We definitely tread towards winter racing with this week’s Randwick meeting.
There’s apprentices taking weight off some good chances, top jocks away in Brisbane and a lot of midweek form. The track should be around a soft six. I’ve done my numbers that way.
I’ve done some Eagle Farm form too. There is some quality there in the Kingsford Smith and a cracking three-year-old race where one of my recent winners can do the business again.
Dixie’s 2021 tally
Outlay: 216 units
Return: 340.6 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 3 – 13 Akatino (one unit)
I have the OTI horses sorting this out. The blowout for mine is Akatino down there on the minimum. Jay Ford and 52 kilos, yes please. He’s now had three goes since coming over from Germany. He carried 61 and ran okay in lower grade in a couple of them before getting an ugly run on a heavy track last time.
Sound of Cannons seems to have got his manners after developing a habit for poor starts, his last start was good at this trip and he drops to a nice weight after lugging over 60 kilos in his three starts this preparation. Avion Fury and Brown Thomas are next.
Race 4 – 11 Bright Rubick (one unit)
Bright Rubick has generally run at the big end of two-year-old and three-year-old races. She’s been beautifully placed here coming into a grade race with no weight on her back. More Prophets is the danger. She comes out of the same race and was unlucky there, but a nine-kilo swing means I’ll place my hard earned on the Rubick.
Race 5 – 2 Stolz (one unit)
Stolz has been in and around it this prep. He’s well positioned here with Louise Day’s two-kilo weight claim. La Foret is a nice type who should be better with a run under his belt to start his prep. Lennon rates okay and Nags to Riches is the horse going places having only had four starts.
Race 6 – 6 Wandabaa (two units)
Louise Day back-to-back? Wandabaa is in here perfectly at 1100 metres, three from six at the trip, three from seven on soft going and has won at HQ. While Wandabaa steps back from group level, Marway steps up after smashing them at Wagga and in midweeks. Adelong will roll along with Marway up front, which again just sets up beautifully.
Race 7 – 2 Canasta (one unit)
This is not a race I’ll be going too hard on. Canasta is worth a play fresh in this class. Running at 1300 metres tells me he’s done some work into this. Knight and St Covet’s Spirit (non-winner) rate okay. I’m happy to risk April Rain at the odds but she is going places.
Race 8 – 13 Lina’s Hero (one unit)
There was a bit of tossing and turning between two Waller runners (Ford versus Day too – torn). I am leaning towards Lina’s Hero with a bit more upside still blowing out some cobwebs since arriving from Hong Kong. True Detective was the other one in my crosshairs. He’s generally around the mark at Saturday level and is a nice horse.
Race 9 – 15 Just Field (one unit)
The lottery is last this week. I’ve gone wide and found Just Field. She’s been hopeless early in her last couple, but if she can finish off like she did at Hawkesbury in listed class, she’s right in this at any old price. In saying that, it’s a wide quaddie leg, Hulk and Belucci Babe are right in it. Jay Ford finishing a big day with Prarie Fire at 50/1-plus isn’t the worst either.
Race 2 – 12 Westlink (one unit)
I am going to stick with Westlink. His run at the Gold Coast was great and he was okay at Doomben a fortnight ago. The hard track is a tick. He won’t win without me.
Race 3 – 7 Exoboom (two units)
Exoboom was just amazing at Hawkesbury two starts back. At his best he dominates this. I’m keen to see Ayrton. This horse has some big wraps on him after some big Melbourne runs.
Race 9 – 3 Socialising (one unit)
I’ll take the local at big odds to bring the day home at Eagle Farm. Sweet Deal might prefer 1300 metres, Exhilirates has travelled up after a tilt in Adelaide, and Socialising is primed for a big one on her home track. The 1200 is her trip, she’s seven from 15 on hard surfaces, it’s her time and at any old price.
So there it is, what a day. I’ll be up at Eagle Farm. Please hit me up with your thoughts on the big day. Kingsford Smith? It looks a good race. I am leaning to Savatiano.