Black Caviar at almost backable odds for a change. She’s won 24 straight and is going for her 15th Group 1 win. So, is something amiss? Is a first-ever defeat a genuine possibility for the champion?
Bookies are giving punters every reason to get on as Black Caviar takes to Randwick in Sydney this Saturday in the TJ Smith Stakes, the last race of the day, run at 5.10pm AEST.
Instead of the usually prohibitive odds of around $1.04, bookmakers are offering as much as $1.15 or more on the wondermare.
Why? We know that when something looks too good to be true it usually is, so we’ve examined a few of the key factors that could potentially affect Black Caviar’s bid for a 25th straight win.
Weather
As of 9.30am this morning, the Randwick course is rated a Slow 6. For non-racing fans, that’s just shy of being a bit of a bog track.
Indeed, Randwick was inundated by rain on Monday, with the track rated the worst it could be – a Heavy 10.
But with blue skies and a forecast for more autumn sun, the track will very likely be rated much better.
Peter Moody, Black Caviar’s trainer, has said the great mare has a limit on a Slow 6 – any worse, and she won’t run.
Although Mother Nature throws up plenty of surprises, given the forecast, this won’t be an issue.
The Field
At first glance, the field against Caviar is imposing: five individual Group 1 winners oppose her, including Hay List, Bel Sprinter, Atomic Force, Sea Siren and Epaulette.
However, scratch the surface and it’s a different story. Hay List isn’t in his 2011 form when he gave Black Caviar something to chase – he’s unfit after injury, and using the race to attempt to gain some form and fitness for the All Aged Stakes.
Bel Sprinter is an impressive last-start winner at Rosehill, with the same sire as Black Caviar, but he’s nowhere near the class of the mare. He trashed Sea Siren which would seem to put paid to her.
The only other horse with anything within a mile of Black Caviar is Epaulette, a handy three year old colt who has raced with All Too Hard and Pierro.
Those two horses would make things much more interesting, but Epaulette is first-up from a spell, and hasn’t been seen since the Spring. For him to really trouble her, it’d be an incredible upset.
She’s drawn barrier 1 – and Moody’s happy with that, saying “We have the best barrier and the best horse, so things are going all right.”
When asked about the possibility of rival jockeys ganging up on the great mare, Moody was blunt:
“Plenty have ridden against her and are still using vasoline to cover their windburn,” the trainer said.
Sydney
Sydney races run clockwise, as opposed to anti-clockwise. Black Caviar’s hardest win was in this race in 2011. Some good judges say that a natural Melbourne horse loses 2L when travelling on the ‘Sydney leg’.
But more than that, Sydney jockeys and trainers have been saying for weeks they are going to try and take the race to Caviar.
In Melbourne, it’s often been a case of jog the first and watch her outsprint them all at the end.
From barrier 1, the other jockeys will have their work cut-out to trouble Caviar’s jockey Luke Nolen, but he’s had a brain explosion before, and we all saw More Joyous beaten from the same barrier after a bad ride.
What the bookies are saying
With some bookies offering as much as $1.15, we thought we’d get the word from the horses mouth. As such.
Sportsbet spokesman Shaun Anderson said that while Black Caviar had drifted ever so slightly from her opening quote of $1.08, the market indicated that punters still expected the mare to salute.
“She’s clearly still the best horse in the race, but this is the first race in awhile she has had some better competition and obviously the weather earlier in the week has had an effect as well,” he said.
“But she is the class horse, she’s in career-best form and she is still breaking track records.
“She has still attracted the majority of money in the market and if the last few races she’s raced in are anything to go by there will be some big bets coming in by Saturday.”
Are you going to chase the best odds we’ve seen on Black Caviar since Royal Ascot?
Tristan Rayner is the Editor of The Roar and is a lifelong fan of horse racing.
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