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Opinion
It was back to winning ways last week and there are big plans to keep it going as the Peter V’landys millions heads down to Kembla Grange for the Gong meeting this Saturday.
Some of these races are pretty deep so I have gone value hunting. A few shorties look rock solid as well. With wet weather maybe or maybe not coming, good luck!
One thing to remember throughout the day – beware the sneaky placement of local trainers. It’s their grand final and runners will improve at home.
Brock Ryan is also a big one. He does a lot of work here so should be in line to ride the best of them.
The challenge – back to square by Christmas (best get a move on!).
The tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 195 units
Return: 149.10 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes.
Race 1 – 1 Shibli (one unit)
Current odds: $4.40
It is a tight little opener over a distance. I have 1. Shibli as a bet at over $4. He’s up in weight but has been running well and hard in the market this prep. 6. Suppression is too short for me but should run well for James McDonald/Chris Waller stepping back in trip, while at odds 8. Avion Fury and 3. New King were value.
Race 2 – 4 Sizzling Cat (two units)
Current odds: $4.00
4. Sizzling Cat can turn the tables on 2. So Say You, who pipped him a fortnight ago. The extra 100 metres and the likely running position both favour the Cat. 5. Lord Desanimaux next best.
(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)
Race 3 – 2 Remlaps Gem (two units)
Current odds: $5
I sliced this race up a few ways and kept coming back to 2. Remlaps Gem. He bolted in lugging the grandstand at Muswellbrook fresh, he’s run time last prep at Grafton and is in well compared to his trip to town in July, where he went too hard. The watch is 8. Dragonstone. He looked sharp in his juvenile campaign and has trialled well. I am on the watch and learn side of things at the short price.
Race 4 – 9 Adelaide’s Light (one unit)
Current odds: $10
A few scratchings have made this tricky. 9. Adelaide’s Light is a likely improver. He advanced well through the grades last prep and comes into this fitter and down in weight. 13. Akeed is another at odds that could bob up. 1. Canasta is the class horse.
Race 5 – 12 On the Take (one unit)
Current odds: $35
This is a funny little race with a few similar ratings. The outlier is 12. On the Take. She was good fresh at Wagga in a good race and carried big weights last prep. She’ll be fitter here and is worth a sneaky. 7. Exotic Ruby is the other one dropping in weight, otherwise the usual suspects are 3. Selburose and 9. Seleque.
(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)
Race 6 – 2 Travest (one unit)
Current odds: $6.00
2. Travest looks the best horse in the Midway. He missed the kick first-up and was excellent, he’s better than this level and at full fitness goes close. 3. Bluff’n’Bluster can be competitive coming out of the Goulburn Cup. 1. Easy Campese is the other main threat.
Race 7 – 12 Wisdom of Water (one unit)
Current odds: $35
I like 12. Wisdom of Water back to the 1000 metres. He was excellent fresh at the trip at equal weights with The Inferno, only getting done by three lengths. At the minimum weight of 52 kilos, he can sit just off a hot speed and show his best. 10. Mossman Gorge is $17 currently and also looks over the odds. 3. Malkovich is a good horse but finds challengers for the lead in this and will need to be at his best. 1. Eleven Eleven is class. Good race.
Race 8 – 4 Count De Rupee (two units)
Current odds: $3.90
4. Count De Rupee heads home for the Gong. His Golden Eagle miss to I’m Thunderstruck has him a clear top-rater in this. The gate isn’t good but Kembla has a nice long section to get through before the turn. Challengers. 10. Rich Hips won well during Cup week and can compete with the boys here. 15. Exoboom ran time at Randwick two starts back while 16. Yamazaki is going well too.
Race 9 – 14 Bergen (one unit)
Current odds: $61
Things are getting interesting. 14. Bergen is top-rater at any old price for the flying Gary Moore yard. He’s been thereabouts at big prices recently, gets a massive weight pull on Zoushack ($9) in this and has been just off Exoboom (racing in the big one) and Quantico (winner in Melbourne during Cup week) this prep. At the price I’m happy to have a ticket. 17. Kingsheir goes from Hawkes to Waller – an ominous move, I’m wary. 5. Wheelhouse is next in line.
Race 10 – 9 Monegal (one unit)
Current odds: $13
Brock Ryan will end a big day well with local 9. Monegal. Theresa Bateup prepared this girl first-up to win the same race last year. She’s been slightly off her best, but six weeks into this she’ll be primed and at her best, she’s right up to these. It is a funny speed map. 1. Oxford Tycoon may get a good time of it in front and give a sight, otherwise 7. Blesk was my main worry. 8. Dynamic Impact is a nice horse but needs to put another one together up in weight before I get on board.
Big day, enjoy and please keep me posted on how you travel.
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