The Sydney racing carnival is upon us and, despite many of the large stables bypassing the season, it still looms as an excellent precursor for the spring with the crop of three year olds set to dominate.
Here are my five bold predictions for the season.
The Bakers reign supreme
Murray Baker has been one New Zealand’s leading trainers for the best part of 20 years but over the last five years he has been targeting Australian racing with great success.
In the past five years, he has claimed the VRC Derby with Kibbutz in 2007 (transferred to David Hayes) and Lion Tamer in 2010 as well at the 2008 AJC Derby with Nom de Jeu.
12 month ago, Bjorn Baker set up stables at Warwick Farm which has opened up ease of operation to shuttle horses between New Zealand and Australia at will.
The father-son combination has marvelled with the success of It’s a Dundeel but it may be a two year old Testa Rossa filly of the Baker’s to grab headlines later in the year.
Twilight Royale claimed the Group 2 VRC Sires Produce Stakes on the weekend in a manner so common amongst Murray Baker trained winners. Pocketed the whole way in running, Michael Rodd could not get Twilight Royale into the clear until the 300m mark and from there she blitzed the field to win by three lengths.
Twilight Royale has now unfortunately gone to the paddock and will take no further part in the Sydney carnival. The filly has won over $400,000 in just five starts.
Besides It’s a Dundeel and Twilight Royale, a three year old exceed and excel gelding by the name of Betrayal is moving through the ranks after winning a barrier trial by eight lengths.
The carnival looms as a breakout season for Bjorn to take it to the larger metropolitan stables.
Vatuvei will develop strong spring credentials
The Peter Moody trained stayer first caught my attention with his last-to-first victory in the Moonee Valley Cup last year.
He looks a dour type who trails the field the entire way and if he kicks, he wins and if he doesn’t he romps in 30 lengths behind the winner.
Perhaps Moody hasn’t quite figured out his Reset gelding but his run in the Blamey Stakes over 1600m was mighty encouraging. The distance in the Blamey was far too short but he was hitting the line faster than any horse except Puissance de Lune, the eventual winner.
Coming around the bend, he had given up 15 lengths off the leader and managed to lose by just four.
Vatuvei probably isn’t a weight-for-age horse yet but he looks a great handicap stayer.
A Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m) campaign via the Chairman’s Handicap (Group 2, 2600m) could be the go for the four year old.
With most of the top tier stayers opting to bypass the autumn carnival, watch for Vatuvei to fill the void.
Nash Rawiller’s days at Tulloch Lodge are limited
Since moving from Melbourne to Sydney in 2007 to become to the stable rider for the powerful Gai Waterhouse operation, Nash Rawiller has flourished.
With consistent rides for Australia’s largest owners who confide in Waterhouse’s training, Rawiller has continuously been in the mount of highly credentialed horses and is never short of rides.
In the last six months however, Rawiller dropped off in form like never before in his career.
The 38 year old hoop as a shocking spring campaign and has been maligned for his ride on Pierro in the Caulfield Guineas. He then came within a whisker of losing the Hobartville Stakes when he kicked on Pierro prematurely.
Rawiller is dangerously out of form and the security he has for being a stable rider is thinning.
Pierro’s last season
The Golden Slipper winner and poster boy for Sydney racing is nearing his last saddle. From a financial perspective, there is no need to race Pierro beyond this season and a stallion career undoubtedly awaits.
The allure to race the colt into the spring may be considered under the circumstance of his arch nemesis, All Too Hard’s impending retirement but as a miler, if he didn’t win the Cox Plate last year, he won’t win it this year.
Depending on where the Pierro-All Too Hard scorecard finishes at the end of the autumn, a European raid may be considered.
Expect their rivalry to run into the decades if they both hit the breeding barn in the same season.
Ocean Park to win in Dubai and beyond
Despite a poor first up performance since winning the Cox Plate, Ocean Park bolted home in the New Zealand Stakes (Group 1, 2000m) to be confirmed as the best weight-for-age horse in Australasia.
Beating All Too Hard and Pierro in the Cox Plate, the form of the three year olds during the autumn only solidify Ocean Park as one of the world’s best.
By Thorn Park, the Gary Hennessy trained Ocean Park is now being prepared for the $5m Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Group 1, 1800m) at Meyden on March 30, a race Australasia last won in when Elvstroem claimed the 2005 edition.
After Dubai, Ocean Park will jet set over to Royal Ascot where a win in the Prince of Wales Stakes (Group 1, 2012m) would firmly perch Ocean Park amongst the world’s finest.
It is extremely exciting for fans to hear Hennessy has no plans to retire his entire in the near future.
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