There’s nine days until the first Group One of the spring and the best preview for the carnival ahead can be enjoyed by racing fans on Saturday.
There are 12 Stakes races set down for decision at Flemington and Warwick Farm this weekend.
And with the Sydney Spring Carnival only a month away from its October 6 climax, there are plenty of budding stars entered at the Farm on Saturday.
But history indicates Makybe Diva Stakes Day at Flemington will provide the best sneak peak for the spring.
Ten horses who finished in the top four of a race on this day at Flemington last year won during the Carnival; nine of them at Group level. The meeting produced six future Group One winners, four of which won at the highest level later that spring.
The biggest impression was made in the final event of the day when December Draw – a three length victor – laid the foundations for a fruitful preparation.
The European import went onto to win the Turnbull Stakes (Group One) before finishing down the track when injured, as favourite, in the Caulfield Cup.
Expect to see similar Carnival pointers in Saturday’s closer (2000m).
The top weight Shewan was unlucky to miss out on a Melbourne Cup place last year and will be out to atone this spring, while Lloyd Williams’ Excluded has been touted as a country cups horse but I’ve no doubt he has the potential to be competitive in the major handicaps this spring.
European import Budai, who has offered little in Australia, put the writing on the wall at Caulfield last start, while the 100 percent Aussie-made Norsqui is one of the better genuine staying handicappers in the country.
The other star to emerge on Makybe Day 2011 was the eventual Cox Plate heroine, Pinker Pinker, who continued her impeccable second-up record when recording victory in the Group Two Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m).
Pinker Pinker then went to Sydney for the Epsom where she finished second to Secret Admirer (who also runs on Saturday) before claiming the weight-for-age Championship of Australasia at Moonee Valley.
Nothing jumps off the page when looking at this year’s Let’s Elope field, but there will be plenty of interest in the performance of New Zealand Oaks winner Miss Artistic and the improving Lady Melksham (part-owned by a number of Essendon stars), who charged late to steal victory at Group Three level three weeks ago.
Four-time Group One winner Sepoy returned to racing on Makybe Diva Day in the Danehill (1200m) last year.
Unimpressive in victory, the eventual Manikato Stakes and Coolmore Stud winner did enough to hold off Hallowell Belle in the Group Two sprint.
I’m going to make a big call and say that Snitzerland will follow in the footsteps of Sepoy by not only winning Saturday’s Danehill but also Derby Day’s Coolmore Stud.
Snitzerland may not line-up in the Manikato because it now falls only eight days before the Coolmore, but she could be Australia’s next headline sprinter.
Snitzerland has won three of her six starts but her last two have outings have been outstanding.
In the Golden Slipper she finished second behind Pierro (who followed her all the way) and he may be remembered as the best two-year since Luskin Star in 1977.
Snitzerland then returned to racing three weeks ago with a brilliant victory over the Rosehill short-course when she, admittedly, had favours in front.
The Danehill has a champion’s honour roll.
Along with Sepoy, it has been won by Falvelon (dual Hong Kong Sprint winner).
It was most famously won by Black Caviar in 2009 when the unbeaten champ overcame a slow start and injuries (not dissimilar to those she suffered at Royal Ascot) to record a narrow victory over Wanted, an eventual Newmarket Handicap winner in his own right.
The focus on Saturday will be on the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m). The race was named in honour of the triple Melbourne Cup winning mare in 2007 even though she never competed in the event.
Never won by an average horse, the Makybe Diva, for whatever reason, hasn’t been the greatest spring guide in recent years. Last year it was won by Littorio in stunning fashion but injury ended his campaign thereafter.
In 2010, Shocking shot to the top of Cup markets after his last-to-first Makybe victory but he too couldn’t repeat the dose in the business end of the spring.
In fact, you have to go back to Northerly in 2002 to find a horse that won a major in the same spring they were victorious in the Craiglee.
‘The fighting tiger’ Northerly claimed both the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate that season.
In 2011, Glass Harmonium finished second to Littorio before recording his first Group One victory in a determined showing on Derby Day in the LKS Mackinnon.
But poor barrier manners ruined any chance of success in the Cox Plate (where he finished tenth) and Melbourne Cup (22nd).
The Southern states’ best weight-for-age horses line-up in Saturday’s Makybe Diva.
Reigning Caulfield Cup champion Southern Speed will be looking to continue her good form at Flemington (second Australian Cup, fourth Turnbull) and the South Australian mare won’t be short of confidence having created a big impression when winning in Adelaide two weeks ago.
Stablemates Efficient, Mourayan and Midas Touch are also engaged.
I was at Caulfield last week to witness an exhibition gallop between Efficient, Mourayan and the unengaged Seville. I thought Efficient, in particular, worked quite well.
Now a nine-year old, the 2007 Melbourne Cup winner shouldn’t be sighted in the finish on Saturday but a good closing section will have his large band of followers content.
Efficient will attempt to become the first horse ever to win the Melbourne Cup (or any race for that matter) for a second time, six seasons after his first win in the great handicap.
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