Race 7 at Flemington on Saturday (4.30pm AEDT) is the Group 1 Australian Guineas a 1600m race for three year olds.
I doubt we have ever seen a better line up in it’s thirty-one year history, and the stage is set for a fascinating battle between most of the best three-year old male and female horses racing in Australasia at present.
Only crack Sydney Caulfield Guineas winning three-year old Press Statement would have made the race more interesting, but he is absent, taking his place in the Group 1Randwick Guineas instead. He is quite likely to meet a few of these horses in the weeks ahead.
Aussie racegoers get their first view of the ultra impressive New Zealand Colt Xtravagant who will start a deserved favourite. He has won four of his last five starts with a combined winning margin of just over twenty lengths, and it has been a long time since we have seen a horse win two of his past three starts by eight lengths or more.
Visually he takes your breath away. The acceleration from up on the pace is one thing, but his very noticeable ability to relax at high speed is what really impresses, and is what sets him up for a sustained burst of speed late in his races. He isn’t a big horse but he keeps himself out of trouble with enviable gate speed and an ability to race right on the pace. His loss two starts ago is the only blimp on the radar in recent times, and it seems we can put that defeat down to a shifty track surface.
It looked business as usual for him that day, until he hit the home straight where his normal acceleration just wasn’t in evidence. That performance seems a distance memory now after his win against older horses in a Weight For Age race against older horses at Te Rapa three weeks ago.
A repeat of that 8.5L devastation would see him win this race in all likelihood, but he needs to have coped with the travel over, and to handle the spacious Flemington circuit on Saturday. He is a full brother to the reasonably well known Roger James trained He’s Remarkable, who actually did win a race at this track and distance, before a highly controversial protest defeat in the Railway Stakes over in Perth. He gets his chance to avenge that group one loss for his brother here, and if all is well he is going to take some beating from an ideal barrier.
The first horse he is probably going to have to get past is the Darren Weir-trained colt Mahuta. That’s not an easy task given no horse has managed to get do so (in the straight) at his past six starts, an amazing winning sequence which started upon the application of Blinkers. He is going to be a tough nut to crack, and seems to be a little underrated in the betting market. He is really the only colt in the race that you can say has a possible edge over the better Melbourne Fillies in this race, a feat achieved when winning the Sandown Guineas, easily relegating Don’t Doubt Mamma into third place. It’s debatable whether she runs a strong 1600m, but nevertheless Mahuta did it the hard way in that race from a wide barrier. He is a winner and only a long campaign without a decent break would prevent him from being ultra competitive in this race.
The Mick Price trained Victorian Derby winner Tarzino is a favourite of mine, and the big horse looks to have come back as well, if not better than he was in the Spring. He had very little luck in the Caulfield Guineas in October, but found his niche when stepping up to the longer distances culminating in that Derby win. He couldn’t beat the filly Jameka in the Aami Vase at Moonee Valley (2040m), so the jury is still out a little, as to his true quality, and especially his ability to win a high class race such as this, at a distance that could be well short of his best. He may well be a Flemington horse though, and a truly run race could see him shake the life out of this race late.
Vanbrugh from Sydney is probably the hardest horse to line up. He failed first up in Sydney behind Press Statement, but has drawn a much better barrier here. At face value you have to question what he has beaten in Sydney, but he is trained by Chris Waller who rarely has his horses primed for a first up assignment, so he could improve vastly second up. He is also unbeaten in three starts at 1600m or further, and on that statistic alone he is well over the odds.
The fillies, with the possible exception of Sailing By, look to have a real chance of putting one over the colts and gelding in this race. She meets Mahuta 2.5kg worse for a narrow defeat last start, so has the job ahead on paper. She has was also second best to Tarzino in the Spring with a little weight relief from that horse.
Jameka can’t be underestimated after a VRC Oaks win, and a recent effort first up which was sound. The big thing in her favour now is the weight drop and more distance, and punters should be aware that the fillies in the Vanity last start at Flemington ran slightly faster time than the colts in the CS Hayes Stakes on the same day. That is significant for her as she drops 4kg, which should give her an edge over the majority of colts that go up in weight in this race from the CS Hayes.
Ditto for Perth Filly Perfect Reflection who seemed to have her chance in the Vanity, but also drops 4kg here. She wasn’t far away though and the ace up trainer Darren Weirs’ sleeve could be the inclusion of Blinkers, which have apparently improved her in trackwork this week. She is already a Group one winner in Perth and had to beat the Dual Oaks and Derby winner Delicacy in the process.
Former New Zealand Filly Risque could be the surprise packet after a nice win down the straight her at her first run in Australia. That race was arguably too short a distance for her, and although she is a little hard to line up in this race, she does have a win in NZ over Son Of Maher, who did beat Xtravagant home in the Levin Classic at Trentham. The second and third placegetters out of her last start win have since franked the form to some extent by running second and fourth respectively at Group 2 level behind Catch A Fire in the Angus Armanasco Stakes. Pasadena Girl was third in that race and had form around Jameka last Spring. She has had the advantage of a run here (a plus against Xtravagant), and at least a placing is definitely on the cards for her.
Of the rest Palentino definitely has claims after a controversial protest loss in the CS Hayes. I don’t think Tivaci should have got the verdict there, and Palentino meets him 2.5kg better, and most of the other males from that race on better weight terms. That also puts him in the ballpark with Jameka off a 1kg weight drop (she has a 4kg drop but was beaten a length last start). A wide barrier could be his nemesis, but jockey Mark Zahra will be desperately seeking a change of fortune here after the race was taken off him last time.
River Wild was the hard luck story in the CS Hayes, having missed the start badly, and could be the improver if he jumps out of the barrier better this time. Gai Waterhouse won this race with Wandjina last year, and this colt has the typical on pace qualities that most of her Group one winners possess.
It’s going to be a fantastic race to watch, and a great pointer to other races this Spring. The tempo is going to be all important but it does seem likely that the race will be truly run and every horse should get it’s chance providing there is no on pace track bias, which is often the case in big race meetings at Flemington.
It’s very hard to tip against Xtravagant here. He looks to be the best NZ three year sprinter/miler to visit our shores for a very long time, and if he brings his A game to Flemington it’s going to be sight to behold.
Mahuta has to be respected because of his iron horse status and infallible record since the Blinkers went on. He will race on the pace, and will stare down any horse that threatens his supremacy.
If these two horses, along with River Wild do take each other on up front it, could set the race up for a late closer. Given that scenario I’d expect both Perfect Reflection and Risque to be suited with their lighter weights, and Tarzino and Vanbrugh to run eyecatchers in preparation for the longer races
Tips:
Bet Suggestion:
Back Xtravagant straight out at $3.50 or better, and at least save on Mahuta at $9 or better. An Each Way bet on Risque could also pay dividends at a better than double figure quote.
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