The Armstrong years saw the Tour de France largely defined by what happened in the Individual Time Trial. The same goes for three more recent years, but that won’t be the case in 2013.
Last year Bradley Wiggins’ Tour winning margin of 3:21 included taking 1:51 from second-placed teammate Chris Froome in the two Time Trials.
In 2011, Cadel Evans beat Andy Schleck by 2:31 in the ITT, famously snatching the Yellow Jersey on that stage and winning the Tour by 1:34.
Two years earlier, Alberto Contador won the Tour by 4:11 from Andy Schleck, taking a hefty 2:44 over the course of two Individual Time Trials.
Chris Froome may have a decisive lead heading into tonight’s second ITT, but his hold on the race lead is nowhere near as strong as it appears. And there are a number of reasons why.
The first came last night on Stage 16 when we saw a series of attacks on Chris Froome by Alberto Cantador on the final ascent into Gap.
It was only a Category Two climb but it was enough to split the race to pieces, and once again leave Froome with only Richie Porte for support.
Contador may not have gained any time on Froome but the intent was clear about what is planned over the next few days.
Looking to tonight and Froome has admitted that the parcours of Stage 17 don’t suit him as much as the first, much flatter ITT in Stage 11.
He has two Category Two climbs to conquer, but also two descents.
And as we saw at the Tirreno Adriatico in March, and briefly on the narrow roads into Gap, descending isn’t Froome’s strong point.
Throw in a small amount of pressure and who knows what could happen.
And even if Froome wins the Time Trial and increases his lead, there are recent editions of the Tour where what’s happened in the ‘race against the clock’ didn’t shape the overall result.
In 2008, Carlos Sastre beat Cadel Evans by 58 seconds, but conceded at total of 1:45 to Evans in the two time trials.
The Spaniard smashed Cadel on the Stage 17 ascent of Alpe D’Huez picking up 2:15.This followed another 47-second gain on stage 15.
In 2007, Alberto Contador’s 23-second victory over Cadel Evans came despite him losing 2:31 over the two Individual Time Trials.
Contador was too strong on Plateau de Beille (stage 14) beating Evans by 1:52, before he collected another 56 seconds the next day.
The most spectacular example though was in 1998.
The ‘Festina’ edition of the Tour began with Marco Pantani losing 5:04 to Jan Ulrich on the Stage 7 ITT. “Il Pirata” lost another 2:30 in the penultimate stage, again to Ulrich, but by then it didn’t matter.
After taking 1:40 from Ulrich on Stage 11 to Plateau de Beille, Pantani accumulated a massive 8:57 lead over the German on the Stage 15 ride from Grenoble to Les Deux Alpes. He won the Tour by 3:21.
So the contenders should have no feelings that their chase of Froome is a futile one.
When you look at the parcours over the next three stages, to suggest that Sky will be able to control the race on each stage is extremely difficult to imagine.
There might be two climbs of l’Alpe D’Huez to conclude Stage 18 but there are also three Category Two climbs and one Category Three to ascent deal with.
And if that wasn’t difficult, the descent of D’Huez after the first time up is simply frightening, as Tony Martin explained in the build-up to the Tour.
“The road is old, narrow, the surface bad, no barriers, if a rider makes a mistake he will face a free fall of 30 meters. To send us there is irresponsible. And I cannot imagine that anything about the road will change before the Tour,” he said.
Chris Froome won’t be the only one worried about this sector of Stage 18.
The next day offers a menu that begins with two Hors Category climbs, a Cat Two and two Category One climbs to finish before the descent into Le Grand Bornand.
And just to top things off, the Tour’s penultimate stage starts with a Category Two climb, is followed by a trio of Category Three ‘bergs and a Category One, before the HC mountain top finish in Annecy-Semnoz.
Including the Time Trial that’s 19 climbs in just three stages.
This is surely too much for what is now just six Team SKY riders to defend. How can there not be a time when Froome isn’t isolated like he was on the day to Bagnères-de-Bigorre.
After the events we’ve witnessed over the past two and a bit weeks, how can anyone even begin to think the Tour is over?!
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