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Opinion
After the wettest Sydney autumn carnival in living memory the last Group 1 race day in New South Wales for the 2021-22 season is upon us. If nothing else, this carnival will be remembered for the ‘ride of the century’ by Nash Rawiller on Think It Over in the Queen Elizabeth.
A cracker of a field has been assembled here. Shelby Sixtysix won a Group 1 four weeks ago and can’t make the field. Overpass is also an emergency, having won the Expressway in January, beating Forbidden Love and Anamoe!
The betting reflects how even and quality this race is, with $5 the field on offer and only a few horses longer than 20-1.
Mo’unga, Forbidden Love and In the Congo head up the betting, and it will be a wonderful battle for favouritism on the day.
Mo’unga is the unquestioned class and does nothing but race well every time he steps onto a race track, but he hasn’t been seen for seven weeks after running second in the Futurity. Sierra Sue beat him that day but is three times the price and has a liking for wet tracks.
Forbidden Love was cutting a swathe through the Sydney wet with three wins on the trot before a brave fourth in the Doncaster. The drop back to 1400 metres from the mile is in her favour.
Ellsberg and Laws of Indices were behind Forbidden Love in the Donnie, but you can make a case for each at odds if they’re able to have everything go right.
In the Congo, along with the first two emergencies Overpass and Shelby Sixtysix, has come through sprinting trips to tackle the 1400 metres. They all met in the Doncaster, and there was nothing between them. The two three-year-olds are more advantaged at the weights against the older Shelby.
Tofane is having her last run, fittingly at 1400 metres. Her record at the trip contesting Group 1 races is four wins and two placings from six starts, including being victorious in this race two years ago. Her only run on a heavy was an excellent fifth in the TJ Smith behind Nature Strip before that win.
Selections: 1. Mo’unga, 2. In the Congo, 3. Forbidden Love, 4. Tofane.
(Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
The Champagne Stakes has attracted only a six-horse field, but we are on the verge of seeing another two-year-old triple crown, which is roughly a once-a-decade event.
You can get $1.50 if you want to back Fireburn to keep her winning ways going, and after five in a row going back to December you’d be brave to take her on. The Golden Slipper and Sires winner doesn’t appear to have any chinks in her armour.
She’s Extreme has seen Fireburn’s rump three times already this prep, including two seconds. She’s credentialled to finish there again.
Victorians Let’srollthedice and Counttheheadlights were both good behind those two fillies in the Sires and give every impression that 1600 metres will be up their alley, so they might be a fluker’s hope of an upset if the favourite doesn’t run the trip.
Williamsburg was strong on the bottomless track last week, easily winning the Fernhill. He backs up having had that grounding at a mile, and if he handles it, he is sure to run well.
Selections: 1. Fireburn, 2. Let’srollthedice, 3. Counttheheadlights, 4. She’s Extreme.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
The Country Discovery is a new race on the Victorian calendar, to be raced at Sale on Good Friday. A great initiative, it has drawn a high-class field that wouldn’t be out of place as a Group 2 or even a weak Group 1.
Similar to the All Aged, there are three horses around the $5 mark vying for favouritism.
Lombardo strung the wins together in the spring before being tested at Group 1 level in the Manikato, where he ran a respectable fifth behind Jonker and Bella Nipotina. He resumed with an easy win in Adelaide and has drawn beautifully to race just behind the speed.
Showmanship has tasted defeat onlyonce in his career and won six in a row the last time we saw him, 18 months ago. This is a hot field to be resuming in though, which will make it tough.
In The Boat has been rising through the grades and is looking for a sterner test now. He hasn’t always won by big margins but has a knack for doing enough.
The class is represented via Savatoxl, The Inferno and Brooklyn Hustle.
Savatoxl is first-up here, a circumstance that saw him win the Schillaci at WFA in the spring, with Bella Nipotina a close third. Even though she’s not here, that mare ties some of these together.
The Inferno started $21 in the Everest last year and was ultimately beaten by six lengths. It’s not a bad recommendation for a race at Sale! He’ll have to carry 60.5 kilos and has had a few things against him in his Australian career, but if he’s right to go, then he’s probably the one they have to beat.
Brooklyn Hustle is coming off a great sixth in the Galaxy, where she carried weight against some good horses. Some of her opposition are running in the All Aged Stakes on Saturday, mentioned above as fancies, and she’s good enough to win.
The chances don’t end there either. Halvorsen is coming off a second at Group 1 level, Express Pass was right next to Brooklyn Hustle two starts back, Dirty Thoughts’ best form is around a turn, so she’s huge odds if you forgive her Flemington flops, and don’t sleep on Chassis either – go back six months and she’s run second to Probabeel and Bella Nipotina and was good first-up at Mornington.
Selections: 1. Brooklyn Hustle, 2. Lombardo, 3. The Inferno, 4. Chassis.