We’re right in the thick of the Melbourne spring carnival now, and this weekend sees Moonee Valley get their time to shine with 18 races across their Friday night / Saturday double. It’s doubtful we need to go elsewhere to find some winners.
Of course, all eyes will be on Winx to see if she can make it an historic four Cox Plate wins on end. Usually, she’s not a betting proposition, but this week BetEasy is generously offering $2 on her to win again, up to a stake of $25.
We can all take advantage of this, but there is still more money to be won by identifying the right horses in the right races.
Moonee Valley – Friday 26th October
Race 7
The Manikato Stakes is the Group 1 feature on Friday night at Moonee Valley, and it has attracted a high class field of sprinters.
There is only one three year old in the field, the filly Sunlight, and she is the one to beat with a significant weight advantage over all rivals.
Sunlight is a high class filly, and has been from debut. She’s never missed a place in her 10 starts, and has won seven of those. It’s not easy for three year olds to carry maximum penalties against their own age group in the spring, yet she’s done it twice and won both times, the last time convincingly.
Trainer Tony McEvoy didn’t feel she was performing quite as he would have liked in the early spring, so he gave her a freshen and it appears to have worked. She trialled brilliantly before her last start win, and looks set for a big performance this week.
From barrier three, she will either jump to the lead or sit just behind the speed, and dropping down to 51kg’s from 58kg’s last start will feel like she has a feather on her back. Look for her to be the first to sprint for home, and we can expect her to hold on.
Bet – Sunlight win at $4.60 with BetEasy
The Manikato Stakes. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Moonee Valley – Saturday 27th October
Race 3
Savatiano looks the moral of the weekend at Moonee Valley on Saturday, and early in the day means she can be our bank builder.
The Godolphin mare worked her way through the grades nicely last season, particularly striking form in the autumn, and signed off her three year old career with a five length win over the smart Savvan. She’s followed that up by finding another level this spring.
The best mares form around this season is Invincibella and Shumookh, who have both won two races, including one each in Sydney and Melbourne. They are clearly the testing material.
Savatiano beat Shumookh first-up, a feat that has become more impressive as spring has gone on. She then endured the toughest possible run in the Tibbie Stakes at Newcastle yet still had the temerity to run second to Princess Posh.
Last start when running second at Group 2 level, she was 2.5 lengths behind Invincibella but didn’t see daylight until it was too late. She might even have won if clear earlier.
From a perfect draw in a smallish field, Savatiano will be able to box seat and should win as she likes with Kerrin McEvoy on board. Her only serious challenger is the aforementioned Princess Posh, and she gets 2.5kg’s weight advantage compared to their last meeting when with even luck she would have won anyway. It’s load up time.
Bet – Savatiano win at $2.15 with BetEasy
Racing at Moonee Valley (Sarah Ebbett/Racing Photos)
Race 5
Spin has been a good B-grade horse his entire career, but finally gets to strike the C- and D-graders on Saturday at Moonee Valley, and will certainly be making his presence felt at an each-way price.
Spin has run a lot of placings in his career, mostly at Group 2 and Group 3 level, but has only had the one win, which was in a Kembla Grange maiden back in August. His inability to get the job done is a slight concern, which makes him an each-way prospect.
Two starts back, Spin ran a close-up fourth in the Danehill. The winner Encryption has since run well again, behind Written By in the Blue Sapphire. Native Soldier came out of the Danehill to win the Guineas Prelude, so the form is solid.
Last start, Spin struck a bog track in Sydney and battled his way well into third. Back onto drier ground and in a weaker field than he is used to, he should be in the top three again.
Bet – Spin each-way at $5 / $2 with BetEasy
Winx at Moonee Valley (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Race 6
One thing that happens at this time of year is seeing horses drop back from Group 1 races into weaker events. If they have failed in those races, they often come up as over the odds at their next start and are ripe for value punters to take advantage of.
El Dorado might be one such horse, coming off an 11th in the Thousand Guineas into this filled Group 2 at set weights. She jumped $7.50 in the Thousand Guineas off the back of an eye-catching first-up run, but ran down the track and was later found to have a poor recovery rate and a throat condition. Even still, she was hardly disgraced.
Prior to this, El Dorado Dreaming’s quality had been there for all to see with a Group 1 placing in the Sires Produce followed by a Group 1 win in the Champagne Stakes in the Sydney autumn.
The oldest saying in racing is to forgive a good horse a bad run. El Dorado Dreaming is a good horse, and her last run was disappointing but with genuine excuses. If this race was a handicap she’d be carrying at least 4kg’s more than the rest of the field, but gets to meet them on equal terms here. She should prove too good.
Bet – El Dorado Dreaming win at $5 with BetEasy
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