The most exciting time for racing fans is upon us. Melbourne Cup week has finally arrived, kicked off as always by Derby Day – traditionally this has been known as punters day and what better way to look ahead and find some winners.
Race 1
The first race on Derby day is traditionally the Carbine Club Stakes, and so it is this time around as well. While it usually attracts a few colts that have run in the Caulfield Guineas three weeks earlier, for those horses this race is an afterthought, and the event often goes to a fresher horse that has come through the Gothic Stakes on Caulfield Cup day.
Ranier and Yulong January were the two most fancied runners in the Gothic and ran the quinella accordingly. There wasn’t much between them that day, with the former just nabbing the latter in the shadows of the post, but this isn’t reflected in their price for the Carbine Club.
Yulong January was pestered by a riderless horse for most of the Gothic Stakes run, which couldn’t have helped his chances, and to hold on for as long as he did made the run better than it looks on paper. He has drawn a wide gate here, but can cross and either lead or sit just outside it.
It often pays to be near the lead and closer to the rail on Derby day, and Yulong January can slot in and give a sight at a good price.
Bet: Yulong January each-way – $12 / $3.60 with BetEasy
Race 4
The Lexus Stakes is the last chance saloon for stayers looking to gain entry into the Melbourne Cup. The winner gets a ballot-free exemption, and they usually run very well when they get their chance in the big race.
This year’s edition has attracted a quality field of horses that are both fit and in-form. A number of these runners don’t have a lot between them, and have form that ties into the Herbert Power from three weeks back – that was the race in which Yucatan put in the performance of the spring (behind anything Winx has done of course) and should have won by 8-10 lengths.
Jaameh only had his first run in Australia earlier this year, but has already recorded three wins from his six starts here and is improving with each outing. He has a particular liking for the Flemington 2500m too with two wins and a second from his three starts.
Avilius is the benchmark standard for progressive stayers this season, and he beat Jaameh by a nose in the Bart Cummings. Avilius then ran fourth in the Cox Plate behind Winx, Benbatl and Humidor. It’s an irresistible form connection when assessing this race.
Watch for Jaameh to settle back in the field, saving ground on the rail from his inside draw, and then be produced in the straight. There is every chance he will prove too strong and be a player on Tuesday as well.
Bet: Jaameh win – $4.60 with BetEasy
Race 7
Thinkin’ Big has a mortgage on the VRC Derby this year, and we can bet up with confidence at whatever odds BetEasy wants to give us.
Thinkin’ Big’s win in the Caulfield Classic was completely dominant, in a way that suggested an extra 500m wasn’t going to trouble him, and that it certainly wasn’t going to enable his rivals from that race to turn the tables.
Thinkin’ Big ran the quickest sectionals home from halfway through the race in the Caulfield Classic, and the fact he ran the fastest last 200m tells us he was stronger through the line than any. There are some smart types coming from last week’s Vase at Moonee Valley, like Aramayo and Mickey Blue Eyes, and they are the two to throw in the quaddie.
Gai Waterhouse fully expects Thinkin’ Big to win the VRC Derby and then take his place in the Melbourne Cup where she anticipates a bold showing. It’s been over 20 years since a Derby winner backed up into the race that stops a nation, so that gives us an indication of where he is rated.
Bet: Thinkin’ Big win – $2.90 with BetEasy
Race 9
The Furphy Sprint is the last race of Derby day, a Group 3 over 1100m of the Flemington straight for mares only.
There are some class mares at the top of the weights and a couple of rising stars, but the race looks to have a long tail.
On ratings, Booker, Snitty Kitty, Quilista and I Am Excited have an edge of the rest of the field.
Booker is dropping back from 1400m to 1100m in only two weeks which isn’t generally a recipe for success, and has to carry a big weight. Snitty Kitty is a pure speed horse, of a type that isn’t usually suited up the Flemington straight – she strikes as a mare that loves a turn. Quilista also does her best work up on the speed and it’s tough to lead all the way in these races; there’s also a question mark on exactly how well she’s going.
Resin and From Within have been working their way through the grades in winning fashion, and certainly deserve their chance at this sort of race. Resin’s best work has been on soft tracks, which she won’t strike on Saturday, and From Within is another speed mare in a race with plenty of them.
That leaves I Am Excited as the clear horse to beat. She’s very well in under the set weights and penalties conditions of the race, and she’s been in great form all prep around horses that have been themselves winning other races. Last time out, she beat Eduardo down the straight and that horse has since won well again.
There is plenty of speed engaged in the race, which should give I Am Excited every chance to run over the top as she likes to do, and she looks the right way to finish the day.
Bet: I Am Excited win – $4.20 with BetEasy
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