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The Caulfield Guineas is probably the first genuine classic of the season, accompanied by a reputation as a ‘stallion-maker’. Seldom does a bad horse win it, and almost all of tomorrow’s field are in very good form.
Long John, from the previous Guineas-winning Snowden camp, is a deserving favourite, having dominated his two year old races and followed up with three superb runs this campaign.
Having carried penalties in all three starts this time around, he meets his rivals at level weights for the first time this preparation and it will be a big ask for any of those he’s previously faced to beat him home.
One that might is Australia’s best maiden, Shamus Award, whose second in the Stutt Stakes racing on the speed was arguably the run of the night at Moonee Valley. First, third and fourth all came from the last three positions in the field, so he did a mighty job to only go down by the barest of margins.
Divine Calling was the winner that night, and another maiden, Cluster, was the remaining place-getter. The punters think the Stutt form doesn’t stack up to the Guineas Prelude or Golden Rose, but none of those three winning will shock at great odds.
Dissident was disappointing at face value in the George Main after an enormous second in the Golden Rose, but the likes of Streama, Royal Descent, Hawkspur and Fawkner finished ahead of him that day, and all have since run extremely well again in Group 1 company. He’s one that can’t be forgotten.
Prince Harada hasn’t been seen since the Golden Rose, and you can make a case that he should have won the race. He never saw daylight at any stage, and was clambering all over heels for the entire straight. That form is already holding up as it always does.
Éclair Big Bang was an authoritative winner of the Guineas Prelude, chasing down the Kiwi El Roca which gave a great sight out in front. Five of the last ten Guineas winners have finished first or second in that race, which means they must both be respected, but the afore-mentioned significant weight swing to Long John is going to see them hard pressed to maintain that advantage.
It doesn’t appear the deepest Guineas we’ve ever seen, but it does look even and should be run at a genuine tempo to give every horse their chance, which all makes for a competitive edition.
Selections
1.Prince Harada 2.Long John 3.Dissident 4.Shamus Award
The Toorak Handicap is over 130 years old, as time-honoured a race as there is on the Australian calendar. As ever, when the field is at its best, it’s hard to know where to look when trying to find a winning chance.
Common wisdom suggests that the Rupert Clarke is the key lead-up race to the Toorak, but it’s worth noting the winner has only come from there once in the last five years. That said, the horses coming from it this year do look to hold all the aces.
Unusually for a Group 1 handicap, the two favourites in the race are carrying the equal top weight of 58kg’s, Linton and Solzhenitsyn.
Linton is in career best form after taking out the Stradbroke earlier this year, and returned with a great run under weight in the Rupert Clarke, beaten just over a length. He normally improves second up, and if he does will be one of the toughest to crack.
Solzhenitsyn won the Toorak in 2012, and is probably a better horse now, even at seven years of age. Seldom does he run a bad race, if ever, and he’ll be appearing somewhere in the close-up photo when it’s taken of the winner crossing the line.
Speediness is the other key Rupert Clarke runner, the major eye-catcher out of the race when storming home after doing similar when recording victory in the Bobbie Lewis earlier in the Spring. Barrier sixteen will make it tough for him, but his last two starts suggest he’ll get well back anyway, and the last crack will be his.
Ferlax is the forgotten horse of the race at a huge $21 quote. He had a month between runs when following up his Memsie Stakes second with his mid-field Rupert Clark finish, and was still only beaten a couple of lengths. He’s ready for the mile now, and is a Group 1 winner at the distance.
Bass Straight is the interesting runner with trainer David Hayes targeting a Caulfield Cup start through winning the race, attempting the unusual 1600m – 2400m on the back up. What a masterful performance it would be, and he has to be some chance after his dominant win last time out.
Selections
1.Speediness 2.Linton 3.Solzhenitsyn 4.Ferlax
Atlantic Jewel is not the headline act of the day, which is unusual for her, but her fans will be just as eager to see her bounce back from her first defeat, nosed out by It’s a Dundeel in the Underwood Stakes.
She’ll be starting the Caulfield Stakes (formerly the Yalumba) deep in red figures, but recent history is in her favour in this regard, with three of the last four winners starting at $2 or shorter, and all three of them coming off a first or second in the Underwood.
Many experts are theorising that the 2000m might well and truly see her out, and while the six horse field may not see a fierce tempo, she’s up against enough quality to test her out.
Trainer Mark Kavanagh must think that Super Cool barely had a run in the Turnbull when he didn’t see a lot of luck, and will be looking to re-stake his Caulfield Cup claims here.
Spacecraft will lead them along and try to pinch the race as he did in the Feehan, Foreteller should camp in the middle and be looking to finish strongly, while Green Moon is ever-consistent and will be looking to finish off pleasingly on his way to defending his Melbourne Cup.
Selections
1.Atlantic Jewel 2.Super Cool 3.Foreteller 4.Green Moon
The Spring Champion is the other Group 1 of the day, still held at Randwick despite being moved from its Super Saturday position, perhaps in an attempt to move it one week closer to the Victorian Derby.
Using words like ‘good thing’, ‘moral’ and ‘can’t be beaten’ are a sure way to get a horse you like beat, but I keep coming back to these phrases when looking at Savvy Nature.
His Spring Stakes win at Newcastle over 1600m was convincing, and he followed up with the clear run of the race in the 1800m Gloaming, pulling right out wide from last while the winner got all the inside breaks.
He’s screaming out for 2000m and possibly further, so he should follow in his sire’s footsteps and win this race. I can honestly say I haven’t been keener on a horse over the entire spring so far, and Jim Cassidy should start preparing his speech for riding 100 Group 1 winners.
All of the above basically means that if you like Savvy Nature, you should probably back something else!
Drago has been looking for this sort of trip almost from the get-go in this campaign and will no doubt once again be doing his best work late, while Complacent was the Gloaming winner and is capable of jumping from maiden winner to Group 1 champion in three consecutive starts.
Rock Hero might be the best of those coming from outside the Gloaming, and if nothing else he’ll certainly be fit enough. Criterion is a watch runner who has ability but finds it tough to mix with the best.
Selections
1.Savvy Nature 2.Drago 3.Complacent 4.Rock Hero