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Opinion
Off to the wild, windy and wet West at Rosehill this week for an unseasonal heavy track. Just another variable to consider, I’d be looking to favour horses on speed, particularly early in the program.
Fingers crossed we go ahead, I’ve found a few that should handle the conditions at a nice price.
Sydney racing selections
Race 2 – 14 Limited Reality (one unit)
Current odds: $11
14. Limited Reality comes to town undefeated from two country runs and has trialled well. He ticks the wet form box as well, winning on a heavy 10 at Dubbo, although that was a small field and he wasn’t as convincing as on debut.
Will go forward from a good draw, another tick. 18. Extravagant Lad is one to watch also coming off a win in the slop.
Race 3 – 4 Rebel Rama (one unit)
Current odds: $3.40
Form from the Four Pillars her four weeks ago should stand up in the Midway, 4. Rebel Rama was ok there, prior to that she was good winning in the wet.
She does get back but with Berry on may work out ok. 1. Jazzland is a good horse but is carrying weight, and I’m always wary of Theresa Bateup runners, 13. Foxtrot Bravo is right down in weight for this.
Race 4 – 1 Polly Grey (one unit)
Current odds: $7
Three-from-six on heavy ground is the kicker for 1. Polly Grey, when combined with ticks for McDonald/Waller she rated on top. A nice small field so shouldn’t be too far off them. 5. Mightybeel is an unknown on the surface, the soldier horses look competitive and if 7. Grove Ferry keeps improving he could challenge.
Race 5 – 6 Prince Invincible (one unit)
Current odds: $10
Scratchings have taken a fair amount of speed out of this and 6. Prince Invincible should have his own way fresh. He’s untried on heavy but won his maiden on a slow 7 which provides some confidence he’ll get through it. Has trialled well.
2. Undeniable probably shapes as the main worry and should get a nice run from the draw.
Race 6 – 7 Born a King (one unit)
Current odds: $4.20
7. Born a King seems in a hurry to make an impression since coming to Oz, he’s has two good runs including a win last time, and now starts stepping into his premium distance range. In a race where a lot of them rated evenly, he’s the one going places. Hopefully he can get through the mud.
9. Media Starguest is the swimmer in the pack, the rain brings him into calculations. 1. Cisco Bay the class.
Race 7 – 2 Tambo’s Mate (two units)
Current odds: $3.40
The weather God’s have only helped 2. Tambo’s Mate, who arrives from Brisbane on the back of two city sprint wins and will eat up the ground.
James McDonald shapes as a key booking, he’s taken the ride on Tambo over 7. Written Beauty for Team Waller. 3. Edison is a big threat, 1. Southern Lad is flying, and I could even spec on 4. Surreal Step at any old price.
Race 8 – 6 Prime Candidate (one unit)
Current odds: $31
What of 10. Ellsberg in the wet? His form around I’m Thunderstruck is top notch, but he’s none-from-three in soft/heavy so I’m not jumping in at around 2/1. At the other end of the market, 6. Prime Candidate has been pretty good this prep around the likes of Big Parade and Quantico, last time in The Hunter he had a fight for the front, with less pressure here he’s over the odds.
I’ve received a big tip for 2. Bandersnatch ($9.50) who’ll sit just behind them and is a known quantity as a wet track performer. 3. Order Again must go in with mud form and McDonald/Waller combining, I respect 7. Countofmontecristo at big odds as well.
Race 9 – 9 Budhwar (two units)
Current odds: $12
Another go-forward horse at the top here with 9. Budhwar, he’s been all around it this time in and gets his chance to break through. Down in weight, has slow track form and placed twice in three goes on heavy so should be ok. 4. Brookspire is the danger, was great fresh last preparation. 2. Expat will love the give out of the track and is a winner.
Race 10 – 11 Artero (one unit)
Current odds: $19
Another tricky race to end the day, the lightly raced 11. Artero goes on top after an impressive win in lower grade at Wyong, he ran of the top of them there and looks a prospect. His debut win at Scone was a ripper too. 4. Bergen backs up after doing my cash last week, 9. Francesco Guardi keeps improving.
The challenge – back to square by Christmas (time to get busy!).
The tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 206 units
Return: 157.90 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes.
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