Opinion
Moonee Valley’s big weekend of the year is upon us, hosting the weight-for-age championship of Australia in the Cox Plate. On Friday night the Manikato Stakes meeting will greet us for the sprinters to have their chance at capturing Group 1 glory.
It’s been a while since Moonee Valley had any luck with the weather for their biggest days. The 2020 and 2021 editions of the Cox Plate were run on soft tracks, and the All-Star Mile held there in 2021 was also held on a very wet surface. It looks like we’ll be faced with the same scenario again on Saturday, with rain forecast from Friday.
Anamoe will jump as the firm favourite in the big one on Saturday, a circumstance that can only be helped by drawing perfectly in barrier four.
He’s won three Group 1 races in a row to be unbeaten this campaign, and he’s been building fitness all the while. The last of those wins was the most impressive, in the Might and Power Stakes, where he defeated the strongest field he’s met in his career despite not rounding the Caulfield home turn perfectly, and now he has the luxury of meeting them all half a kilo better at the weights.
Anamoe has been responsible for some of the most breathtaking wins of the last few seasons, whether it was his effortlessly arrogant win in the Sires at two, his sensational Caulfield Guineas win in record time on a fast deck or seven-length romp in the Rosehill Guineas on a wet track. It would be fitting for him to win the Cox Plate, and who knows what heights he can reach after that.
Zaaki is nominally the main danger to Anamoe, which has been helped by drawing barrier one for Saturday. It’s what connections wanted, so he can use the rail to guide him around the tight Moonee Valley track, but is that going to be an option if it’s been raining and we are at the tail end of 18 races in 24 hours? It is very likely that jockeys will want to keep their horses off the rail to find better ground.
If it becomes really heavy, Zaaki will be advantaged over Anamoe, as he was in the Queen Elizabeth at Randwick earlier this year, but the price at the moment seems unders.
The big question for Jamie Kah on Zaaki will be: how fast does she want to go? She has allowed Alligator Blood to dictate terms in their last two starts and let those races unfold rather than being the aggressor. Both times Zaaki hasn’t been suited and lost. She will not be able to make that mistake this time and win.
I’m Thunderstruck was in the driving finish at Caulfield last start, splitting Anamoe and Zaaki, with less than half a length covering the three of them. ‘Thunder’ is a beauty, and as a gelding he’s going to be a threat in WFA races for a few years yet. He’s drawn a tricky gate here, which might make things hard, but he’s certainly capable of winning if Anamoe or Zaaki don’t quite get it right.
Alligator Blood and Mr Brightside weren’t able to match the aforementioned three at the 2000m of the Might and Power Stakes, and it feels unlikely they’ll be able to beat all three over 2040m of what is sure to be a much higher pressure Cox Plate. Both are as honest as the day is long and will give their all, and they’re sure to contribute to the overall quality of the race.
Mo‘unga seems to need bone-dry tracks to be competitive against the very best these days, something he has rarely struck in 2022. But he’s run second at Group 1 level the only two times he’s been on good this year. He’s unlikely to see that this week.
Gold Trip is backing up from the Caulfield Cup, an event we rarely see these days. The race is better for it. He was scratched from the Cox Plate last year and has been consistent without winning in his four runs since arriving in Australia. His second-place finish with the top weight last week was a mighty effort and says he is here to run well.
Laws of Indices has been racing really well in the handicaps, but this is a different kettle of fish. Young Werther has two Turnbull Stakes placings to his credit in the last 12 months but needs to find a bit to be in the finish. Maximal keeps trying to dodge wet tracks but might find another, and he hardly looks good enough anyway. Profondo is in the sin bin until further notice.
That takes care of the locals, but there is one international visitor in the field: El Bodegon.
If you take away Winx, the last four winners of the Cox Plate were all having their first start in Australia – State of Rest, Sir Dragonet, Lys Gracieux and Adelaide. Many have bemoaned the lack of depth in our WFA ranks over the last decade, and there’s the proof.
It will be almost a year to the day since El Bodegon won a race, and his four losses since then have been by an average of almost six lengths. It will hardly be the highest recommendation of the class we have in Australia if he comes here and takes out our most prestigious WFA race, but his international credentials must have him somewhere in the game, and the market respects him.
Zaaki and Alligator Blood are the almost certain leading two runners. John Allen will surely make the most of barrier three on Laws of Indices and try to hold a forward position, and Damien Lane might do the same from gate two on Young Werther. Profondo won’t be far away, and Damien Oliver on El Bodegon will ride him where comfortable from a middle draw.
Selections: 1. Anamoe, 2. Zaaki, 3. I’m Thunderstruck, 4. El Bodegon
The best of Australian sprinting was on display at the Everest last week, but the Manikato has assembled a pretty solid backup field when a Group 1 winner like Savatoxl has only been able to qualify as first emergency.
Paulele is one of few horses in this field that you’d say would have acquitted himself well in the Everest and thus deserves his favouritism here. He warmed up too late in the Moir Stakes at the Valley first-up, showed his doggedness and class when winning over 1100m at Caulfield last start and should be even better at 1200m.
Bella Nipotina is just so honest and will be well deserving of a Group 1 win if she can claim one. She ran second in this race last year and is going even better now.
Rothfire might be the forgotten horse in some ways, and we’re getting appreciable each-way value if suspecting he’s ready for 1200m now. We know September Run can pop up at odds, as she did in the William Reid here back in March.
Roch ‘N’ Horse is seriously underrated – even if we forget her Newmarket win, her second to Private Eye last start looks like the best form around given that horse was just nosed out of an Everest.
The three-year-old colt Best of Bordeaux has been carrying weight in Sydney and drops down to 53 kilos at WFA. He will try and spear to the front and could very well take some catching. He’s a huge danger at a nice price.
Selections: 1. Best of Bordeaux, 2. Roch ‘N’ Horse, 3. Paulele, 4. Rothfire
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