It is Sydney’s Spring version of Super Saturday – nine black type races, three majors – with the feature race the $500,000 Group l Epsom Handicap (1600m).
The history is with the four-year-olds, with the last five winners in that age bracket.
A most interesting edition of the Flight Stakes (1600m) will be run. First Seal and Winx are the two key Sydney fillies, while Melbourne will be represented by Peter Moody and his unbeaten filly, Thinking Of You, who was very impressive last time out at Caulfield.
Spillway is taking the Tawqeet path from 2006 in order to get to the Caulfield Cup. He is way down in the order of entry for the classic, and needs to win the Metropolitan (2400m) to earn a start in the final field. He has been well supported in betting and was an impressive winner here in the Autumn.
We will start off with Epsom.
As is the case with all feature races over the Randwick mile, you need a horse that can run beyond 1600m, and be proven over 2000m. The horse that fits that criteria is He’s Your Man.
We saw in his Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) win that he has a devastating turn of foot when ridden off the speed and saved for the straight, unlike his start prior where he was ridden upside down due to circumstances. A tough 2000m run before coming back to a Group l mile has been a proven winning formula with Chris Waller in the past and this horse fits that criteria nicely.
She hasn’t won for 18 months, but you can’t deny how well Royal Descent is racing at the moment. Tried her guts out first-up behind Tiger Tees in the Warwick, then was nabbed right on the peg by Hawkspur in the Chelmsford before being beaten comfortably in second place by Sacred Falls in the George Main. She is clearly the best horse in the race, and although her long losing streak is a concern, she is another who will be very strong at the end of 1600m.
Hooked won a farcical run edition of the Cameron Handicap (1500m) during the Newcastle Carnival, but full credit to Blake Shinn and John Thompson. The horse led all the way and won quite comfortably. That race used to be a good guide towards the Epsom, but it has lost its class in recent years. Still, this horse came oh so close to winning a couple of big ones during the Autumn, so we know he handles the class, and is another who is proven at 2000m and beyond. Great outside chance.
Selections
He’s Your Man (6) on top for the magic man, Joao Moreira, to beat Royal Descent (2), Hooked (8) and Toydini (3), who was good late in the George Main.
The Flight Stakes is such a fascinating contest. The depth probably isn’t as strong as what it has been in previous years, but there is plenty of intrigue around it.
The filly I’m most confident about running the mile is Thinking Of You. She was very impressive on debut at Wodonga, then went to straight to city grade at Caulfield and was even more impressive, spacing her rivals and really savaging the line at the end of 1400m, telling me she’ll have no qualms running the mile. She has a stack of upside in her and I just have a query about the other pair running 1600m compared to her.
Winx surprised many with her demolition job first up in the Furious Stakes (1400m) on a bottomless surface, then went to the Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) and couldn’t quite sprint with Earthquake when she put the foot down. She eventually picked her up, but couldn’t peg back First Seal, who got the inside split. Winx will turn the tables on that filly. Not sure she can beat the top tip.
There was no fluke about the impressive win of First Seal in the Tea Rose. It was dominant and she was on one rein for a majority of the straight, so the margin perhaps flattered her opposition. 1400m and 1600m at Randwick are two different beasts, and it’ll be interesting to see how she performs over the Randwick mile, but one thing she does have is class, and as we know with these fillies, they might not run the distance, but their class can get them home.
Selections
Those three should fill the trifecta. Thinking Of You (6) ahead of Winx (1) and First Seal (2). For fourth, I’ll put in Press Report (3), who was solid in the Golden Rose.
The Metropolitan is a race with great depth and a host of legitimate winning chances.
I will put La Amistad on top. Many were quick to pot her after her flop in the Kingston Town, but she was ridden a touch too close to the speed. She then backed up seven days later in the Hill Stakes (2000m) and really had no chance, given Shinn walked them in front on Junoob and gave those from the back no chance. This mare finally gets to a 2400m handicap, and the last time she ran under these conditions she spanked her rivals by four lengths being eased down.
Olly probably hasn’t watched a replay of his ride on Spillway in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) and for good reason – it was a howler. He kept running into dead ends and was never really extended until the final 50m. Comes back to the scene of his most impressive performance since coming to Australia, back in the Autumn when winning the JRA Plate. Yet to win beyond 2200m, but he certainly gives the impression he’ll run the trip. It is a must-win for the horse in terms of the Caulfield Cup, and he’ll go close.
Definitely have something each way on Kingdoms. He was a bit of an enigma when with John O’Shea and never really fulfilled his potential, but in the six months he has been with Eagle Farm trainer Brian Smith, he has been very impressive, winning a Listed race on debut for Smith, then placing at the same level. He was spelled, trialled brilliantly, then had no luck first up before coming to Sydney and really catching the eye with his second to He’s Your Man in the Kingston Town, making up a stack of ground from the back. Went to the trials last Friday and looked very good there, winning under a tight hold from Larry Cassidy. He’ll run 2400m no worries, and is certainly up to this level.
Selections
La Amistad (7), over Spillway (3), big watch on Kingdoms (10), then Bagman (2).
In other races on the card, Hallowed Crown will bolt in the Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) and remain unbeaten, while Hawkspur and Rising Romance should fight out the Craven Plate (2000m).
I’m keen on Famous Seamus to win the Premiere Stakes (1200m), but keep an eye on Sincero, who has trialled brilliantly.
With the babies at the start of the program, Gai Waterhouse will win the Gimcrack Stakes (1000m) with any of her quartet, while Sooboog and Vancouver should fight out the Breeders Plate (1000m).
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