version of Percy Harvin.
He returns kicks, slots into the backfield and is very effective in the short passing game. On Sunday he had five catches for 99 yards, a punt return and a kick return, and it is clear that Matt Ryan will love having Hester in his offense.
The beauty of the acquisition of Hester is that he opens up the long passing game for Jones. If Jones is healthy, he is one of the best deep threats in the game; the inclusion of Hester only makes him more of a threat. This was clear against the Saints as Jones picked up 116 receiving yards and threatened all match long.
Ryan was predictably huge, as expected, and it is one small sample, but he set a franchise record for yards thrown and, perhaps most notably, was only sacked once. The Falcons already have two starting linemen from last year placed on Injured Reserve and they desperately need to improve on last year’s performance.
If the offensive line is able to build on Sunday’s performance throughout the season, the Falcons offense will improve upon last season, if it doesn’t, it could be another long season for Matt Ryan and Steven Jackson.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons struggled on Sunday, allowing Drew Brees to pass for 333 yards, not great, but still hardly embarrassing given what Brees has done to so many other teams throughout his career.
It is very hard to judge the defence based on a match against the Saints, but if the Falcons want to win this division, they will need considerable improvement from second year cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford.
What will make Trufant and Alford’s task so much easier is if the Falcons defensive front can actually pressure the quarterback, ranked last in the league in adjusted sack rate last year, the problems continued again on Sunday, as they failed to sack Brees once.
The Falcons still haven’t recovered from the departure of defensive end John Abraham after the 2012 season and the unexpected retirement of Peria Jerry certainly affects their depth.
The free agent acquisition of Chiefs’ defensive end Tyson Jackson is a significant addition to the defensive line and Atlanta will be desperately hoping that he provides a solid return on investment this season.
The Atlanta Falcons were unlucky last season, the second unluckiest team according to the Pythagorean Wins formula, were decimated by injuries and faced a very tough schedule.
There are some who expect that they will simply be able to just pick up where they left off in 2012, this will not be the case. But they will not be as poor as last season, if the Falcons are able to remain healthy, and their offensive and defensive lines show improvement, they will be a legitimate playoff contender, if not, they may struggle to improve upon last season’s disappointments.
Twitter: @fromthesheds
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