Trying to pick a winner for this year’s elite men’s world championship road race is quite simply a nightmare. Actually it’s a mug’s game.
Some of the big names don’t have as many teammates to help them as their rivals.
Some of the big names have just finished a typically insane Vuelta a Espana and may not have the energy for such a tough course.
Some of the big names may simply not be able to handle this 272km climbfest.
Like you probably have, I’ve been flip-flopping on who to choose to win. Sure Cadel Evans and Richie Porte have some serious cred for this race, but not as much as Simon Gerrans would have had.
No doubt they can both deal with the climbs and, as I wrote last week, Cadel is a handy sprinter, but if, somehow, Peter Sagan makes the final selection then who will be able to stop him?
It’s a big if though, because the nature of the Tuscan course, reputed to be the toughest for maybe 30 years, has instantly discounted any sprinters from pre-race favouritism.
But what do you call Peter Sagan? He has shown his prowess in sprinting countless times but as he also demonstrated, and most recently in Montreal, he can attack on a climb.
Sagan is good enough to win in Florence but, unlike some other countries, he won’t have as many teammates to support him.
Crucially though, and this may affect how the race pans out, Sagan didn’t ride the Vuelta.
Those who did, and finished an event that probably went a bit too far up the vertical metres scales, may just have expended too much energy to fully recover. We’ve seen this on a few occasions this year already with Cadel Evans at the Tour after the Giro and most recently Vincenzo Nibali at the Vuelta.
For that reason, I’m going to put a line through Nibali’s hopes of a rainbow jersey in 2013, along with Alejandro Valverde, his compatriot Sammy Sanchez and new Vuelta champion Chris Horner.
So a rider who unusually didn’t ride the Vuelta looks perfectly primed for a big show in Florence.
Alberto Contador has won everything in cycling except a rainbow jersey, and after a solid, if ultimately disappointing Tour de France, has tapered his preparation nicely.
Five single-day races this month have not brought any great results – 45th in last week’s GP Montreal is his best – but these are the only races he’s done since July.
By next weekend, Contador will be so hungry for rainbow stripes he could eat a raw steak… except that’s probably not a wise idea.
This course has drawn comparisons to Liege-Bastogne-Liege, which features nine climbs in the final 100k’s. There are ten summits of the Fiesole (4.3km), but at LBL only the Col du Rosier is as long.
Defending champion Philippe Gilbert may take heart from this but by his own admission, the course is “very hard” and he only has seven teammates.
I fear Gilbert’s time in rainbow stripes may end on the same note as his title defence, one of anti-climax.’
Only eight countries have a full complement of riders to select. Spain, Colombia, Italy, Australia, The Netherlands, France, Poland and Switzerland can each pick nine riders.
We’ve already talked about Contador, Vincenzo Nibali and the Aussie contenders, so what about the others?
It’s always tempting fate with Spartacus but I can’t see Fabian Cancellara (Swiss) getting over the climbs, while the Dutch will be placing their hopes on Robert Gesink, who out-sprinted Sagan on an uphill finish to win the recent GP Quebec.
Tom Jelte Slagter may be quite young but, as he showed in the Tour Down Under, he is a very handy climber and quite good on the hillier circuits.
Assuming Nibali is unable to recover sufficiently from the Vuelta, where does that leave the other Grand Tour Winner from this year, Chris Froome?
I would say he’s my favourite to win if there wasn’t 10k’s to race after the final ascension of the Fiesole. This should allow a something of a regathering of contenders.
But this is where it gets interesting, as there are still two climbs on the run to the finish.
Firstly, the 600m Via Salviati at 5km to go. This climb peaks at a vicious 18 percent before the riders encounter the Trento, 200m long with 2.8km to ride. This rises to 10 percent.
That should reduce the race to a handful of riders, and try as I might to imagine otherwise, I can see Sagan being there, but strangely I can also see Froome, Contador and (hopefully) a previously well protected Cadel/Porte.
That said, if that were to happen, on any sprint involving Sagan, how can you bet against him?
So with a nod to Froome and Contador, it’s a little too hard to go past the Peter Sagan.
Thus, the man with 22 wins this year, including eight since the Tour de France, is my not-so-brave tip to add a rainbow jersey to his burgeoning collection.
Fancy a wager on your favourite sport? Head on over to PlayUp for great odds and friendly customer service and pick a winner. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Australia's Jai Hindley has said he is "lost for words" after a shock stage victory at the Tour de France earned him the leader's…
Australia's Jai Hindley has said he is "lost for words" after a shock stage victory at the Tour de France earned him the leader's…
Tadej Pogacar has won a drama-packed Tour of Flanders, winning in a breakaway with Matieu van der Poel second, Mads Pedersen third and Wout…
Women are not allowed to compete in the Tour de France. However you choose to re-read that sentence, the fact remains: the most famous…
The jam-packed month-by-month quiz full of 2022 sports trivia!
Australian Grace Brown has won silver in the women's time trial, the first event at the world road cycling championships.
