Ahoy, Roarers! One of the premier race days in Melbourne for the autumn is Blue Diamond Stakes Day, with the feature race being the $1 million Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m).
I really like Concealer in the race. Her run first-up in the Prelude was full of merit when second to Samara Dancer after settling near last in the run.
There is plenty of upside with her, Mark Zahra sticks and you know she will very strong at the end of a hard 1200 metres. Happy to be with her.
I think the main threat is Flying Artie despite the alarming betting drift. He won the boys’ edition of the Prelude and was fantastic in winning there given he was tardy away and had to cover additional ground. I think he has his stablemate and favourite Extreme Choice covered and I will respect the judgement of Damien Oliver.
I think the value lies with Valliano. He does have a 1200-metre on the board, and at the track and distance when winning the Inglis race. The form looks a tad suspect, but he was strong on the line and his form prior does read well. Can’t believe some agencies are offering $26-plus. He should be a $10 chance.
Another Group 1 on the same program is the Futurity Stakes (1400m) and it looks as though it is at the mercy of Turn Me Loose. He was outstanding when resuming in the CF Orr (1400m) where he ran along at a solid tempo as well as pulling hard, but he kicked on strongly for third to Suavito. The lead looks his on a platter, and with the run under the belt, I will be a bit surprised if he gets beat.
If there will be a threat, it will come courtesy of Boban. Looking back at the CF Orr, his run wasn’t too bad at all. But there are a couple of big positives here. One is that he draws a good gate where he will be put to sleep. The other positive is Glyn Schofield jumps back on and the horse just doesn’t produce his best when other riders are aboard.
I think there is a big watch on The United States. He probably still has a couple of screws loose upstairs but there is no denying how good his engine is. He can sprint very well fresh and despite not being suited at weight-for-age, he can charge home with the strong tempo in front of him. Doubt he can win, but he is a definite must for exotics.
The third and final major of the afternoon at Caulfield is the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), and it is wide open. If Bounding is to ever win a major Down Under, she gets her chance here. Resumes for Team Snowden off the back of a slick trial win at Randwick where she won by five lengths and ran very sharp time. Should get a lovely run off the speed and is near unbeatable when produced fresh.
Heatherly doesn’t have the class, but her speed and 50 kilograms brings her right into contention. She won the Rubiton at the track and distance a fortnight back and bolted in, running the time to back it up. She’ll lead comfortably here and give them something to chase. The last 150 metres against some crack sprinters here will be the acid test.
In terms of value, I think Vezelay represents that. She is a very good mare who resumes here for Team Corstens after winning the Allinghi at the track and distance on Caulfield Cup Day. She has impressed me at the Flemington jump-outs, and despite the wide gate I think she is a definite winning chance. Also include Gregers, The Quarterback, Atmospherical and Griante.
The feature race at Randwick is the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) where Winx completely dominates the betting. On form, she wins. But she isn’t worth backing at the price, so I’ll put Hartnell on top.
I was hard on his back in every run during the spring, and while he didn’t win, he ran some fantastic races. I have liked what I have seen in the trials, he ran well in this race last year first-up and will eat up the Randwick mile.
Winx is the darling of Australian racing at the moment and she was just awesome in winning the Apollo Stakes (1400m) first-up, aided by a lovely ride from Hugh Bowman. Nothing from that race will turn the tables on her here, she is fitter, suited up in trip… there are just no negatives with her, apart from the price.
I think the forgotten horse is Mongolian Khan. You have to remember he is the Caulfield Cup winner, and a dominant one at that. He had a bad bout of colic and was on his death bed, but recovered, is back and did look sharp in a trial win back home in New Zealand. There is absolutely no speed engaged here, so if Kerrin McEvoy rolls this horse to the front, he will give plenty of cheek.
Best bet: Randwick, Race 5, Ghisoni (7)
The more you put on, the more you get back. Star filly who is two from two and gee her recent trial here just oozed quality and looked as good as stablemate Exopshere at the trials.
If Ghisoni gets normal luck, I just think her potential and ability will be too much for this lot.
Trial watch: Randwick, Race 8, Silverball (11)
This horse has the potential to be a real star and a Group 1 horse. He has had two trials leading in for his return to racing.
The second trial was solid, but it’s the first trial that caught my attention, running a close up second to recent Rosehill winner Himalaya Dream. Both trials were run in fast time, so he will be ready to go fresh.
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