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Opinion
Another superb Saturday of punting last weekend saw me prove that 8.3 units of profit on Day 1 of the Championships was no fluke with a juicy 10.8 unit collect, making for a total of 19.1 units.
After nailing four from four best bets over the past two weeks, I’m back again on what presents as a challenging day at the office.
Play of the day – Pippie $2 (Race 3)
3.5-unit win
In a tough day for betting with few standouts, Pippie presents as the most likely. She’s a Group 1 winner at this track first up this preparation in the Oakleigh Plate, which saw her roll forward and dictate out in front.
With the pattern of the day in her favour, Caulfield has continually offered a leader bias in recent times and I don’t expect this to change here with the rail out three metres with rain forecast.
She’s yet to be unplaced in the wet and presents here third up, right back in class and even at the weights off the back of a fourth to Loving Gaby in the William Reid, which saw her see no favours in the run. A wide barrier is the only knock but she’s quick into stride and with a high cruising speed I expect her to have plenty in hand turning for home.
Best each way – Eduardo $6.50/2.40 (Race 7)
0.5-unit win by 1 units place
The lightly raced and ever consistent six-year-old presents as a great each-way play in a race lacking the quality he has previously faced. He is yet to be unplaced first up at Caulfield and over the 1100 metres. This horse is proven in wet ground and drops right back in class at a track that has been a front-runner’s delight in recent months.
The only knock is the wide draw but with no clear speed to his inside I expect the likely leader From Within (drawn to his outside) to give him the cart into the box seat. If he runs up to his peak, which boasts a Group 1 third at this trip and narrow defeats to Group 1 winners Nature Strip, Miss Leonidas and I Am Excited, I expect him to prove hardest to beat.
Best of the rest – Shared Ambition $3 (Race 6)
2.5-unit win
Drops right back in class after a lacklustre showing in the Group 1 Doncaster. Will benefit getting back out to a more suitable trip (2000 metres) and James McDonald stepping back into the saddle. Only knock is the wide draw, but I expect McDonald to roll back and if he can land cover in the run, watch him cruise up into the race at the 400 metres and prove extremely hard to hold out.
The race lacks a great deal of speed on paper, so McDonald does have the option to take a more forward position if he wishes. There are question marks over what tactics will be taken but regardless he’s got lengths on these and the country’s best jockey to steer.
Next best – Ocean’s Fifteen TT+ (Race 10)
3.5-unit win
Knocking on the door for a win this preparation off the back of two narrow seconds over 1200 metres. Presents here third up back in class after sitting wide for the majority of the trip before being gunned down by Cryptic Love in the final 100 metres as the well supported favourite ($2.30).
Cryptic Love has since run second to the promising Celebrity Queen. I expect him to appreciate rising to 1400 metres, and with a more economical run, watch him put these away. Only bad luck beats him.
Back me – Sugar Boom $2.70 (Race 7)
3-unit win
Presents here forward enough to be winning off the back of two trial victories, which saw him cruise to the line under his own steam. His most recent trial saw him put four lengths on subsequent race-day winner Niedorp. This horse also beat The Move, who presents as the main danger. Although giving The Move 4.5 kilograms and race fitness, he’s proven first up and his superb gate speed should see him roll across from the outer barrier with little concern.
Save on – The Move $3
1.5-unit win
The clear-cut danger looks suited here third up, dropping back to 1100 metres after being gunned down by the narrowest of margins last start over 1200 metres, and maps to box seat in behind the speed of Sugar Boom and No Better Moment. Although Sugar Boom is the clear-cut class runner, I can see a situation where the rough chance No Better Moment softens him up out in front and The Move prevails over the top with race fitness and a significant weight relief to his advantage. I’m also happy to take the quinella, which should pay between $4.20 and $5 in what maps to be a two-horse race.
Multi of the day – $3.80 (two units)
Race 3 Randwick – Rubiaski (win)
Race 4 Randwick – Quick Thinker (place)
Race 4 Caulfield – Mr Quickie (win)
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