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I’ve looked deep into the form guide for the 2014 Melbourne Cup, so you don’t have to, and here’s what I’ve come up with for each runner for the race that stops a nation.
More 2014 Melbourne Cup:
» Preview and top tips
» Full field and odds
» Historical form analysis for 2014 Melbourne Cup
» Latest news, field and odds updates
»Sea Moon scratched from Melbourne Cup
» ANDREW LEMON: Your guess is as good as my Cavalryman
» Full jockey list and analysis
» Won won in 2013
1. Admire Rakti 58.5kg (8) – J – Zac Purton T – T Umeda
Japanese bred stayer who won the Caulfield Cup in impressive fashion. After going back to near last he went round the outside of most the runners mid-race, was widest runner turning and flew home to win by half a length.
Has been allotted the top weight of 58.5kg which is the heaviest he has ever carried, although he has won two races with 58kg (one being the Caulfield Cup) but the weight may tell on him over 3200m.
He has won over 3410m so can obviously stay the trip and also finished second in a Group 2 in Japan over 3016m in March this year. Looks tough to beat but weight is the big concern.
2. Cavalryman 57kg (3) – J – Craig Williams T – Saeed Bin Suroor
This will be his second attempt at the Cup, after he ran 12th in 2012.
He brings good form from the UK running a fourth and two first’s in his last three runs (all at Group 2 level).
Three time winner at 3200m and looks a true stayer so will be hoping for a solid tempo. One negative may be the fact that he has not raced in two months, but he has a great trainer that should have him ready.
More 2014 Melbourne Cup:
» Preview and top tips
» Full field and odds
» Historical form analysis for 2014 Melbourne Cup
» Latest news, field and odds updates
»Sea Moon scratched from Melbourne Cup
» ANDREW LEMON: Your guess is as good as my Cavalryman
» Full jockey list and analysis
» Won won in 2013
3. Fawkner 57kg (9) – J – Nicolas Hall T – Robert Hickmott
Looks to be in career-best form, and was excellent in the Caulfield Cup running second to the top weight here. Should be hitting peak fitness and has drawn a pretty good barrier where can get in behind the speed. Ran in this race last year with a huge run, he jumped poorly and went out the back to settle dead last.
He was the widest runner turning and sustained a huge run up the straight to past most of the field to finish sixth. That was an amazing run and he is arguably going better this time round, and is definitely the top local hope.
4. Red Cadeaux 57kg (15) – J – Gerald Mosse T – Ed Dunlop
This will be his fourth successive Cup, where he has run two seconds (second to Fiorente last year).
Form over recent times is probably not as good as last year, but has class which goes a long way. Wide barrier may be an issue but it’s hard to write him off after last year’s performance, to go with the fact that this is Ed Dunlop’s fourth time round with him and must know exactly how to prepare the horse.
5. Protectionist 56.5kg (11) – J – Ryan Moore T – A Wohler
Won consecutive Groups 2s in Germany and France before coming down under to run a handy fourth in the Herbet Power over 2400m at Caulfield. That looked a good Melbourne Cup trial, and he will only improve on that run. Has a leg up on a few of the over-seas raiders by having a start in Australia already, so looks a chance.
6. Sea Moon 56.5kg (18) – J – Tommy Berry T – Robert Hickmott – Scratched – read our story on it here
Looked out of sorts in the Caulfield Cup where he lead for a long way and weakened dramatically to finish last. May of needed that run for a bit of condition and seemed to peak after a couple of runs last preparation but is hard to take on current form.
7. Seismos 56kg (1) – J – Craig Newitt T – M Botti
Was only fair in the Caulfield Cup when running 15th, it has been suggested that he didn’t handle the tight Caulfield track. Form prior to that was ok but he has failed in his two attempts at 3200m and is hard to take on his last start.
8. Junoob 55.5kg (7) – J – Hugh Bowman T – C Waller
Has been in good form winning the Group 1 Metropolitan in Sydney before coming down to Melbourne and running a solid seventh in the Caulfield Cup and made the impression that he was looking for further but has only raced out to 2800m which was this time last year at Flemington where he ran an average race and had poor race recovery. He returns a different horse this year and I guess we won’t know until Tuesday evening whether or not he can stay the trip.
9. Royal Diamond 55.5kg (6) – J – Steve Arnold T – J P Murtagh
Two time winner 3200m or further, has mixed form recently in Ireland and that form looks hard to line up against the rest of these. Drawn a handy barrier which will help and watching the market may give the best idea on how connections feel he will run. Because there are too many unknowns we’re happy to take him on.
10. Gatewood 55kg (22) – J – William Buick T – John Gosden
Never raced past 2500m but bring excellent form from the UK and France where he has three wins and three seconds from his last six starts, five of which were black type races.
This reads as handy form leading into this but he has not raced for two months and may lack the condition to run out 3200m considering he has never raced past 2500m.
11. Mutual Regard 55kg (12) – J – Damien Oliver T – J P Murtagh
Two-time winner at 3200m and is another that brings good form from the UK/Ireland. Last start he beat Lord Van Percy by over a length carrying 61kg over 2800m, drops 6kg off that run and looks one of the main dangers in this race. Only query is the fact that he is unraced in two months.
12. Who Shot Thebarman 55kg (13) – J – Glen Boss T – C Waller
Won the Group 1 Auckland Cup over 3200m in New Zealand earlier this year. Has come back this preparation in great order winning twice at Flemington over 2000m and 2500m by a combined five lengths, then went to Caulfield and really struggled around the tight bend and never really got going in the straight and finished midfield.
He will relish coming back to Flemington and and has three time winning jockey on, looks a chance.
13. Willing Foe 55kg (17) – J – James McDonald T – Saeed Bin Suroor
Doesn’t have the best of form coming into this but drops 7kg from his last run and has the talented McDonald on-board. Still hard to recommend.
14. My Ambivalent 54.5 (4) – J – Andrea Atzeni T – Roger Varian
Form has been good in Ireland and the UK, last two starts were Group 1’s where she ran third and fourth over 2000m and 2400m. She has never raced past 3000m where she had one start and finished fifth in 2012 which is a while back so can’t take much from that. Form in general looks hard to line up against these but she looks to have talent and gets in light with a good barrier.
15. Precedence 54.5kg (20) – J – Michael Rodd T – Jandamp;B Cummings
This will be the nine-year-old’s fourth attempt at the cup running ninth, 11th and eighth so far. Will be his seventh attempt at 3200m where he has never placed. He has recently been ticking over nicely and should be hitting peak fitness now but he may find this a little tough. He is the great Bart Cummings’ only runner and he will be aiming for his 13th Melbourne Cup.
16. Brambles 54kg (21) – J – Luke Nolen T – Peter Moody
Ran in Saturday’s Mckinnon Stakes where he took a while to cross from barrier eight to lead most of the way until pressured at the turn and was only fair up the straight to finish mid-field although he was not knocked about much by Nolen. Unraced past 2400m which looks a major concern here, prefer others.
17. Mr O’Ceirin 54kg (19) – J – M Zahra T Ciaron Maher
Looks a bit outclassed in this event, unsuccessful in three attempts at Group 1s, form doesn’t read as the best, never raced past 2400m, wide barrier, hard to recommend.
18. Au Revoir 53.5kg (23) – J – Glyn Schofield T – A Fabre
Should be hitting peak fitness now, has been racing against some quality types in France lately. Was pretty good in the Moonee Valley cup last start and will only improve on that run and is probably looking for further, has some claims but has drawn very wide.
19. Lidari 53.5kg (10) – J – Ben Melham T – Peter Moody
Has been steady in this preparation but is untried past 2400m. Barrier 10 is a plus but he will need the run of his life to figure here, prefer others.
20. Opinion 53.5kg (14) – J – Tye Angland T – C Waller
Makes up three runners for Waller, has placed at 3200m but is coming off a very lacklustre performance in the Moonee Valley Cup. Run before that was good in Sydney and if you are willing to forget last start then he has claims but will need a big improvement.
21. Araldo 53kg (24) – J – Dwayne Dunn T – Michael Moroney
Last two starts have been excellent where he has flown from the back of the fields to finish pretty close in both The Metropolitan in Sydney then the Caulfield Cup in Melbourne. Extra distance should suit and he will likely go back from the wide barrier, look for him late down the long Flemington Straight.
22. Lucia Valentina 53kg (2) – J – Kerrin Mcevoy T – Kris Lees
One of the form locals this Spring, won the Turnbull Stakes before running third in the Caulfield Cup, she looks as though she can stay the trip and gets in very light. Tactics will be interesting from the inside barrier but she will likely go back worse than midfield and look for a rails run, big chance.
23. Unchain My Heart 51.5kg (5) – J – Dean Yendall T – D Hayes andamp; T Dabernig
Brings arguably the worst form out of all runners into this race and is hard to recommend. Does get in light with a good barrier and has won twice at 3200m but would be a big shock.
24. Signoff 51.5kg (16) – J – Joao Moreira T – Darren Weir
Last to gain entry by winning Saturdays Lexus Stakes in impressive fashion, winners from this race have a fair record in the Cup and his form looks excellent. Gets in extremely light and looks as though he will run the trip, has to be one of the main threats.
The way I see it; Who Shot Thebarman to beat Fawkner, Admire Rakti, Mutual Regard andamp; Araldo
You can find more of Richard’s work at www.partypunter.com.au
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