It’s off to Rosehill this Saturday for a wet-and-Waller day, with the rain late this week putting us on a heavy track for a meeting where one in three horses come from the country’s leading stable (although on a down run recently).
The card looks to have good depth, so even with the obvious scratchings, I’m hoping a few runners tried in the conditions can get the job done.
Outlay: 11 units
Return: 15.1 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, best tote or starting price. See the comments for any changes.
Race 1 – 4 Steplee (one unit)
Current odds: $2.60
Not going to make any new friends here, but the favourite 4. Steplee looks a big shot in the Highway. He’s two from three and on the way up, most importantly the biggest of his two wins came when he bolted in on a heavy surface at Scone. J-Mac on is another plus.
Race 2 – 2 Caesars Palace (one unit)
Current odds: $6.50
I do have a soft spot for 2. Caesars Palace. Maybe it has something to do with having four aces in a poker tournament in Vegas about 15 years ago, but I digress. He’s racing consistently, looks to control the pace here from in front and will have every chance. 7. Fiordland is the danger to my eye, on-the-up after a good win on a heavy track last start.
Race 3 – 9 And We Danced (one unit)
Current odds: $4.50
This race became very even with the scratchings, leaning to 9. And We Danced coming over from NZ after starting at 20/1 in a Group 1 over there. Joins Team Waller and had a good trial behind King of Sparta, who will win a Magic Millions race next week on the GC. 3. Saigon is the obvious threat, it’s a year since her last win so she’s skinny at 6/4 or so, looking around her.
Race 4 – 11 Hasty Duchess (one unit)
Current odds: $12
A tricky little race to work through, I landed on 11. Hasty Duchess at each-way odds, she won well on a bog at Wyong first-up before stepping up a bit too steeply in grade. A Midway looks like her sort of level and the track can only help. 7. Savvy Crown is a horse I like and at 20/1 could be tempted, but from the wide draw I’ll wait until things are in his favour.
Race 5 – 6 Wairere Falls (one unit)
Current odds: $5
This looks a very winnable race for 6. Wairere Falls first-up, he’s had an easy trial and I like the 1400 starter for this prep as opposed to a sharper trip. Has drawn well and may still be on the improve. 4. Lackeen is all around it right now and is close to a win.
Race 6 – 8 Miss Baltimore (one unit)
Current odds: $13
The rainmakers ate up the $23 about 8. Miss Baltimore in opening markets, with the track downgraded she’s now half that. She won strongly twice last prep on heavy going, Joe Pride then moved her up to this sort of grade and she’s been around the mark in less favourable conditions. Sam Clipperton is a gun, it could be a tricky draw but I hope she’s either outside the leader or one pair back.
Race 7 – 1 Southern Lights (one unit)
Current odds: $11
Found this race very tricky to break down, with all sorts of references and limited wet form. So class it is, and 1. Southern Lights has a pretty clear edge in the department, running in stakes class in the UK and Ireland last year before heading this way. He’ll be better over longer, but I’m happy to gamble at double figure-odds that he can beat this lot. 4. Brown Thomas is a similar story distance-wise, at around 50/1 he goes well on heavy tracks, although is a level below the toppy.
Race 8 – 4 Order Again (two units)
Current odds: $3.40
The scratchings of a couple of his key rivals really opens this up for 4. Order Again, he should peak now fourth-up, this is his sort of class and he’s proven in the going. The horse on the rise is 14. Pecuniary Interest, he rises sharply in grade but is helped by the scratchings and should handle the wet.
Race 9 – 5 Rousseau (one unit)
Current odds: $11
I’ve priced 5. Rousseau at about half of his current 10/1 quote, his two Sydney runs have been good, last start he was asked to do plenty and did well to stick with them. Has drawn well here and Chad Schofield (welcome back from Honkers!) can get him in the right spot to challenge. The obvious threat is 6. Niffler, he looks promising. Interestingly my boy meets him a kilo better than last time today. 2. Zegalo is in from but too short for me.
Race 10 – 11 Ranges (one unit)
Current odds: $8.50
11. Ranges has been great this prep, he was up near the lead last time and didn’t shirk, I think he gets in well with 55 kilos and is up to this grade. He’s my preferred way over the very skinny 5. Tycoonist, who won well last start but I’m happy to risk up in weight and in the conditions, considering his quote.
Good luck all, feel free to shoot through any tips or questions, stay safe and go wide in the quaddie.