There is just one game left in the NRL season, and with a severely disrupted build-up, tipping it is proving to be a minefield. This is The Roar‘s NRL expert tipping panel for the grand final.
With AJ tipping both of last week’s games after taking both of the teams with a week off to get through to the decider, he has taken the overall victory in tipping.
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The Crowd, who picked the Rabbitohs by a margin of just three per cent, are now two tips behind and with just a game to go AJ holds an unassailable lead.
Having joined the panel for the first time this season, he will have a target on his back as the man to catch next year from the rest of us.
The Crowd will finish second, while Tim takes third. I’m a tip behind Tom, so would love to, at worst, tie for the wooden spoon instead of winning the thing outright. Please.
The build-up to the decider started last Friday night with the fall-out to Billy Slater’s shoulder charge on Cronulla winger Sosaia Feki and has continued to pick up steam ever since.
It’s been a strange build-up though. Only now, at the end of the week, can we start to talk about what the match may actually look like, although a large part of that is still reliant on whether Cooper Cronk will be able to prove his fitness at the eleventh hour.
With Slater passed by the judiciary to play, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the tri-colours, who must stop a team in their third straight grand final, who are also gunning to be the first team to go back to back in 25 years.
Cameron Munster of the Storm celebrates (Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
Don’t forget to submit your tips on the form below by 3pm (AEST) on Sunday to be part of The Crowd as you take on the experts.
On that note, I’d like to thank our experts for their contributions to making this piece work throughout the year, and thank all of the Roarers for tipping each week.
Over to our winner, AJ, to get us underway for the final time this season.
Tip: Roosters by 2
It’s set up for a doozy. 1 vs 2, the two best defences, outside backs who can do great things and a forward pack that will grind and grind and grind.
These defences are so good that it’ll be a genuine surprise to see any points scored in the middle 30 metres of the field. The Storm choked the Sharks last week and the Roosters more than capably dealt with the Rabbitoh’s dynamism.
Trent Robinson has his team well drilled and schemed. If Cooper Cronk doesn’t play it’s a hammer blow – but for the Roosters it’s next man up, next man in. They all know the rules and what’s expected.
That’s why Robinson could throw a second gamer into a preliminary final in place of an Origin star and know the kid would play his role.
Trent Robinson (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
The Roosters have been growing into their skin through the season as the new recruits in key positions learned combinations and habits on the job. It took a little while, but they’ve come together at the best time of the season.
While the Roosters would have confidence, so would the Storm. You can say Craig Bellamy’s men are as well drilled and educated about their opponent as their challenger. There’s youthful exuberance, grizzled veterans who want titles and of course, Billy Slater who may just sign off with another grand final win.
Who wins? It’s a bloody tight call because there’s so many similarities on both sides of the ball. There’s difference makers everywhere – Mitchell, Addo-Carr, Munster, Radley, Manu, you name them.
It will be a great game with neither combatant giving an inch. I’m on the Roosters because of their defence and depth in the forwards.
Enjoy the game everybody!
Clive Churchill Medal: Luke Keary
First try-scorer: Curtis Scott
Tip: Storm by 4
This will be a low scoring and tightly contested game.
Both sides have based their seasons on uncompromising defence and it has paid the ultimate dividend of getting them to the decider.
It’s the sixth time in the NRL era that the top two ranked sides after the home and away rounds have ended up in the grand final.
There is so little between the sides. However, the Storm have more grand final experience in their roster and are at full strength. Further, they are farewelling the champion, Billy Slater.
Conversely, the Roosters will be (more than likely) missing their halfback with that shoulder injury he picked up last weekend against South Sydney.
It is those two differences that will decide this game and hand it to the Storm, who become the first team to go back-to-back in over two decades.
Clive Churchill Medal: Cameron Smith
First try-scorer: Blake Ferguson
Cameron Smith of the Storm (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Tip: Roosters by 9
In one of the most unpredictable seasons to date, it feels almost anti-climactic to have two of the pre-season favourites squaring off in the decider. But it shouldn’t come as a surprise. In fact, the only shocking aspect of the Storm taking on the Rosters is that it’s taken so long for these two powerhouse clubs to meet in the grand final.
Consider this – either the Roosters or the Storm have featured in 14 of the last 18 grand finals! So the next time someone tells you that third-party agreements don’t impact the parity of the competition, please laugh in their face.
Anyway, anti-salary cap sentiments aside, this should be an absolute belter of a game. The drama surrounding the build-up is enough to keep Aaron Sorkin up at night.
The Cronk defection, followed by Cronk leading his new team to a grand final, against his old team no less, and then getting injured in the preliminary final and potentially missing out on the very moment he was hired to deliver. And that’s without even touching on the Slater insanity.
Seriously, you couldn’t script this stuff.
But even without Cronk, and despite the theatre of Billy’s last game, I’m going with the Chooks. Which is hard for me to admit, seeing that I hate them with every fibre of my being. Why? Because defence wins titles.
Of the previous eight premiership winners, five have finished the season ranked first in defence, which is exactly where the Roosters finished 2018. And look no further than the preliminary final to witness the value of their defence, in which they kept the South Sydney Rabbitohs, the best attacking side in the competition who averaged 23 points per game, tryless across the entire 80 minutes.
Cooper Cronk injured his shoulder in the prelim. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
The way I see it, the Chooks will come out of the blocks at a million miles an hour. Their meatheads will be pushing off the back fence, with Napa likely to break more jaws than a 1990s Mike Tyson. With an early deficit, Melbourne will panic, and when the Storm panic, they start to play dirty.
The emotion of Slater’s final game will suddenly become an epic burden, as Smith and the young playmakers overplay their hand trying to send the greatest fullback of all time out a winner. But it will be to no avail.
Clive Churchill Medal: James Tedesco
First try-scorer: Latrell Mitchell
Tip: Storm by 10
Ah the grand final. I think I’d rather poke my eyes out with a pole than cheer on either of these two teams, despite the fact it’s probably going to be a pretty good game of footy, but at least tipping gives me some care factor as to who wins.
If you had of asked most who they had in the grand final at the start of the year, these two teams would have popped up plenty of times. I had the Storm and Cowboys for the record, but the tri-colours were next off the bat.
Unfortunately for the Roosters, the injury to Cooper Cronk is going to be a lot to overcome.
He will play if he can at all, but playing at 80 per cent for example against a Rabbitohs side who failed to attack him is a very different brand of challenge to the one Melbourne will present, who will no doubt give his shoulder a more thorough test across 80 minutes than any medical officer could do pre-game to get Cronk cleared.
In a game like the grand final – in fact, any game against the Storm – someone like Cronk is so vital. He is able to control the game, make sure the kicking game is accurate and clean and direct the team around.
If Billy Slater had of been rubbed out by the judiciary, I would have rated the Roosters a chance whether Cronk was there or not, but now Cronk is going to need the game of life, alongside James Tedesco, if the Roosters are to win.
Billy Slater (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
However, they won’t.
With Slater joined by veteran skipper Cameron Smith and outside backs ready to light up the game, plus a forward pack who rolled straight over the top of Cronulla last week like they might as well not have been there, they are heavy favourites and deservedly so.
Playing in his last game, I expect Slater to go out on top, playing a cracker and taking home a Clive Churchill medal for his troubles before being able to enjoy the final minutes of his career with a lead big enough that it won’t be in doubt durig the last five.
Clive Churchill Medal: Billy Slater
First try-scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
| Grand final | Tim | Tom | AJ | Scott | The Crowd |
| ROO v STO | Storm | Roosters | Roosters | Storm | ??? |
| Margin | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | ??? |
| Clive Churchill Medal | Smith | Tedesco | Keary | Slater | ??? |
| First try-scorer | Ferguson | Mitchell | Scott | Addo-Carr | ??? |
| Last week | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 113 | 108 | 118 | 107 | 116 |
Crowd tipping will close at 3pm (AEST) on Sunday afternoon. Be sure to submit your tips on the form below before then to make your opinion count as part of The Crowd.
On the table below, please only select a margin for the team you tipped.
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