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Opinion
We head west to Rosehill this Saturday for another cash-packed ten-race program, featuring a quality mares race, a good country-distance clash and a $1 million sprint for the early maturing juveniles.
With a bit of rain late in the week we’re confronted by a soft surface. With a lot of traffic at Randwick lately the track should be fresh, which may lead to on-pacers being favoured if anything.
I hope your Cup week has been good. Verry Elleegant, that was something. I had the favourite, brave but beaten fair and square.
The Derby winner was a wow, and Fangirl, what a belting. While my focus is local, if you get to the bottom there’s a couple of sneaky units to tipple across the border.
The tally is looking a bit worse for wear. This is the card to get back on track.
Dixie’s 2021-22 season tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 165 units
Return: 130.8 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 7 Arabolini (one unit)
Current odds: $8.50
I am happy taking 7. Arabolini in the opener. He’s been around the mark in the midweeks and should bowl along in the first pair. He has been well treated by the handicap and should give a nice kick carrying 52 kilos plus whatever the apprentice has left over to claim. At the other end of the weights, money has come for the toppy 1. Herman Hasse. I’m risking up in weight and considering the soft track (zero from six).
Race 2 – 12 Schiller’s Myst (one unit)
Current odds: $5.50
It is a tough little highway over 1500. The one with upside is 12. Schiller’s Myst. She comes here for start number five and was impressive from midfield winning at Scone last time. 11. Andorra La Vella gets significant weight relief from a Class 1 win and will lead. 7. So Say You is generally good at this level but maybe likes hard going.
(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)
Race 3 – 3 Jazzland (one unit)
Current odds: $3.70
3. Jazzland could be my cousin, his mum’s name is Dix! He hasn’t won in a while (also like me!) but gets his race here third-up and in good form. The soft track is fine. 9. Viren comes into this second-up after a good run fresh at Gosford over a mile, and is well placed carrying 53 kilos. 6. Another One is the other main danger in my numbers.
Race 4 – 4 Seleque (two units)
Current odds: $3.00
The scratching of her stablemate gives a clear ratings edge to 4. Seleque. She goes well fresh, trialled well and was right in the market all the way through her mid-year three-year-old campaign. 8. Parachuter seems to always start around $6 and has placed at her last three. 9. Designer Maid is the blowout. She’s the likely leader with no weight on her back.
Race 5 – 6 Invincible Dash (two units)
Current odds: $29
I almost fell of my chair when I looked at the price after doing the numbers in the country race here. 6. Invincible Dash flat out bolted in last time at Goulburn. It looks like 2000 metres will suit and might go on with it. The biggest risk? Frankly, he might not start considering as of Friday lunch time there’s still no jockey booked. Pick up the phone Mr Olive!
Alas, if the dash doesn’t run I’ll have a small nibble (one unit) on 3. Kitzbuhel. He won well leading from the inside gate in a Highway last time and has a good record at the distance. He’s gone from the penthouse to the outhouse though. Tim Clark will earn his check from barrier 21 near the tram shed.
(Image by Digwen from Pixabay)
Race 6 – 6 Budhwar (one unit)
Current price: $8.00
Timmy Clark hops on another leader in the midway, tipping the ledger towards 6. Budhwar at a nice price. He’s running well and is favoured by the track and gate. The favourite 4. Pandora Blue is drawn directly outside our boy and is the other leader. I hope we hold him out and kick.
Race 7 – no bet
A rant to summarise this one – how is the brilliant, time-honoured Epsom Handicap worth $1.5 million, and a race potentially conceived on the back of a handkerchief for babies who’ve just got out of training wheels running for a cool mil? A few of these are expensive (particularly 2. Nobel), but not for me thanks.
Race 8 – 1 Rocha Clock (one unit)
Current odds: $4.00
There is good quality racing for the mares here (breathing again). I am happy to have 1. Rocha Clock. She was great in the Invitational and Icebath has since franked that form at Flemington. 3. Nudge and 4. Madam Rouge are next best.
(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)
Race 9 – 9 Calgary Queen (one unit)
Current odds: $6
I’m a fan of 9. Calgary Queen. Forgive her failure last time and she’s been very good this prep. She’s right in this. She returns to 1200 metres here (three from three) and should be in the mix from the favourable draw. Early money has rightly come for 8. Fox Fighter. 5. Kinloch is the other worry. At his form last preparation he runs well at this lot, particularly with give in the track.
Race 10 – 13 Diva Bella (one unit)
Current odds: $19
If there’s still some light with the late finish, I’ll be backing 13. Diva Bella to make it two in a row. She was strong late to win well at Hawkesbury and that was heavy, so softish should be okay. 7. Blesk is suited by the conditions, while 1. Zoushack won for us last time we had him and is racing well.
Melbourne racing selections
Race 1 – 9 Equation (one unit) $4.50
Race 3 – 17 Royal Order (one unit) $26
Race 5 – 4 Prince of Jenni (one unit) $13
Race 6 – 9 Colette (one unit) $5
Race 9 – 14 Duchess of Dorset (three units) $3.20
Yep, a special in the last of the carnival. Good luck punters, enjoy the end of Cup week and good luck across the cards.
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