I’ve already covered the current Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate favourites, and the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday gave us a new and pronounced favourite for the Caulfield Cup.
She comes in the shape of pint-sized New Zealand-owned (now Australian trained) mare Lucia Valentina.
Lucia Valentina certainly deserves the mantle given her form this Spring and in the Autumn in Sydney. She is yet to put in a poor performance in the seven outings on our shores, which includes three wins, two of them at Group 1 level and the other one at Group 2.
She has also placed at Group 1 level in the AJC Oaks and has been unlucky not to win one or two more, including the latter and the Surround Stakes at her first run in this country.
Overall she is 5-3/12 in her career and it is interesting she is yet to run a place second-up in her career in three attempts. The other unplaced effort in her career happened to be when she fell at Ellerslie in the Great Northern Guineas.
A mark of her resilience and tenacity can surely be taken out of that misfortune, because less than one week later she picked herself up off the floor to run second to arch rival Rising Romance in a Group 2 race at the same track. A lesser horse would not rebound so well in such a short space of time.
Trainer Kris Lees has done a tremendous job with her thus far and seems acutely aware of just what he needs to do with her in the next two weeks. She did have a setback leading into the Turnbull but he stated that it actually might have helped that she was forced to miss some trackwork (or extra fitness work).
She isn’t a big mare and carries little condition, which was seen to advantage first up in Sydney this campaign when she sprouted wings late to claim victory in the Tramway handicap at Randwick on a very heavy track. The trick for Kris now is to keep her ticking over and performing at the same level for at least one more start this Spring, and possibly two or three runs heading toward the Melbourne Cup.
That will probably mean going easy on her in trackwork and keeping her physically and mentally fresh for the task ahead. It is a bit or a rarity in the modern age that an AJC Oaks winner or place-getter goes on to win a Caulfield or Melbourne Cup (or both), but this filly stands on the precipice of doing just that.
I think it has to be said that she was entitled to win the Turnbull given the run she got in transit, and the quality of the ride from Kerrin McEvoy. For her to claim victory on Saturday meant she had to be reasonably prominent in the run, and the tempo up front needed to be adequate.
Fortunately that was the case in both instances, and she got the breaks at exactly the right time to wear down the Peter Moody duo over the final stages. The big bonus out of that win is that it wasn’t a tough run and she didn’t have to exert undue energy in the process of winning.
It was the perfect scenario for her leading into the 2400 metres at Caulfield. The fact she drops two kilograms into that race won’t hurt, and given her stature and ability to accelerate quickly the tighter track at “The Heath” shouldn’t pose any real problem.
The jury is still out a little in regard to her running a strong 2400 metres. She got a mile back in the AJC Oaks and just died a little the last 100 metres when making her bid for victory. In reality though it was just too much of a task to make up that amount of ground in the straight, and the Randwick rise might have contributed to her not being able to.
She still ran a gallant third, only about a length off the winner, carrying 56 kilograms. I think there is a strong argument that with 51.5 kilograms and a kinder track at Caulfield, the distance won’t pose too much of a problem.
Purely on breeding she is a distance doubt with her Sire Savabeel unable to quite see it out in the VRC Derby (after winning Cox Plate), and nine siblings on her mother’s side yet to win beyond 2200 metres, with only two of those winning beyond 1500 metres.
I’m giving her the benefit of the doubt though, and given she gets a similar run (and ride) to that she was afforded in the Turnbull, she is going to be mighty hard to stop.
She may well have the local horses covered, though the likes of Lidari and Brambles do meet her one kilogram better off at Caulfield, and her arch enemy Rising Romance might still have a bit to say in the outcome, despite her disappointing defeat in Sydney on Satruday.
The overseas contingent in the form of Admire Rakti, Bande, Dandino and Ambivalent are going to be a further test of her mettle, but she does has home advantage and, to use a cricket terminology, has the current runs on the board. She also handles any track conditions, and given any rain her chances are probably enhanced.
Given she draws a decent barrier for the race, and has ordinary luck on the day, little Lucia Valentina looks set to etch her name in the Caulfield Cup record books. And there is no reason it wouldn’t be a popular win either given her likely favouritism, outstanding lead-up form and tenacity to win despite her stature.
This is one ‘Pocket Rocket’ that won’t go down without a fight.
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