Opinion
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s not just the race that stops a nation that sees some quality horses in action.
The support card also has quite a bit of depth to it and we should get some great racing all throughout the day.
Let’s see if we can find a winner.
Race 1
As usual, the babies are going to kick us off on Melbourne Cup day, with a field of mostly unraced two-year-olds greeting the starter’s gun. Often it comes down to feel, when having a little bet.
We have seen two of these under race conditions, Zulfiqar winning here on debut, with Krakarib running sixth in the same race.
Chris Waller doesn’t rush his two-year-olds so if he’s got one up and running this early in the season, like he has here with Exposition, they are likely to be well conditioned and showing enough to be competitive.
Amelie is the one most bred to get through wet ground, so will be capable of springing a surprise at big odds.
Selections: 1. Exposition 2. Amelie 3. Zulfiqar 4. Diabelli
Trainer Chris Waller (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Race 2
The 2800m race on Melbourne Cup day has long been a staple and it can often throw up a promising stayer.
White Marlin looks to be that horse this year, having started his career with four wins on end – two in Europe and two in Australia for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.
His form has got better over the weekend too – the horse he beat into second two starts ago won the VRC Derby on Saturday, and the horse he beat into second last-start won the Peninsula Cup on Sunday. He has to be top pick.
Verimili has been going well in better races than this and will enjoy the drop in class while staying at the same weight. Team Captain was only a length and a half behind Lunar Flare in the Moonee Valley Cup, and she’s a live hope in the Melbourne Cup. Caboche was third in the Queensland Derby back in May, and can win.
Selections: 1. White Marlin 2. Verimili 3. Team Captain 4. Caboche
Race 3
The Greys race used to be on Oaks day, but has been shifted to Melbourne Cup day. It’s always one of the toughest races to pick in Cup week, but there may not be a great deal of depth to the race this year.
Struck By is a good Adelaide horse, is proven at a higher level than this, and has come back well based on his effortless first-up win at Morphettville. He likes to set the pace and there is a bit of speed in this, so that might be the concern.
The Waller/McDonald combination is always to be feared in Cup week, and Ascension is on the radar after turning his form around to win at big odds last start. That was a heavy track too, which he might find again here.
The Cunning Fox is the x-factor horse, resuming as a four-year-old after making his name as a stayer of some promise in the autumn. Kooled has been consistent but might have come to the end of his prep. Excelman won this race last year, but has gone awful since.
Selections: 1. Struck By 2. Ascension 3. The Cunning Fox 4. Kooled
Race 4
An 1800m race for three-year-olds presents with some promising types in the field.
Quang Tri is the testing material after proving her class as a two-year-old, and showing she’d come back well with a soft win first-up in a small field at Caulfield. She’s quickly up to 1800m and has a wide draw, so there may be a few chinks in the armour.
Zoe’s Promise is coming off two wins, including a Group 2 at Moonee Valley, and will likely set the pace and give the favourite something to catch. She meets Quang Tri three kilos worse for a 1.5-length defeat earlier in the year, so is up against it.
Dashing is due for a win, having been racing against the best horses of his age, and performing competitively. He was only beaten a length and a half in the Caulfield Guineas, and didn’t quite run out a strong 2040m in the Vase last start. The drop in distance here suits.
Dream Hour looks a good each-way chance at odds, coming off two wins and an eye-catching run in the Geelong Classic.
Selections: 1. Dashing 2. Quang Tri 3. Zoe’s Promise 4. Dream Hour
(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Race 5
One of the great sights in racing is when a large field of horses thunders all the way down the Flemington straight. That’s what we have here, with the three-year-olds racing over 1000m.
A handy field has been assembled, where you could give a chance to most of them, and it’s arguably the toughest race of the day.
Zou Sensation pulled up with an internal haemorrhage last start, but before that had been chasing some good horses. You’ll get a nice price if he can overcome that setback. Xtravagant Star has had all the wraps, but failed first-up. Question marks over where she’s at.
Port Albert is another at good double figures, one of a few here that have form around Lascars. Lascars was second to Everest winner Giga Kick back in July, but has been okay without raving since. Shalaman gave up the ghost last start, but prior to that had been building a nice profile against some smart ones.
Selections: 1. Shalaman 2. Zou Sensation 3. Lascars 4. Port Albert
Race 6
An 1800m race at Listed level.
Just Folk deserves favouritism, as one of the best second tier wet trackers in the country, having gone to a new level in 2022 with plenty of wet tracks for him in Melbourne and Sydney. Yes he’s got 60 kgs and barrier 15, but he’s used to carrying weight and having a wide run won’t hurt him as long as he’s got cover.
White Noise might be the main danger, despite being a big price. The Kiwi horse missed the start in the Sale Cup last time out, and you can certainly argue he should have won the race. Dynasties must go in. She’s beaten Gypsy Goddess at 1800m, and we saw that mare just run third in the Golden Eagle. Bermadez is always a threat at this level.
Selections: 1. White Noise 2. Dynasties 3. Just Folk 4. Bermadez
Race 7
Head on over to our Melbourne Cup preview, where the pros and cons of each runner is assessed.
Selections: 1. Deauville Legend 2. Smokin’ Romans 3 .High Emocean 4. Daqiansweet Junior
Race 8
Some nice horses have been brought together for this 1400m contest, which translates into another tough betting proposition.
Nugget is having his first race in the country, having been procured from the UK. Minsk Moment is maturing into his career for Chris Waller, and James McDonald is on board. The Garden is in the mix, but doesn’t want it too wet.
Munhamek and Pascero have faced each other in handy races a couple of times this spring, with advantage to the former both times. Detonator Jack is sired by a Melbourne Cup placegetter, so might find this a bit short upon resumption, but he’s certainly a big watch.
Selections: 1. Minsk Moment 2. Munhamek 3. Nugget 4. Detonator Jack
Race 9
Another huge field, this time for mares over 1400m chasing success at Group 3 level.
Promise of Success has certainly lived up to her name, winning The Invitation last start, and has the best credentials in the race. Turaath was too bad to be true on Derby Day, so could be worth a ticket if she backs up. Literary Magnate was well backed at a price to win on Guineas day, and came home with a beautifully timed run.
Heresy is due for another win, and perhaps a change of luck. Based on the way William Buick rode on Derby Day, she might not get either with him in the saddle, but if he can ride like the jockey of international renown that he’s supposed to be, she might hold all the aces.
Another Award could be worth another chance. Paul’s Regret can figure at huge odds. Finepoint is well and truly in the game if she gets a run.
Selections: 1. Heresy 2. Finepoint 3. Promise of Success 4. Literary Magnate
Race 10
Another big straight race to finish the Melbourne Cup day card.
The Astrologist is just so good and honest in these straight races, so he must always be respected. Najmaty looked to be making a nice horse as a three-year-old filly, but is yet to be seen at four. A heavy track will be the problem for her, and they may in fact scratch her rather than run.
Pioneer River was building up to a win before getting caught deep from a wide draw at Moonee Valley last start. He’s won a few races down the Flemington straight, so knows what he’s doing.
Amish Boy will win a race one day, but we’ve been saying that for years. Nicolini Vito is ready to show up again, as is Zethus, but not sure about them on a heavy track if that’s what we get. Vespertine is often thereabouts without really threatening to win, and it’s time for her to step up.
Selections: 1. The Astrologist 2. Pioneer River 3. Zethus 4. Amish Boy
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