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Opinion
It is off to Newcastle for the Hunter-led standalone meeting this weekend.
It is always a good track to race and punt on. There’s a couple of plays I’m pretty keen on, with James McDonald likely to keep dominating.
I am sticking with Team O’Shea while the iron is hot, while also watching apprentice Dylan Gibbons closely. He’s been nicely booked on a couple of chances here and will provide weight relief.
Best bet: Race 10 – 6 Gravina (four units)
Current odds: $2.60
He’s been a bookies favourite this prep running on when there’s too much to do. With McDonald on board and the nice expansive Newcastle straight, he’s set to finally bring home the bacon (and the squaddie).
Next best: Race 8 – 1 Lost and Running (two units)
Current odds: $3.00
Lost and Running has been running with the big boys, two lengths off Nature Strip in the Everest is good for this. I need to trust that Hugh Bowman can sort something from the bad draw, but potentially somewhere in the running line won’t be the worst place to be.
Race 2 – 4 Zegalo (one unit)
Current price: $7.50
Ma and Pa looks a bit skinny at even money. Zegalo won nicely fresh at 1400 last prep and was put away. He’s had a very quiet trial this time leading into this kick-off over a mile, he should be close enough in the run if fit to challenge the fave when it matters.
Race 3 – 2 Ceasefire (one unit)
Current price: $5.50
Ceasefire is solid in this sort of grade and shapes to get a good run from the gate and with Gibbons’ claim. This horse should run well.
(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)
Race 4 – 4 Tampering (two units)
Current price: $6.00
Tampering was the best of them coming out of the Four Pillars. That was a Midway on steroids (750k) and he’s drawn beautifully for Bowman. Money’s come for Harvey’s Way. He seems talented but is too short for me up in grade.
Race 5 – 3 Mightybeel (one unit)
Current odds: $3.40
This is a pretty even race. Mightybeel is the one going places. This horse got done behind his running mate Lord Ardmore last time, with McDonald on now I can’t see that happening again. Love Tap is a good’un but lugs the grandstand after a good run in the Golden Eagle.
Race 6 – 6 Torrens (one unit)
Current odds: $8.00
Torrens can be a slippery one to catch. He’s nicely placed in this at rock bottom weight and might be able to win if he performs like he did winning at odds last time. Shared Ambition looks a solid favourite with Gibbons’ claim and the Think It Over form line.
(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)
Race 7 – 3 Holstein (one unit)
Current odds: $13
I am happy to take Holstein at odds. His Randwick midweek win rated well and he’s a likely improver. He looks a fighter.
Race 9 – 6 Miss Einstein (one unit)
Current odds: $11
Miss Einstein is one of mine. She generally favours the wet and this is a nice set-up for her against the girls at 1400 fresh. Gibbons for the win!
The challenge – back to square by Christmas (best get a move on!).
The tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 183 units
Return: 130.8 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes.
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