Race 9 at Moonee Valley on Saturday (5.40pm AEDTT) sees the running of our premier Weight For Age race at a distance of 2040m- the Cox Plate.

After a stunning and somewhat unexpected win by the Irish horse Adelaide last year, the locals have been well and truly put on notice in this edition, with three absolute quality European horses looking to further establish the dominance of the Northern Hemisphere middle distance horse.

Below is an appraisal of those three followed by some analysis of the local stars. First though some recent historical data updated from my article before the 2014 race.

Age
The race is definitely trending to younger age horses, with the last six editions going to either a three-year-old (2) or a four-year-old (4). Seven of the previous eight winners had been 5 years of age or older.

Over a 21-year period we have had seven four-year-old winners, six six-year-olds, four three-year-olds, three five-year-olds, and one nine-year-old. Interestingly the three five-year-old winners have been out-and-out champions – Sunline, Northerly and Might And Power!

Sex
Of the male winners, nine have been geldings, and seven have been either a colt or entire, but the latter has produced five of the last six winners.

The mares are of great interest with five winners in the last 20 years. Only champion mares Makybe Diva and Sunline (second win) have been aged over four, and even more pertinent is that all the mares that have won came off a 21-day break.

Best lead-up race
Going back 13 years with this but it is quite evenly spread between the Caulfield Stakes (four), Caulfield Cup (two), Caulfield Guineas (two), Turnbull Stakes (two), Champion Stakes (one), Toorak (one), Epsom (one).

Barrier draw
Going back to 2002, it is striking that we have 10 winners that drew in barriers 3-7. Nothing has won in that period from barriers 1-2 and only Shamus Award (barrier 3), who led in 2013 drew better than barrier 4 in that time.

Only Adelaide last year, Ocean Park in 2012 (9) and Pinker Pinker in 2011 have won from wider than barrier 7, and the latter got an A1 ride from Craig Williams who found the rail early.

Field position
There seems to be a theory that this race is won by leaders and on pacers but the record books don’t really support it. 12 of the last 21 winners have won on the pace or from just behind the pace, while 9 of 20 have come from a midfield or further back position.

Breeding
Seven of the last twenty winners have Zabeel/Sir Tristram blood going back no more three generations. Three of the last eleven winners (Shamus Award, Pinker Pinker and Savabeel) have a mother sired by Success Express, and two of the last seven winners (Shamus Award and Palos Verdes) have had a link to Snippets from the sire of El Segundo (Pins) and the damsire of Shamus Award (Snizel/Snippets Lass)

Average winning odds
Give or take 50 cents, I have it at $10.50 over a 20-year period.

Likely race tempo: where the speed in the race will be
There does seem to be a larger than usual amount of horses capable of racing on the pace in this race, with seven of the fourteen runners capable of doing so. They are The Cleaner, Highland Reel, Arod, Gailo Chop, Complacent, Mourinho and Pornichet.

Even Criterion and possibly Fawkner (wide barrier) can take up a forward position if required. This should ensure a better than average tempo and is good news for the likes of most of the local gallopers and suitable to the likes of Kermadec, Preferment and Winx.

Criterion looks the horse to be most advantaged given his barrier draw and the fact that his overseas rivals appear to be all on pacers. Jockey Michael Walker has options, but surely the preferred one would be to stalk the pace rather than be right on it?

Analysis: The Internationals

HIGHLAND REEL is the most fancied of the overseas brigade and he deserves that status. Not only is he trained by last years winning mentor Aiden O’Brien, he is also sired by the same horse as Adelaide (Galileo), and is the same age and gender coming into the race, being a European three year old Colt (4yo horse here).

His mother Hveger has a distinct Australian connection being a full sister to Caulfield Cup winner Elvstroem, and a half sister to Doncaster, and Ascot Queen Anne Stakes winner Haradasun.

He won the exact same race that Adelaide did in North America (Group 1 Secretariat Stakes) in August this year, but did so in much more emphatic fashion, leading all of the way and finishing 5.5 lengths in front of the runner up. His time there was slightly faster than what Adelaide recorded in 2014, and unlike that horse he seemed to have no trouble whatsoever in handling a tight turning track, not dissimilar to Moonee Valley.

After that, he returned home to Ireland to run in the Champions Stakes at Group 1 level to finish a four-length fifth to the eventual Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe winner Golden Horn. Now that might not seem a run of hugely significant merit but in world terms this year it is excellent. The track that day wasn’t rated as dry either, and had it been he may well have finished a little closer.

His three worst career runs appear to have been on tracks that have had some give in them, so barring any significant rain before Saturday, Australian conditions should suit him admirably. A closer look at his career form reveals a runner up effort behind the French three year old New Bay beaten 1.5 lengths in the French Derby.

New Bay was beaten 2.5L into third in the Arc behind Golden Horn which again affirms that Highland Reel is probably a four length inferior animal to probably the worlds’ best 2000-2400m horse, hardly a disgrace. And he is the only one of this year’s Internationals to have been successful in winning overseas.

There doesn’t seem to be a weakness in his profile (excepting a wet track), and his on pace style of racing should be perfect for Moonee Valley and this race in particular. The $5.50 on offer about him is probably a bit of overs. I’d rate his chances a bit better than that at $4.50. Here he is winning the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington:

AROD is a year older than Highland Reel but is also a stallion of extremely high quality. Just lately he has been mixing it with the best 1600-1800m horse in Europe by the name of Solow. That French galloping grey horse recently made it nine wins in a row, and was head and shoulders above Hong Kong champion Able Friend at Ascot in June, in the Queen Anne Stakes.

This horse got within half a length of Solow at his last run at Goodwood at level weights with 2.25 lengths back to the third horse. All his form this year has been between a mile and 1810m but it’s important to note he is 2/2 at this distance winning by 5 lengths and 9 lengths, albeit in lesser class.

He is a very consistent horse evidenced by a career of 4 wins and 5 placings from 11 starts, and despite having won on a rain affected track his trainer has mentioned that he needs a dry surface, thus he should be suited by the prevailing conditions on Saturday. Not only that, he too is an on pace type of horse which will be advantageous around the tight Moonee Valley circuit.

There seems little doubt he can compete with the best in Europe, so he has to be a leading hope here. Again he seems value at a $9 quote. I’d rate him about a $7.50 chance.

Here he is finishing second to Solow in the Sussex Stakes:

GAILO CHOP is a French four year old but unlike most imports that come here from France for our big races, he is a gelding rather than a stallion.

He is lightly raced but has an excellent record of seven wins and three placings from 12 starts. Similar to Arod his recent form includes a 1.5 length second to that very in-form horse Solow, and two starts back he was only 1 length astern of Criterion in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Ascot, and he won his last start in France on a Heavy track by 4 lengths.

He did travel to America in 2014 and contested the Belmont Stakes, where Adelaide finished runner up. He was beaten 4.3L on that occasion so the twice he has travelled (Britain and USA), he hasn’t done anything spectacular, but he did have excuses on both occasions. He won his last start by four lengths prior to coming to Australia for his new owners, the well known OTI syndicate.

They are quite happy for him to be racing at Moonee Valley and not Flemington as the surface tends to be a lot more forgiving, and it does seem his best form in Europe might be on Slow and Heavy tracks (4-1/6). That’s hardly conclusive that he needs it wet though given his dry track statistics read 3-2/7.

His record between the distances of 2000m to 2100m reads 5/7, which is more prolific than any other horse in the race. And for some reason, French horses seem to race very well in their first start in Australia. Consider the following list;

American – Won Geelong Cup first visit, and Moonee Valley Cup second visit;
Dunaden – Won Geelong Cup first visit, and Caulfield Cup second visit;
Shahwardi – Won Herbert Power handicap only visit.

Even Adelaide came via France to win this race last year, and Protectionist came via France to run a good fourth in the Herbert Power before taking out the Melbourne Cup last year.

The flip side of that argument is that all of Gailo Chop’s wins have been in France on much more spacious tracks than Moonee Valley. But his travel to America, and his run at a tighter Belmont Park track there might stand him in good stead. He had no real luck in that race either, sitting three wide in a leader dominated race, and should have finished a little closer.

That record of French horses in Australia is encouraging and any rain around, or a dampened surface would definitely suit. He generally tends to race on the pace too, but a lot of other speed in the race will probably mean he will race in behind the leaders. That could suit him given the strength of his 2000m form.

I agree with the betting market (in regard to him being the third favoured of the International trio), but $26 seems to be very generous odds. He was only a one length inferior horse to Criterion at their only meeting, and that horse is pushing for favouritism in the race. I would rate Gailo Chop as about a $12 chance and even shorter if there happened to be any rain (unlikely).

Here is his last start win:

Analysis: The locals

CRITERION is the Australian horse with the runs on the board. He scored a great lead up win two weeks ago in the Caulfield Stakes after returning from International duty and the formline is strong considering Mongolian Khan came in third and went on to win the Caulfield Cup last week.

Since joining the David Hayes stable he has two excellent Group 1 placings in Hong Kong and two Group 1 wins and one placing in Australia. Two runs in England at Group 1 level saw him beaten 4 lengths and 5.5 lengths in June and August at this distance but the quality of the competition was high (Golden Horn and Free Eagle).

It was a great return by him at Caulfield and one suspects that he has found a length or two since his 1.5 length defeat in this race last year. That might be enough to see him salute this time around and he should be fitter for that last run. Drawn perfectly I would rate him a $5.50 chance in this.

HAPPY TRAILS ran a nice second to Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes and has been beaten less than a length the last twice he has contested this race. He isn’t getting any younger at eight years of age, but his trainer seems to have him peaking off an almost identical preparation to last year. This is his fourth attempt at this race though and by far the worst barrier he has drawn. That will make it tough for him and it’s hard to seem him turning the tables on Criterion anyway given that horse should improve fitness wise. 25-1.

THE CLEANER: Is the Tasmanian champ and incredibly, he seems to be getting better with age. It’s quite possible he too is a length or two better horse compared to this time last year and his very likeable down to earth trainer Mick Burles has kept him a lot fresher this year. He comes into the race with only four runs this preparation, quite different to the seven he had last year.

Once again his seeing dislike for Caulfield surfaced last start where he couldn’t beat home his arch rival Mourinho, but his record at Moonee Valley of 5/8 is far superior to his 0/4 at that circuit.

His fourth up record reads 4-2/6 and he has drawn way better than the barrier 14 he was forced to contend with last year. He needs to find a further length or two to win in all reality (beaten 3.5 lengths last year), but it’s possible with a lighter preparation, and he may well look the winner before the turn. He looks a great chance of running at least a place at generous odds and I’d rate him about a $14 chance here.

MOURINHO is a very similar proposition to The Cleaner with a very similar liking of the Moonee Valley track. He was a bit unfortunate to miss a start in this race last year, but comes into the race in slightly better form (than he would have last year) off a win last start. He has a wide barrier to contend with, and I’m a bit unsure whether or not the four week break between runs is ideal for him. I can’t quite see him winning, but he keeps surprising, and a good run in transit could see him right in the thick of things. I’d rate him a $20 hope.

COMPLACENT missed a run in the Caulfield Cup last start and what sweet revenge a win in this race would be. His form is exceptional this Spring after nearly two years off, including a win over Kermadec and a one length defeat by the Turnbull Stakes winner Preferment conceding that horse 1kg. That ledger is balanced in this race and he has drawn well to make an impact. Another on pacer who should put himself into the race from barrier 6. He is a $16 chance for mine.

PREFERMENT was saved for this race instead of running in the Caulfield Cup and he has the right historical profile to win, being a son of champion sire Zabeel and a four year old stallion. He is one horse that thrives on dry tracks so is very likely to get conditions to suit and a solid tempo up front should bring him into the race. That is, if barrier nine doesn’t cruel his chances which may be the case.

If he gets into a position in the race with some cover he looks a definite winning hope. A $12 chance in my opinion so perhaps a bit of overs at present.

KERMADEC was slightly disappointing last start in the Caulfield Stakes, but it was his first run at 2000m, and it did represent a jump in distance of 400m. He too has an awkward barrier to contend with and he might need some rain to be a winning chance. He is the right age and gender though and the extra cushion in the Moonee Valley surface could be advantageous. Chris Waller has three horses in the race and he rates him as slightly the best of them.

WINX is currently the best mare in Australia by some way and her finishing bursts have so excited racegoers at her past four starts. This is her acid test but she could be the one who gets the last crack at them if it becomes a war of attrition up front, a probable scenario in my opinion. A four year old mare off a twenty one day break has strong historical precedents. The distance is no problem for her and she handles all track conditions.

The one concern could well be barrier one (terrible historically) and that factor seems to be accentuated given she has drawn barriers 14, 10, 11 and 12 at her past 4 starts. How will she fare from an inside draw on a tight turning track in a congested field? I guess we have to leave that to Hugh Bowman who has elected to ride her in preference to Preferment. I have to include her as a winning chance, and if she does triumph it should be an awesome sight. I’d rate her a $12 chance so the market is well short of where it needs to be for her.

I can’t quite factor in either Fawkner or Pornichet off very disappointing efforts in the Caulfield Stakes. Hartnell seems a little down on his Autumn form this Spring but has drawn well and deserves some consideration. His form is actually much better on right handed tracks than in the Melbourne direction.

Conclusion and selections:
I’m expecting the overseas form to come up trumps again this year, and no real joy for the locals in selecting my top 4. None of the international contingent are what you would call superstar but they are a bit closer to the elite world level at this stage than most of our local gallopers.

That’s not to say we can’t win the race this year because we do have some very promising gallopers who might be about to stake their claim at top level performers.

1. Highland Reel has to be top pick. It’s not difficult to select him given his perfect barrier and slightly superior form to that of his stablemate Adelaide who won last year. Same trainer, same sire and his win in the Secretariat augurs well for this track. The only concern with him could be how he is ridden. If a speed battle ensues up front especially between he and The Cleaner, I doubt he can sustain the effort and win.

2. Arod looks a world class horse who might still be improving. The narrow defeat by Solow might be better form than the Highland Reel behind Golden Horn, but not sure he can give his younger rival 3kg. He has drawn to advantage and the booking of Craig Williams should be a bonus (given his riding record in this race), as should the prevailing track conditions.

3. Criterion looks the one to beat given his International standing, the win in the Caulfield Stakes, and the fact he has home advantage. Jockey Michael Walker is in hot form, and so is the stable off a win in the Geelong Cup today. If you were purely to pick the winner according to the speed map he would be it. There are plenty of on pacers in the race and he could be the one to benefit. He can also race near the pace if required so has all the bases covered. Whether he is quite classy enough to beat Highland Reel and Arod is debatable though providing both those horses enjoy good runs in transit.

4. Gailo Chop could be the surprise packet with his French connection being quite enticing. On the world stage his form isn’t that far inferior to Criterion so he has to be given some hope at generous odds.

The best of the Aussie contingent appear to be Preferment and Winx. The former looks very good on a historical basis, and the latter has that booming finish and is capable of blowing this field away, if she gets a soft run, and gets out at the right time in a high speed race. Neither horse has really proved itself at this WFA level yet though so I can’t quite have them in my top four.

Bet Suggestion
Back Highland Reel to win and quinella him with Arod. Add a box trifecta including Criterion, they are the three horses we know are world class. Gailo Chop is not far behind them on that score, and surely an Each Way bet is warranted at his inflated odds.