The Melbourne Cup is the showpiece event for Australian racing on the world stage. Ask just about anyone around the world about it and I am sure you’ll get a good story.
The story last year was Michelle Payne defying history and becoming the first female hoop to win the race that stops a nation. Come 3pm Tuesday, more history will be made.
» 2016 Melbourne Cup
» The full starting field
» How to watch the 2016 Melbourne Cup
» Complete Melbourne Cup raceday schedule
Here is my look at each of the 24 runners in the great race.
1. Big Orange (7)
Why can he win: Tough on pace stayer who comes here in better form compared to his attempt at the race last year. Has really kicked on strongly to win his past two, albeit gifted soft leads.
Why can’t he win: As a rule, I don’t like tipping horses who have previously failed in the Melbourne Cup. I think the 2015 Cup can be an exception because it was a non-event speed wise. In saying that, this horse, who did set that speed, will cop more pressure this time around.
2. Our Ivanhowe (6)
Why can he win: Thought his effort in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) was very good behind Jameka. Got held up badly on the turn and couldn’t build up the required momentum but was lovely to the line.
Why can’t he win: If we get a rock hard track, his chances aren’t great. But the forecast is for rain on the day, so if you do like him, start doing rain dances.
3. Curren Mirotic (18)
Why can he win: Got outstanding two-mile form in Japan in some high-class races. And we know the record the Japanese have when they send horses over.
Why can’t he win: Past his best, drawn wide, work has been terrible, form has been awful recently and he hasn’t won in three years. Happy to leave him out.
4. Bondi Beach (5)
Why can he win: Aidan O’Brien is the best trainer in the world and when he targets horses for big races, you always have to respect the stock he brings down under.
Why can’t he win: I think his form isn’t as strong as what it was when he came over last year. Plus he has no turn of foot, which is the real worry.
5. Exospheric (13)
Why can he win: Great Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup working to the line with purpose behind Jameka. Can only see upside.
Why can’t he win: He wanted to really lay in over the concluding stages of that race. He can’t win a Melbourne Cup doing that.
6. Hartnell (12)
Why can he win: He is the favourite and rightfully so. Outside Winx, he has been the best horse in Australia this Spring. He has a lethal turn of foot and is a winner at two miles when racing overseas.
Why can’t he win: The Cox Plate run… did it break his heart? He’ll either bounce off that and blow them away here or sook up and run a shocker.
7. Who Shot Thebarman (20)
Why can he win: Quality stayer for Chris Waller who toughed it out strongly in the Moonee Valley Cup behind stablemate Grand Marshal. He is a winner at the two miles.
Why can’t he win: Been around the Melbourne Cup block a couple of times and is yet to taste success. Highly doubt it will happen here.
8. Wicklow Brave (24)
Why can he win: Beat home Order Of St George in the Irish St Leger. That horse has since gone on to run third in the Arc de Triomphe, regarded by many as the best race in the world.
Why can’t he win: Barrier 24 makes things very hard. And he too will be doing rain dances. If it does come, he is right in the ball game.
9. Almoonqith (19)
Why can he win: Really attacked the line in the Caulfield Cup behind Jameka and was strong to the line.
Why can’t he win: He was put to sleep that race, so he had every right to finish off. Form prior was ordinary. Can’t have him.
10. Gallante (2)
Why can he win: All the way winner of the Sydney Cup and the stable know how to win the great race.
Why can’t he win: Had a horror run in the Moonee Valley Cup. Will that toughen him up? Should get the run of the race from gate two.
11. Grand Marshal (9)
Why can he win: Was strong through the line in winning the Moonee Valley Cup last time out. Did win the Sydney Cup last year.
Why can’t he win: Probably lacks the class of some of these. And he needs a wet track. If he does get some cushion he is a wider first four player.
12. Jameka (3)
Why can she win: Been outstanding all Spring, culminating in a spank job of her rivals in the Caulfield Cup, the traditional lead-up to the Melbourne Cup.
Why can’t she win: Only a handful of runners have done the double. It’s very hard to do and she meets Hartnell worse off at the weights for a three-length defeat in the Turnbull.
13. Heartbreak City (23):
Why can he win: Brilliant form recently. Electric turn of foot to win his past two starts, including the famous Ebor Handicap at York where he put them away like they were camels.
Why can’t he win: Vintage Crop (1993) is the lone international to win the Cup on their Australian debut. Barrier makes it hard also.
14. Sir John Hawkwood (14)
Why can he win: Strong winner of the Metropolitan during the Randwick Carnival and the form out of that has been okay through Junoob and Grand Marshal.
Why can’t he win: Poor effort in the Caulfield Cup and he is a better horse when produced fresh. Plus I doubt him at a strong 3200m.
15. Excess Knowledge (21)
Why can he win: Quality stayer who ran a beauty in this race last year after winning the Lexus. Gai Waterhouse knows a thing or two about training horses.
Why can’t he win: Not going well enough to my eye. Moonee Valley Cup run was poor.
16. Beautiful Romance (1)
Why can she win: In a world class stable and has world class form via the Hardwicke behind Dartmouth and Highland Reel. Also gets a lovely weight drop.
Why can’t she win: Lacks a real turn of foot required to win a Melbourne Cup. Plus the fact she is an international having her first run here.
17. Almandin (17)
Why can he win: In the right stable and has been dominant in winning his past two starts by big spaces, and the form out of each race has been pretty good. Plus the jockey is one of the form riders in Australia at the moment. Also, in 2014 he beat the Cup winner that same year, Protectionist.
Why can’t he win: Little break between runs is some query and is untried beyond 2500m, which has to be a question mark against this lot.
18. Assign (22)
Why can he win: Tough on speed type who got his way into the field after winning the Herbert Power. He’ll stay all day and is in the right stable.
Why can’t he win: Probably lacks the class and ability of some of these. Plus the Herbert Power win saw him just fall in and the form hasn’t stood up.
19. Grey Lion (16)
Why can he win: French galloper who comes here off a fighting second in the Geelong Cup. Only has upside and he’ll be out of trouble on speed.
Why can’t he win: Outside the Geelong Cup, the form in France doesn’t read too flash. Can’t have him. Plus Bossy’s record recently has been shocking.
20. Oceanographer (11)
Why can he win: Explosive win in the Lexus on Saturday and is right near the top of the betting. Nine of the last ten Lexus winners have run top ten in the Cup.
Why can’t he win: Three runs in 13 days on rock hard tracks is a big ask for an import. Completely against their pattern.
21. Secret Number (10)
Why can he win: Pretty impressive first-up winner of the Lonsdale Cup at Ayr, sitting on speed and powering clear late. Stable know what it takes to win on the big stage, and have come so close in the Cup previously.
Why can’t he win: He has only had two runs in 14 months. Surely that’s not a winning Melbourne Cup prep.
22. Pentathlon (4)
Why can he win: Has performed well at the two miles in New Zealand and is trained by one of the best in John Wheeler.
Why can’t he win: Beaten by 11 lengths in the Lexus on Saturday… couldn’t possibly win.
23. Qewy (15)
Why can he win: Tough, tough, tough winner of the Geelong Cup, and that race has produced Melbourne Cup winners in recent years. Plus he has won up to 3319m, so distance is no issue.
Why can’t he win: Probably lacks the class to win, and it’s very hard to sit on speed and win a Melbourne Cup.
24. Rose Of Virginia (8)
Why can she win: … I’ll be honest, I’m struggling. Second in the Auckland Cup in the autumn. That’s it.
Why can’t she win: Beaten 15 lengths in the Lexus on Saturday and out of a total of 41 horses she has faced this spring, she has beaten home just ten. Good luck to connections.
So… who wins?
Almandin has been dominant in his past two starts, starting off with a romp in the Harry White Classic before qualifying for the Melbourne Cup after a spank job of his rivals in the Bart Cummings.
Going back to his form overseas, when he had a break between runs of around four or five weeks, he bolted up by eight lengths. Two miles is no issue, he is well weighted and gets the services of McEvoy, who is riding in super form.
I originally didn’t have Oceanographer in the mix, but how could you not ignore him after what he did in the Lexus on Saturday? He really had no right to win the race given the way the it was run and considering how far back he was, but he just flattened right out and savaged the line to win.
He’ll eat up the two miles here, so well in at the weights, and is the hard fit runner. The only negative is three runs in 13 days on hard tracks. On the flip side, the stable can do no wrong.
Heartbreak City is predominately a jumper, but one thing he does have is a lethal turn of foot. Produced that to win over the jumps at Galway before going to the famous Ebor Handicap at York where he had the charmed run behind the speed and when he was clicked up, he just exploded. He’ll stay, he handles all conditions, has a turn of foot… he ticks a lot of boxes.
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