Opinion
The Caulfield Cup on the same day as The Everest is a wonderful thing for racing fans, as they get to watch two of the biggest four races in the country within an hour of each other. One for the stayers, and one for the sprinters.
Like The Everest though, this year’s edition of the Caulfield Cup looks a weak one, although perhaps that is being harsh.
Smokin’ Romans is the firm favourite, coming off his Turnbull Stakes win and dropping four kilograms, down to 51.5 kilos into this. It’s the profile that absolutely deserves to be respected as the one to beat.
But, the Turnbull was a very weak edition itself, and was also very slowly run. Almost all of the field essentially finished where they settled in the run, playing follow the leader all the way around. Very few horses outperformed their position, which casts plenty of doubt over the entire race.
Can a horse that couldn’t win a benchmark 84 at this track and distance a year ago, like Smokin’ Romans, really win a Caulfield Cup?
Eight horses that finished behind Smokin’ Romans in the Turnbull Stakes are also engaged in this race – Maximal (second), Knight’s Order (fourth), Gold Trip (fifth), Inspirational Girl (seventh), Duais (eighth), Great House (10th), Chapada (12th) and Crystal Pegasus (14th).
We are almost certainly going to be faced with a heavy track on Saturday, and Knight’s Order is the best wet tracker of that lot. He’s had an outstanding 12 months, has been in great form this prep, will go to the front and take some running down.
Great House ran fifth in the Caulfield Cup last year, beaten 5.5 lengths behind Incentivize, who would pulverise this field if he was here. Despite finishing 10th in the Turnbull, he was actually one of the few eye-catchers in the race.
You can make decent cases for others, and people will for Gold Trip, Duais and Inspirational Girl. Gold Trip will probably handle the ground the best of that trio, which could put him in the mix.
What about the Sydney form, which ties into Knight’s Order, given his first two runs this campaign were up there? The Kingston Town Stakes is a big pointer, which was followed by the Metropolitan.
Alegron won the Kingston Town, on a soft track, with Benaud right behind him having just given too big of a start. They both ran top three on a bog track in the ATC Derby back in April, a race that can so often be a great pointer to the Caulfield Cup.
Knight’s Order was third in that Kingston Town, a length behind the quinella, and meets them half a kilo better for it. Alegron hasn’t run since, but Benaud was only 2.5 lengths behind Anamoe, I’m Thunderstruck and Zaaki last week in the Might and Power. It’s compelling form dropping 6 kilos from that into a Caulfield Cup. Nonconformist is in a similar boat, and did run second in this race last year.
No Compromise won the Metropolitan after being beaten two lengths in the Kingston Town, so it strengthens the claims of those that finished in front of him.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
He’s a good wet tracker himself, and always presents well.
Montefilia and Numerian also come down from Sydney, having contested WFA races. They both ran in the Hill Stakes last start, beaten a long way by Cascadian. Numerian is a quality horse and goes well on wet, but might just have a bit too much weight and is a query at a strong 1600m. Montefilia was fourth in the Caulfield Cup last year, but can mix her performances.
The X-factor of the race could well be a Melbourne Cup winner, Vow and Declare. Let’s not forget he ran second in the Caulfield Cup back in 2019, and has been humming along beautifully this prep. He’s well in at the weights if he can find his best form, but might need a firmer deck than he’ll get.
There’s certainly enough tempo in the race to ensure they won’t dawdle, but there’s not quite enough that they will go at a hectic gallop either. Ultimately, if we’re on heavy 10 which looks likely, the ability to handle the ground is far more important than tempo or position in running.
Selections: 1.Knight’s Order 2.No Compromise 3.Benaud 4.Smokin’ Romans
Elsewhere on the 10-race Caulfield Cup, Mr Maestro looks the good thing of the day in the Caulfield Classic for three-year-olds given his two powerful Flemington wins leading into this, including on a heavy track.
There’s plenty of open races on the support program, with a number of big fields. Punters will have their work cut out narrowing some of them down.
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