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Opinion
The Mounting Yard also heads to Rosehill this week for the inaugural running of the Golden Eagle, which is worth $7,500,000.
The supporting cast is also very good with the Rosehill Gold Cup and the inaugural running of the Redzel Stakes taking place, which is worth a million dollars. The rail is true and the track will be rated as a Good 4 come race time. Here we go.
Race 1
We’ve got a benchmark 72 handicap for the three-year-olds to kick off proceedings. There looks to be a fair bit of speed on up front here which should allow for a good race.
It’s a really open race and I ended up landing on Betcha Flying. She ran the second elect to within a neck last preparation and she’s come back a better horse. She closed hard when resuming at Canterbury over 1250 metres before stepping up to the 1400 metres and giving Akari a fright at Listed Level.
She’ll appreciate a strong tempo and should be ready to peak third-up. The favourite, Faretti, has been drawn all the favours. He dominated them when resuming in a mid-week maiden at Kensington, but struggled in the Brain Crowley last start when over racing for the majority of the race.
He will get a lovely run from the good gate (4) and should go close. Grand Piano isn’t the worst. He was a dominant winner over Hulk two – back who beat the favourite home last start and he came home nicely in a Benchmark 70 last start. Will need some luck from the low draw (3).
Recommended bet: Happy enough to back #3 Betcha Flying on an each-way basis.
Race 2
A highway handicap awaits the punters here. Never overly keen to jump into these races and I’m not here either. For the sake of a tip, I’ll put Acquittal on top. He’s been incredibly unlucky in his last two starts at Goulburn and then in a highway here a fortnight ago.
He’s just never had a look at them and arguably would have run closer in each race. He’ll need luck from the wide gate (14). Zardoro was another who was unlucky in the same race but he draws a lot better today (8) and should get a lovely run.
Plonka and Coup De Main are the best of the rest in what is a typically open race.
Recommended bet: Leaving this one alone.
Race 3
A benchmark 88 handicap over 1500 metres is the next race to assess. They’ll go pretty slowly here you would imagine and that’s why I’ve got Thy Kingdom Come on top.
He just has all the favours today from the good draw (5) and he will get the run of the race for the in-form Nash Rawiller. He can mix his form a bit, this horse. He ran two lengths off the favourite here, before coming home like a bullet last start behind Greyworm in a race that was run similar to what this will be.
This time though he’ll be in front of all the other contenders and there isn’t a Greyworm in the race. He’s a good bet. Super Star Bob seems slightly overs. The second behind Cuba two starts back now seems like a good form line after he destroyed them at the Valley and he just battled along in a race where it was hard to come from behind last start.
(AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)
He’ll be closer from the low draw (1) and could feature. Mushaireb and Asterius are open to further improvement in their preparations.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #6 Thy Kingdom Come.
Race 4
I sound like a broken record but we’ve got another benchmark 88 handicap, this time over 1100 metres. I like Beau Ideal in this. He’ll probably settle back in the field a bit more today due to the tricky gate (7) but his last two runs have been good and he should be starting to get fit now fourth – up off a spell of a year.
His run behind Spanish Dream two back at this track was good when going down by 0.8 lengths and he faced a tougher race than this last start and didn’t have much luck in the run. He ran behind Signore Fox and Outrageous that day. He should get a nice sit on the leaders and hopefully be too good for them late.
Special Reward has a tricky gate (9) but if he brings his Western Australian form here he wins. He ran at listed level in Victoria and wasn’t disgraced, running 1.7 lengths off Renewal. That’s the best form line coming into this and he is right in it. Agent Pippa and Jungilized are the best of the rest.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #5 Beau Ideal.
Race 5
A fillies and mares benchmark 78 awaits the punters here over 1200 metres. Dance Hall Girl is the one to beat. She’s $3.90 and she beat the top weight with ease a few starts back and I can’t see that changing here.
She staved off the challenge of Miss Scorcher who had beat Subpoenaed the start before and legitimate queries are surrounding the second elect in the market running out 1200 metres with 61kgs on her back. She was up in grade last start in Group Company and she ran down the track which was expected.
She comes back in grade here, draws ideally (1) and looks very hard to beat. Ballistica seems overs. She ran a length off Miss Invincible a few starts back, before having no luck behind California Zimbol and then Agent Pippa last start.
They’ll run along in front and she could be the one rattling home. Lisdoonvarna is in the same boat but doesn’t have as much upside.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #5 Dance Hall Girl.
Race 6
The first of the features arrive here in the Rosehill Gold Cup over 2000 metres. It’s a wide-open edition of the Cup and I’m backing two runners.
One them is Chapada. There was a big boom on this horse after he was unlucky in the Victoria Derby, and in his next preparation, he got within 2.5 lengths of The Autumn Sun at this track and distance which seems like a good form line for this. He got outsprinted in both starts this preparation behind Admiral’s Joker but he should be ready to win third-up and rising in trip.
I’ll have something on the Lord Mayor. I backed him last start after a good run resuming in Queensland and he just was no chance after being posted three-wide. He draws a lot better today (3), rises in trip and is undefeated from three attempts when third – up. Ticks a lot of boxes.
The chances don’t end there with Tally and Morton’s Fork having legitimate claims.
Recommended bet: Backing both #6 The Lord Mayor and #7 Chapada. Playing a wide trifecta including #6, #7, #1, #13 and #15.
Race 7
The feature of the program arrives here in the Golden Eagle over 1500 metres. What a race!
This is going to be a brutally run race. At least half the field has claims but I couldn’t decide between two runners so I decided to back them both. Classique Legend goes on top. He showed his turn of foot for a part of the straight in the Premiere before peaking on his run and it is devastating.
He was clearly primed for both the Everest and this race and he just never saw daylight in the Everest and you can forget he went around. He’ll need some luck from the low draw (1) but Kerrin McEvoy is due for a good ride.
Fasika is the best value in the race. She was enormous resuming in the Sheraco when travelling three-wide. She just missed against Mizzy in that race. She then went to the Silver Eagle where she lost by a neck to the Tasmanian star The Inevitable who goes around at single figures here.
She’s been timed to the minute for this run and she will be flashing home. Kolding just keeps on winning and the form around Te Akau Shark now looks fantastic, while The Inevitable is just a winner and draws well (3) to get a cozy run.
(AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)
Recommended bet: Backing both #2 Classique Legend and #17 Fasika.
Race 8
The inaugural running of the Redzel Stakes has arrived over 1300 metres. I sided with Trekking here. He hasn’t put a foot wrong this campaign, winning the Schillaci by 0.4 lengths when on the inferior ground at Caulfield, before rattling home for third in the Everest.
He ran a similar time late to Santa Ana Lane, who I still think is the best sprinter in Australia, so that’s a good form line. He’ll be pretty much alongside the favourite in Pierata in the run but I just think he’ll be too strong for these over the last 200 metres. Pretty keen on him.
Pierata is obviously the danger. He beat Classique Legend two back who is my tip in the Golden Eagle and he just never got a run when he needed one in the Everest. He’s got a tricky draw but if he overcomes it he’s right in it.
Home of the Brave must go in exotics. He only ran 1.6 lengths off Deprive last start when they went fast in front and it doesn’t look like they’ll go that quick today. Draws ideally from the rails (1).
Recommended bet: Win bet on #2 Trekking.
Race 9
We finish the day with a Benchmark 78 over 1300 metres. Spring Charlie was disappointing on return at Port Macquarie but I am trusting him to bounce back here and we are getting a good price to find out whether he can. If he’s at his best he just wins this race.
He ran second in the Provincial championship last preparation at Randwick and he probably would have won if he got out early enough. Running three lengths off Star of the Seas also seems like a pretty good form line considering this is a weak Benchmark 78 race. He draws to do no work and with even luck, he can be winning this at double-figure odds.
Outrageous was huge when resuming. He travelled four wide and without cover for the entire race and still got to within a neck of the winner in Signore Fox. He ran 2.5 lengths off Kolding in the Queensland Guineas last preparation and a repeat of that effort would see him winning this.
Juventus and Defeat are the best of the rest.
Recommended bet: Each way play on #1 Spring Charlie.
Best bet
Race 5 #5 Dance Hall Girl.
Next-best bet
Race 8 #2 Trekking.
Best value
Race 6 #6 The Lord Mayor and Race 7 #17 Fasika.
Quaddie numbers
R6: 6, 7, 1, 13.
R7: 2, 3, 17, 4.
R8: 1, 2, 3.
R9: 1, 3, 2, 6.
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