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This Thursday will be the 100th running of the Grafton Cup and the word coming out of Grafton its the best ever field they have assembled.
The Grafton track is currently rated a Dead 5 and with possible showers predicted over the next couple of days we will be looking at something close to a Dead-Slow surface.
There is a tonne of pace in this full field of 16 runners (with three emergencies) and I can see Voila Ici, Mr O’Ceirin and Piazza San Pietro all going forward.
Mr O’Ceirin looks the likely leader from his car park draw (Barrier 19).
Fuimicino, Zennista, Reuben Percival and Shenzhou Steeds will all be handy and up on the pace with Destiny’s Kiss and the youngster Zar Zar Binks going to the back of the field.
In a previous article I backed both Zennista and Destiny’s Kiss who were very impressive in winning the Caloundra Cup and Winter Cup respectively.
The market has definitely found them both here as they are currently heading the betting, with Destiny’s Kiss the $4 favourite and Zennista on the second line of betting at $5.
In my opinion both these horses are far ahead of their last start rivals in the Caloundra Cup and Winter Cup.
Even though those rivals now meet the pair much better at the weights, I don’t believe this will be enough to make up for the margin they were defeated by.
I have a high opinion of both but I’ve had to try and split the two.
I’m leaning towards Zennista, as there could be a couple of things that could go wrong for Destiny’s Kiss.
It’s a big field of 16 runners, he may get too far back, and with the short straight on the Grafton track he may find it too hard to run down Zennista.
Also, the only form line I could find to separate the two is through Kaypers. Destiny’s Kiss two starts back beat Kaypers by three lengths (meeting at equal weights). Where as last start, Zennista beat Kaypers by 10 lengths (Zennista carried 1kg more).
Zennista is one of only two mares in the race and is carrying a hefty weight for a female but personally I feel she is a super horse and will have no problem with the extra weight.
I believe she will sit fourth or fifth throughout, Damien Browne will put her to sleep and as they turn she will be hitting the front holding out all challenges.
Without doubt Destiny’s Kiss is the main danger, who I also have a high opinion of, and looks to have a big future for the Joseph Pride yard.
We all know the talent of Mr O’Ceirin when he leads and if he gets easy sectionals in front it wouldn’t shock me if leads all the way. Ciaron Maher has been targeting the Grafton Cup this prep before a spring campaign and his last start at Mooney Valley when he finished third last just has to be forgotten because it was so out of character.
In summary, Zennista is on top for me, just ahead of Destiny’s Kiss and Mr O’ Ceirin. With the three year old Zar Zar Binks the best outsider of the race at $26.
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Now to Grafton’s other feature event, the Ramornie Handicap over 1200m on Wednesday.
Howmuchdoyouloveme is currently the $3.40 favourite and won this race last year carrying 54kg. This year he will carrying an extra 6.5kg but definitely has the class edge on his rivals.
There is certainly no lack of pace here with many horses vying for the lead including Adebisi, Big Bonanza, War Ends and Howmuchdoyouloveme. With Border Rebel, Pentasia and Celtic Dancer sitting just off the pace.
Even though there is a slight query whether she will run or not, Pentasia is on top for me.
She has drawn wide, but as long as she starts well should sit just off the hot speed. She also has the luxury of the bottom weight and has the turn of the foot to come over the top of the race leaders.
If she is scratched from the race then my next best would be River Lad. He has met race favourite Howmuchdoyouloveme at his last two starts.
Last start River Lad improved almost three lengths to finish 0.2 lengths behind the 4yo gelding (after meeting him 1kg better). In today’s race he again meets the classy sprinter a further 1kg better at the weights. I believe that will be enough to make up the 0.2 lengths.
Next best is Howmuchdoyouloveme who is certainly the best horse in the race but could be disadvantaged by the 60.5kg. He’s drawn wide so will go forward but will have a lot of competition in search for the lead.
Pentasia to take out the Ramornie Handicap from River Lad and Howmuchdoyouloveme.
Happy punting!
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