The world’s richest two year old race is here again, to be staged as Rosehill Gardens at Rosehill on Saturday (Race 7 at 4.30pm AEDT).

Below are the past thirteen winners of the race followed by gender (colt, gelding or filly), career form, barrier, Trainer, Position at 800m and turn, starting price, and track rating.

• 2015 VANCOUVER 2c 111 (16) Gai Waterhouse (7-7) $2.50 (Good)
• 2014 MOSSFUN 2f 1111 (11) M, W & J Hawkes (13-9) $5.50 (Heavy)
• 2013 OVERREACH 2f 211 (1) Gai Waterhouse (2-3) $2.75 (Slow)
• 2012 PIERRO 2c 111 (1) Gai Waterhouse (3-4) $6.50 (Good)
• 2011 SEPOY 2c 11112 (8) Peter Snowden (3-2) $2.75 (Dead)
• 2010 CRYSTAL LILY 2f 231611 (1) M.Ellerton & S. Zahra (4-3) $6 (Slow)
• 2009 PHELAN READY 2g 3413 (16) B & J McLaughlin (14-14) $26 (Heavy)
• 2008 SEBRING 2c 111 (5) Gai Waterhouse (9-9) $6 (Heavy)
• 2007 FORENSICS 2f 124 (1) John Hawkes (5-4) $13 (Good)
• 2006 MISS FINLAND 2f 1124 (7) David Hayes (12-12) $6.50 (Good)
• 2005 STRATUM 2c 521 (6) Paul Perry (3-2) $10 (Dead)
• 2004 DANCE HERO 2g (2) 3111 Gai Waterhouse (2-1) $5.50 (Good)
• 2003 POLAR SUCCESS 2f (14) 12121 Graeme Rogerson (1-3) $11 (Good)

Pertinent Statistics:

A) 9/13 had Danehill breeding on either side of pedigree- 5/13 sired by sons of Danehill.

B) 9/13 drew barriers 1-8

C) 13/13 Had at least 3 starts prior to winning the race.

D) 11/13 either won or place d last startE) 7 Male winners (2 Geldings) and 6 female winners in this period though fillies did win three prior runnings 2000-2002

E) 7 Male winners (2 Geldings) and 6 female winners in this period though fillies did win three prior runnings 2000-200

F) 5/13 trained by Gai Waterhouse including 3 of last 4 winners

G) The last Blue Diamond Stakes winner to win the Golden Slipper directly out of that race was Courtza in 1989. Only 5 horses have completed the double in 45 years, Sepoy the last of them in 2011H) Average winning price in this period is $8

H) Average winning price in this period is $8

Times:
As I mentioned in a couple of articles last year, I like to compare the two year old times with the older horses at the same track and distance (if available), on the same day.

It gives us a good guide to the overall ability of our younger horses, and a number of these have performed well in that regard.

Probably the most proficient has been this years early favourite Extreme Choice. His three winning efforts have all had s merit, and his last start Blue Diamond win was almost certainly the most significant. He bettered 1.09.00 for the 1200m at Caulfield, and not too many two year olds have done that in the modern era. Only one has bettered his time in the past decade, and that was Sepoy in 2011.

That year Sepoy ran 0.82s faster than the three year old 1200m winner Stirling Grove. This year Extreme Choice ran 0.58s faster than three year old winner Santa Ana Lane. Overall, Extreme Choice ran 0.40s slower than Sepoy did when winning the Blue Diamond, but when compared to the Group One Oakleigh Plate on those days, there is only 0.10 of a second between these two in ability (Sepoy slightly superior).

In reality, this comparison highlights how good Extreme Choice is, because Sepoy was pretty dominant in his year, and would almost certainly have a mortgage on this year’s race, if you could turn the clock back. This argument also highlights the prospects of his stablemate Flying Artie, who endured a very wide run in the Blue Diamond when a 1.8 length runner up to Extreme Choice.

You can’t take too much away from the winner who also sat three wide the whole race, but had Flying Artie received a more economical run, and not been pushed so wide on the turn, he would have finished a lot closer without any doubt.

Flying Artie left the third horse 4.3 lengths astern which is a very good sign for both horses. Coincidentally Sepoy won his Blue Diamond by 4.5 lengths. The similarities are quite startling and if both horses have trained on well since they could dominate this years race.

Other two year olds in the race to run excellent time in comparison to older horses this season are Kiss And Make Up, Capitalist, Good Standing, Defcon and Yankee Rose.

Kiss And Make Up ran over a second faster than the filly French Fern did at Randwick last start in the Todman Stakes. And in the process he bettered the time of Group 3 Mares winner Savoureux at the same distance that day. Interestingly Vancouver was much quicker than Kiss And Make Up in the same race last year (1.08.83 compared to 1.09.57), but was actually slower than the Group 3 mares winner Griante on that same day last year, although I think it’s fair to say that the pace was slicker early in the Griante Race in comparison to the Savoureux one. Looking at all the times on these respective days an educated guess would be that the 2015 Todman Stakes was run on a slightly faster track than in 2016 but Vancouver was definitely superior from a times perspective.

But apparently Kiss And Make up was running into a headwind in the straight, and it was a massive improvement on the quite pedestrian time he ran on debut. If he improves again in this race he is going to take a hell of a lot of beating.

Capitalist ran a respectable time when winning on debut at Randwick and was half a second faster than a three year old Maiden when he won the Magic Millions Classic at Wyong last last year. His MM winning time at the Gold Coast was excellent on paper, but not quite so good when you compare it to other times at the distance that day. He was a very short priced favourite in the Todman Stakes but was well beaten by Kiss And Make Up. Did he run to very nearly his best that day, and was not quite good enough to beat a superior horse? You can always forgive a good horse one below par run though, and it was his first start in six weeks, exposed to a headwind.

Good Standing was placed in a comparatively fast race on debut behind Yankee Rose, and ran far better time in the Skyline Stakes than the filly Scarlet Rain did in the Sweet Embrace at Randwick three weeks ago. He was only 0.17 of a second inferior to BM84 winner Meursault that day, but was superior over the last 600m. He wasn’t fully extended either so could have gone a little quicker. He is an improver, and there was a Twitter message from a trackwork clocker recently, that suggested he will win a Group One race sooner rather than later, going on what he has done since.

Defcon ran faster time in the Black Opal Stakes at Canberra last start than both the Maiden winner and BM65 winner. His last 600m time was inferior to both so I’m not totally sure how much emphasis to place on the effort. He missed the start badly that day which might actually be a blessing in view of the Golden Slipper. Trainer Peter Snowden now knows that he can be patiently ridden, and that could be a huge asset if the Slipper is run at a fast pace this year.

Yankee Rose is the interesting one coming into this race first up, and with Blinkers On first time. She likes to race back early. She ran faster time than a Class 3 and a BM78 at her second start, and defeated Good Standing in the process. There was no fluke in that time , because she did run a faster last 600m to go with the superior overall figure. Third and Fourth from that race are yet to race again which could have given us an even better guide, but she did beat the handy Telperion on debut (also in this race). She looks the big value play in the race with Hong Kong based Zac Purton in the saddle from a good barrier.

Breeding:

As mentioned above the Danehill bloodline is very prevalent in the modern era of Golden Slipper winning two year olds, and other Group one two year old events in Australia in the past decade or so. Half of

This years field have this breeding on either side of their pedigree- Extreme Choice, Defcon, Kiss And Make Up, Astern, Telperion, Scarlet Rain, Calliope, and Honesty Prevails

The sire More Than Ready produced both 2009 and 2008 winners Sebring and Phelan Ready (both on Heavy tracks), and is probably the second best two year old Group winning sire in the country over the past eight to nine years. He is represented this year by the Gai Waterhouse trained Kiss And Make Up, whose Dam Fashions Afield finished second in the 2005 Golden Slipper to Stratum.

Last years winner Vancouver was the first to be sired by American horse Medaglia D’oro who is represented this year by the Goldolphin owned Astern. Like Vancouver he Astern is a son of a Danehill mare, and similarly comes into the race unbeaten. Uncannily he will start from the exact same extreme outside barrier (16) as Vanouver did , if the emergency runner Moqueen fails to get a start.

Another American sire Artie Schiller has both Flying Artie and Good Standing represented this year, and both are very good winning chances. Interestingly Artie Schiller is a half brother to Medaglia D’oro, both sons of former Irish Stallion El Prado who was the champion Irish two year old of 1991. Could we be looking at the next sireline dynasty if one of these three colts can win?

Also very interesting to read this week that the grandma of Flying Artie (Parkhill’s Flyer) was a half sister to the great Better Loosen Up who passed away on Wednesday aged 30. What a great tribute it would be to that horse if Flying Artie is able to win the Golden Slipper of 2016.

Wet Track:
At this stage the signs are promising that we won’t be racing on a track worse than a Soft 5 or 6. If the rain does come though it does become a bit of a guessing game. Scarlet Rain has already won on a Heavy track, as has Star Turn. French Fern is a Soft track winner.

Defcon has placed on Heavy going and Kiss And Make Up would be my pick if the track did detiorate. He is sired by More Than Ready who also produced Sebring and Phelan Ready to win on bog tracks in recent years. Mum Fashions Afield won the Sires Produce on a rain affected track that was officially described as Slow, but the time indicates the track was, at the very least, bordering on Heavy.

Analysis:

This is really intriguing Golden Slipper with two Victorians heading the market, something that hasn’t happened for many years. It’s also very unusual to have so many horses coming into the race with realistic chances off only two career starts, and most of the favoured horses have fared very well after the barrier draw, making it quite difficult to separate them.

Looking at the historical precedents I think Extreme Choice looks the likely winner. It’s been a while since a Blue Diamond winner has won this race coming direct from Melbourne, but it should be remembered that he did win on debut in Sydney, which could prove invaluable. He had the Blue Diamond won on the turn, and the time figures and margin to third in that race suggest he is good enough to win a Golden Slipper. He is Ideally drawn and should get the right run in the race just off the leaders.

Kiss And Make Up has the Gai Waterhouse factor on his side, and looks very hard to beat with any further improvement. Above all he is bred to win this race, and any give in the track should assist him. One more start would have been ideal, to toughen him up further for the race. He is bound to be put under a lot more pressure in this than his previous start, and how he reacts to that is going to be critical. He looks a big strong colt though who will take no prisoners

Flying Artie has to be a big chance of upsetting his stablemate off his Blue Diamond effort. He proved his class in that race and has drawn a lot better this time to get a perfect run into the straight. He looks the ideal Golden Slipper type who can finish hard from a midfield position. No experience right handed is the negative.

Good Standing could be the surprise packet, and he does the fitness edge on his debut nemesis YANKEE ROSE. The latter looks outstanding value at $30 plus though, and ASTERN has claims, if only because of his very similar profile to half brother Vancouver who won this race last year.

Capitalist shouldn’t be forgotten, and should benefit with some early cover in the race from barrier two.

1. Kiss And Make Up
2. Extreme Choice
3. Flying Artie
4. Yankee Rose

Bet Suggestion:
Extreme Choice and Flying Artie area about their right price in the pre-post betting market but there is plenty of value to be found outside of that pairing. Top selection Kiss And Make appeals at a $9 quote (especially if he improves again off his last run) and will probably start at about the average winning price (past thirteen years).

Yankee Rose looks great value at a healthy $31 quote for an Each Way interest.