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Opinion
While Group 1 racing officially resumed last week with Tofane winning the Orr Stakes, things are really set to heat up this Saturday with the Lightning Stakes.
It’s the best Lightning Stakes field that most can recall, and all throughout racing history the best sprinters Australia has had to offer have won this race.
Black Caviar, Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Scenic Blast, Apache Cat, Miss Andretti, Takeover Target, Fastnet Rock, Choisir, Testa Rossa, Mahogany and Schillaci have all won it in the last 30 years.
It truly is the who’s who of our country’s sprinting superstars.
The two most recent winners, Nature Strip and Gytrash, are also suiting up, with a host of worthy challengers looking to take them down and land the title.
It’s been 15 months since a horse other than Eduardo beat Nature Strip, but that horse did claim him twice in 2021, and Gytrash took his scalp a couple of times in 2020 as well, including in the Lightning.
But Nature Strip is a much more rounded sprinter these days, far more consistent than he used to be, and is the reigning Everest, VRC Classic, TJ Smith and Lightning champion. They are the four premier sprints we have.
If every single competitor is at their best, Nature Strip is still the most likely winner if he is at his.
Eduardo is the most likely horse to topple him, if there is to be one. He had a 2-2 record against the champ last year, with his wins being over 1000m and 1100m, while Nature Strips were at 1200m.
Does the 1000m Lightning help Eduardo, when he doesn’t have to extend his power for that extra 200m against him?
They have developed a fascinating rivalry, and an extra dimension is added due to the fact Eduardo hasn’t seen the straight since Joe Pride took over his care.
The fact also remains that both of Eduardo’s Group 1 wins have come when Nature Strip wasn’t there.
While the above two were first and third in the Everest last year, Masked Crusader split them with a fast finishing second to go down by the barest margin.
He’s never raced at Flemington, and thus hasn’t been tested on raceday down the straight, the fact he’s won at Caulfield and Moonee Valley as well as Randwick suggests he’s an adaptable horse that should have no problem. His finishing burst and straight line speed should also be a benefit.
The question on Masked Crusader will be if 1000m is too short at this level. He can certainly win.
Gytrash wasn’t at his best over the last 12 months, but tends to fire first-up regardless. Last campaign he was an unlucky third behind Eduardo and Nature Strip, and several good judges thought he might have won that race if he wasn’t disappointed for a run.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images for the Australian Turf Club)
You’d be taking him on trust if you were to back him, but he’ll have his admirers.
Two three-year-olds contesting the Lightning are just what the doctor ordered. We love seeing the youngsters taking on the older horses at WFA in the autumn carnival.
Home Affairs was found wanting in the Everest last year, but went to a new level two weeks later in the Coolmore with a three-length explosion down the straight. It was on the podium for the win of the Flemington carnival, against some ripping opposition for that title.
A high earning career at stud is guaranteed for Home Affairs, but he can add more value to it by beating this field, so he’ll be cherry ripe for the opportunity. A trip to Royal Ascot is also on the cards, to become a dual hemisphere winning stallion. He’s no passenger.
Profiteer is a speed machine that hasn’t always been easy to handle for Mick Price, but also claimed an impressive win down the Flemington straight in Cup week.
He’s even more of a wild card than Home Affairs, but is being tipped into the deep end with some confidence, and was the subject of significant early backing on Wednesday.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
The three sprinters least likely to claim victory are The Inferno, The Astrologist and Swats That, but all deserve their spot.
More was expected of The Inferno in the Everest after a couple of impressive performances in the spring, but he just never came on from the tail in that race. There will be no less pressure here, but there is still something about him. He’s still a big watch.
The Astrologist is the out-and-out straight track specialist of the field, always racing in lower grade, but never missing a place in his last eight goes at Flemington. He’s out-graded at WFA, but will be tough and honest while giving the others a race.
Swats That is a bloody good mare who had a horror run in the spring. The only time things panned out for her in four runs, she ran second to Nature Strip in the VRC Classic. This is a tougher field, obviously, but she’s run three Group 1 placings for a reason, including third in this last year.
The countdown until 4:25pm on Saturday is on, and then the fireworks will be on. It will be a pure racing spectacle, and surely a race we’ll be talking about for years to come.
Selections: 1.Nature Strip 2.Eduardo 3.Masked Crusader 4.Gytrash.