Who will win the 2013 Melbourne Cup? It’s the question you need an answer to, and we’ve previewed each horse in detail with tips and predictions for the race that stops a nation.

Q: What time is the Melbourne Cup 2013? The Melbourne Cup will be run at 3.00pm AEDT.

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Looking for live updates of the lead-up to the race? Join us at our 2013 Melbourne Cup live blog with results here.

Roar Racing Editor Justin Cinque has also previewed the 2013 Melbourne Cup in full. Read his preview and top tips here.

2013 Melbourne Cup: The guide to finding a winner, and beating the myths

2013 Melbourne Cup: Wet or dry for the Cup? How the weather affects your horse’s chances

Full 2013 Melbourne Cup preview

1. Dunaden (Trainer: Mikel Delzangles (France), Jockey: Jamie Spencer, Barrier: 1, Weight: 58.5kg, $41)
Coming down to Melbourne for his third Melbourne Cup assault, this will be the worst he has looked in all the trips.

He won the 2011 Melbourne Cup after excellent European form which saw him take out the lead-up Geelong Cup with 54.5kg on his back.

He then took his second tilt last year where he won the Caulfield Cup carrying top weight and was then further allotted weight in the Melbourne Cup. He ultimately found 59kg too much to carry over two miles and finished 14th.

This year he must carry 58.5kg, but his form leading into the Cup has been much better in his past two campaigns. In Europe this season, he has not won a race and has been comprehensively beaten in the Group 2 Prix Foy.

Before that, he ran second in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Cloud, but the margin flattered him because he was never a winning chance.

Barrier 1 is not ideal for Dunaden because he runs best in open space. From the inside gate, he will get cramped for room in running and either over-race or fail to settle.

Although he has been racing against Europe’s best middle-distance horses, and is a very good horse when on song, he has not done enough to show he will be able to handle the large handicap imposed here.

2. Green Moon (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Brett Prebble, Barrier: 10, Weight: 57.5kg, $41)
Last year’s winner will have to carry 3.5kg more this year and his form has been much worse in comparison. His campaign was slightly derailed when he missed the Caulfield Stakes due to a high temperature.

The problem for Green Moon is he hasn’t won or looked like a winner all season. Compare him to last year when he won the Turnbull Stakes on his way to Cup success.

However last year, he also put in a shocker in the Cox Plate as the favourite, which forced a drift in his Cup price. This year, he once again put in an average run in the Cox Plate but even if we ignore that, there is too much going against him.

He’ll have no problem running out the distance but he’ll start feeling the weight around the 200m mark. He’s had his time and running here is more a strategic move than a realistic one.

3. Red Cadeaux (Trainer: Ed Dunlop (England), Jockey: Gerald Mosse, Barrier: 23, Weight: 56.5kg, $67)
Venturing to Flemington for his third attempt at the Melbourne Cup, it’s hard to see Red Cadeaux improving on 2011, when he ran second behind Dunaden by the smallest of margins in Melbourne Cup history.

He ran eighth in the 2012 Cup after getting shuffled a long way back and finding the pace unsuitable. It was forgiven a month later when he jetted to Hong Kong and won the prestigious Group 1 Hong Kong Vase, defeating Dunaden in the process.

From there it was off to Dubai for a shot at the world’s richest race, the Dubai Gold Cup. The 2000m was expected to be too short but Ed Dunlop’s globetrotting gelding ran out of his skin to place a very impressive second.

Next stop was Singapore for the Group 1 SIA Cup, where the golden run ended. His runs in the SIA Cup, Prince of Wales Stakes and King George Stake were disappointing.

All was thought to be lost in Red Cadeaux and it looked as if his career was approaching its end. The flights had finally taken their toll on him, but Dunlop took one last roll of the dice in the Group 2 Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

He needed to run well in that to keep his career alive and he did just that. Producing a dashing run while carrying top weight over 2700m, he finished a gallant second behind Royal Empire and, more importantly, showed he still had his turn of foot.

From there it was off to the Irish St Leger where he put in another good effort to finish fourth behind Voleuse De Coeurs. That was enough to justify coming back to Australia for a third time.

It’s hard to predict which Red Cadeaux will turn up, because his lead-up form in 2011 was average yet he finished second. In 2012, his lead-up form was excellent yet he finished eighth.

This year, his form is better than 2011 but not as good as 2012.

He has to carry 56.5kg this year, which is 1kg more than he carried in 2012 and 3kg more than he carried in 2011. He’s a wonderful horse who has collected more stamps in his passport than you or I, but it’s too hard to see him winning this.

4. Sea Moon (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Steven Arnold, Barrier: 7, Weight: 56.5kg, $15)
Sea Moon is Lloyd Williams’ best Melbourne Cup chance, but not by much. Sea Moon has never won a Group 1 race, yet will carry 56.5kg while others who have won Group 1s will carry much less.

This goes to show how good Sea Moon’s rating is. He has run among Europe’s best, but the performance of his career came in the 2011 Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2400m.

In that race, he defeated Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Jakkalberry and Fiorente. All four went on to run places in a Melbourne Cup.

In the run before that, he beat Dandino in the Listed Tapster Stakes.

It’s taken a while for Robert Hickmott and Williams to get the best out of Sea Moon in Australia, but we’ve finally seen it. Carrying top weight, he won the Bart Cummings Stakes but lost on protest. He then won the Herbert Power Stakes ahead of Simenon.

Sea Moon has never run over two miles, but it should be no concern. He started his campaign in Australia the Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m and looked terrible.

Since then, they have increased the distance of his races and he has improved with every run to suggest he’ll relish the two miles here.

Sea Moon is one of the main players.

5. Brown Panther (Trainer: Tom Dascombe (England), Jockey: Robert Kingscote, Barrier: 6, Weight: 55kg, $19)
Brown Panther’s Melbourne Cup preparation has not been ideal after the Michel Owen-owned stayer developed a high temperature in the lead up to the Irish St Leger – supposed to be his final run before coming to Australia.

An important advantage Brown Panther has is that he is already a winner over 3200m, which few others in this field are.

Back in August, he won the Group 2 Goodwood Cup over 3200m in a race where Cavalryman finished sixth and Mount Athos finished eighth.

In the past 12 months he’s only had three runs, but last year he was one of the best horses in Europe. He appears to have rediscovered his best form and is proven over this distance.

Jockey Robert Kingscote flies in from England for the ride, but a lack of experience and understanding of Australian racing is a minor problem.

Brown Panther produced his best in the Goodwood Cup so if you give Mount Athos any chance in this race, you have to give Brown Panther one too.

6. Fiorente (Trainer: Gai Waterhouse, Jockey: Damien Oliver, Barrier: 5, Weight: 55kg, $7)
Set to start as the favourite, last year’s runner-up has spent 12 months preparing for this. His preparation has been flawless with everything going to Gai Waterhouse’s plans.

In the history of the Melbourne Cup, only three horses have won in the year after they ran second, so history is strongly against Fiorente here.

He won the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes with a burst of speed normally only seen in sprinting horses. He then went to the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, where he sustained a long run which was quite similar to what he did in the Melbourne Cup last year.

Although he finished an unlucky fourth, he showed he still had the stamina required.

Then, Fiorente jumped to the top of Melbourne Cup markets after an outstanding run in the Cox Plate where he had to overcome the widest barrier. Still, he made up excellent ground and finished third and should not have lost any admirers.

Damien Oliver will be the third jockey to ride Fiorente in as many starts. This shouldn’t be a worry though, as Oliver has been doing all the track work and is a Melbourne Cup specialist.

Fiorente is the deserved Melbourne Cup favourite and despite history being against, he has done everything right this preparation to deserve favouritism.

7. Foreteller (Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Craig Newitt, Barrier: 15, Weight: 55kg, $34)
Since the start of the season, trainer Chris Waller had been telling us Foreteller was heading toward the Mackinnon Stakes as his grand final. But this horse has improved out of sight, despite being a seven-year-old.

It started when he won the Makybe Diva Stakes, beating Puissance De Lune. He then went to the Underwood Stakes where the pace of the race didn’t suit, before he proved he was so much more than an autumn horse at the Caulfield Stakes.

He kept Atlantic Jewel honest to run second to the mare, but comfortably beat Super Cool.

Waller then surprised us all by accepting Foreteller for the Cox Plate. No one gave him a chance but he produced an outstanding run to finish fourth.

Foreteller’s best distance is 2000m. Beyond that, he has not looked comfortable. Foreteller is a middle distance horse which is confirmed by his pedigree.

Two miles appears beyond him, but he’s in such good form that he’ll still finish into the first half of the field.

8. Dandino (Trainer: Marco Botti (England), Jockey: Ryan Moore, Barrier: 4, Weight: 54.5kg, $11)
After running second in the Caulfield Cup, the Marco Botti trained stayer has not put a foot wrong on our shores.

His campaign started back in June when he ran second in the Hardwicke Stacks which has been an excellent form race for the Melbourne Cup.

Both Dunaden and Red Cadeaux came through the Hardwicke Stakes run at Royal Ascot in the year they came to Australia and ran first and second.

After Royal Ascot, he went to America and took out the US St Leger en route to Australia. It is the exact same campaign his stablemate Jakkalberry took last year, however Dandino may be the better of the two.

Jakkalberry failed to fire a shot in his Caulfield Cup run before bouncing back to run third in last year’s Melbourne Cup.

Dandino however has never run two miles and straight after the Caulfield Cup, Craig Williams said the added distance will really test Dandino.

Nevertheless, if things go right and the pace is not too hot, Dandino has what it take to be right there at the end.

9. Ethiopia (Trainer: Pat Carey, Jockey: Rhys McLeod, Barrier: 14, Weight: 54.5kg, $81)
This horse had just about the worst preparation for any Melbourne Cup bound horse. Or at least it was, up until Saturday when he ran in the Lexus Stakes.

He was already qualified for the Cup but based on his form before the Lexus, there was no chance of him running in the Cup.

But Pat Carey has peaked his horse at the absolute perfect time. Prior to the Lexus, there was daylight between Ethiopia and the winner so every single run can be ignored based on what we saw in the Lexus.

Carrying top weight, he looked flat and like a horse who didn’t want to race. But in the wide open plains of Flemington, when they came into the straight, he balanced up and finally showed some of his best form by making up plenty of ground.

Although he finished fourth, it was still an outstanding run for a horse that never looked in the race and had done nothing all season.

Ethiopia has only ever won one race and that was the ATC Derby which qualified him for the Melbourne Cup. He doesn’t have any winning form which is something Melbourne Cup winners have coming into the race.

His run in the Lexus may have been outstanding but the quality of opposition was not, because the race was run in a time considerably slower than the Lexus normally is. He was last in 2012, after suffering an injury in the run. He won’t win this year.

10. Fawkner (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Nick Hall, Barrier: 8, Weight: 54.5kg, $19)
The Caulfield Cup winner enters the Melbourne Cup without a run in between. The last horse to pull off the Cups double was Ethereal in 2001.

Unfortunately for Fawkner, he did not win a particular strong running of the Caulfield Cup and we’ve seen others win it with much more conviction in the past.

Owner Lloyd Williams has been on the record as saying the Caulfield Cup had always been Fawkner’s aim and the Melbourne Cup had not originally been in plans. Nevertheless, as a horse in form with ballot exemption, there is no reason not to run him.

Running two miles will be a big ask for Fawkner, who 12 months ago was a miler after running second in the Emirates Stakes. He just grinded though 2400m in the Caulfield Cup and was weakening towards the line.

Being by Reset and based on his Caulfield Cup run, it’s hard to see him running out a strong two miles.

11. Mourayan (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Brenton Avdulla, Barrier: 19, Weight: 54.5kg, $101)
This horse continually flies under the radar. He appreciates two miles and that’s where he has looked his most comfortable.

He ran seventh in last year’s Melbourne Cup which was a phenomenal effort, and he then came out in autumn to win the Sydney Cup over the two miles.

With the eight-year-old getting on in years, Lloyd Williams has managed Mourayan nicely with the Melbourne Cup being just his fourth run of the campaign. In the Makybe Diva Stakes and Metropolitan, Mourayan never got into his stride because the distances had been a touch too short.

But in the history of the Cup, only two eight-year-olds have won.

They decided to take him to the Mackinnon Stakes where they decided to ride him from the front. It was a new tactic for Mourayan, who probably doesn’t have the turn of foot to run from the back anymore.

It was an interesting tactic and one which they were testing for the Melbourne Cup. He travelled cleanly and going to the Melbourne Cup with that tactic is a defensive strategy for the Williams camp.

Mourayan won’t win the Melbourne Cup. He is in there as the pacemaker for Williams’ five other runners and will be available to give cover for others that get exposed.

And he has drawn the perfect gate for it, with all five other Williams runners on Mourayan’s inside.

12. Seville (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.5kg , $17)
Seville looked in great shape for this race last year until injury struck. He’s back and in excellent form despite finishing seventh in the Cox Plate.

Like most of Lloyd Williams’ horses, he was intent on winning the Cox Plate but still ran on nicely.

Before that, he won the Metropolitan Handicap – traditionally a bad form race for the Melbourne Cup – but Seville was a Melbourne horse who raided the race whereas the winner is normally a Sydney horse.

When that happens, the best Sydney horse can’t match it with Melbourne stayers and Seville proved that.

He’s been carrying big weights all season and with the Cup always his target, he’s been primed to run here with a reasonable weight. He has done his best Australian work here at Flemington, which best resembles the European surroundings.

It wouldn’t shock to see Seville win this but a place looks more likely.

13. Super Cool (Trainer: Mark Kavanagh, Jockey: Corey Brown, Barrier: 13, Weight: 54.5kg, $51)
One month ago, there was little-to-no chance Super Cool would be lining up in the Melbourne Cup. He has originally been primed for the Caulfield Cup but his form wasn’t great and the firm ground didn’t suit.

He then had his campaign turned towards the Cox Plate where he went around as an outsider because his form simply wasn’t good enough. Yet, up in class, he produced the best run of his campaign which is why Mark Kavanagh has bought him to the Melbourne Cup.

Corey Brown takes the ride for the same trainer-jockey combination what won the 2009 Melbourne Cup with Shocking.

Firm ground is expected on Tuesday which will not suit Super Cool, but that’s not the biggest concern.

Super Cool is by Fastnet Rock, a sprinting stallion. Asking a Fastnet Rock to run 3200m is the equivalent of asking Usain Bolt to run a marathon. He’s a good horse, but this is beyond Super Cool.

Assigned saddlecloth 13 and drawing barrier 13, it looks like he has used up all his luck.

14. Masked Marvel (Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: Michael Rodd, Barrier: 2, Weight: 54kg, $26)
Earlier in the season, Lloyd Williams flagged Masked Marvel the best Melbourne Cup chance among his arsenal of runners.

Masked Marvel won the Group 1 English St Leger over 2900m before he was imported by Williams and distance will be absolutely no problem for him.

He began his season in promising style and ran poorly in the Cox Plate, but don’t be disheartened – he had absolutely no intent on winning the race. He’s been running well at weight-for-age level and drops down to handicap conditions for the Cup.

Williams have played the handicapper like a fool here. He’s been primed for this run and we will finally see the same Masked Marvel that won a St Leger so must be considered a live chance.

He probably won’t win, but a place is possible.

15. Mount Athos (Trainer: Luca Cumani (England), Jockey: Craig Williams, Barrier: 22, Weight: 54kg, $10)
Luca Cumani returns again with Mount Athos after running fifth last year with what many consider the best run of the race.

That was largely due to the ride by Ryan Moore, where his lack of experience in Australia cost Mount Athos the race. With Craig Williams booked for the ride, the issue should not arise again.

Mount Athos’ form has not been as consistent as it was last year but it has still been excellent. Cumani has carefully selected Mount Athos’ path for the past 12 months to ensure the Montjeu gelding did not get any major weight penalties but still stayed fit.

At Royal Ascot, he put produced a shocker in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2400m where he never got into the race. On that occasion he finished three lengths behind Dandino when they met at equal weights.

Mount Athos then went to the Goodwood Cup which was won by Brown Panther. Mount Athos finished eight, seven lengths behind Brown Panther and they both carried equal weight.

By that point, things were looking terrible and there was no way Mount Athos could win a Melbourne Cup. But fortunately for Cumani, he gave Mount Athos one last chance to prove he was worth bringing back to Australia and it proved a masterstroke.

They went to the March Stakes where Mount Athos carried top weight in a descent field to finish a head behind the winner, Harris Tweed. They key factor was he showed he still had his turn of foot and it was enough to buy a ticket for Melbourne.

Drawing barrier 22 was a disaster for owner Marwin Koukash, who has no one else to blame but himself for drawing the gate. Mount Athos has the ability to run on from the back, but the wide gate is still a mammoth hindrance.

Mount Athos was in more consistent form last year but his last run was as good as anything he produced 12 months ago. The distance will be fine and he has an excellent jockey on board.

He’s a winning chance and should be right there at the end with a very manageable weight for a stayer of his calibre if Williams doesn’t let him get too far back.

16. Royal Empire (Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor (England), Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, Barrier: 11, Weight: 54kg, $21)
Global racing powerhouse Godolphin has sent just one entrant this year, where they have previously sent two or more. They think very highly of this Teofilo entire, who has been in excellent form in Europe for the past few months.

He last ran in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 2400m where he carried top weight and was beaten by stablemate Lucky Number, to whom he was conceding 7kg. Prior to that, he was beaten by a head in the Group 3 September Stakes.

His last win came in August where he defeated Red Cadeaux in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, but had a considerable weight advantage which is compacted here.

Royal Empire is yet to run over the two miles, but he is also yet to run at Group 1 level in Europe. He has been managed superbly with a program that has him primed for this without gathering any major weight penalties.

He’s travelled between Dubai and England a few times and the Godolphin horses are generally excellent travellers. On top of that, Royal Empire has drawn perfectly in barrier 11.

Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor spoke very highly of this horse and specifically chose him because he has the turn of foot required to win in Australia.

He’s one of the major chances and could deliver Godolphin their first Melbourne Cup.

17. Voleuse De Coeurs (Trainer: Michael Moroney, Jockey: James McDonald, Barrier: 21, Weight: 54kg, $17)
This mare wasn’t coming to Australia until a last minute deal right on the edge of quarantine’s closure saw her sold to Australian interests.

Purchased for $1.7 million on the back of a dominant Irish St Leger win – where she got up by six lengths – the form out of that race has been very strong.

Transferred from Dermot Weld (who knew how to train a Melbourne Cup winner) to Mike Moroney, Voleuse De Coeurs should have no problem running the two miles.

Moroney, however, dropped a very interesting comment a few weeks ago, saying Voleuse De Coeurs may still be on the young side and that if she can’t score this year, she’d be even better primed for it next year.

That shows a lack of absolute confidence and you can make what you will of it, but a lot of Irish St Leger winners have come to the Melbourne Cup and failed to reproduce the form.

18. Hawkspur (Trainer: Chris Waller, Jockey: Jim Cassidy, Barrier: 18, Weight: 53.5kg, $13)
Despite jumping as the favourite in both the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup, Hawkspur has been luckless in running and failed to deliver on his potential. Without winning, his runs have been quite good but he is under the odds on the markets.

In both the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup, he was taken to the back of the field by Jim Cassidy who produced two average rides.

On both occasions, he waited too long to make his move which cost Hawkspur any chance of winning. However, he did hit the line hard in both runs to finish fifth and eighth respectively.

As a Derby winner, the distance shouldn’t be a concern. Chris Waller appears committed to riding Hawkspur off the speed, but Cassidy needs to take some risks to ride Hawkspur into the race rather than coasting on the inside rail and hoping for luck.

He’s drawn the worst barrier in the history of the Cup because no horse has ever won from gate 18.

If he doesn’t get too far back in the field, Hawkspur is a winning chance.

19. Simenon (Trainer: Willie Mullins (Ireland), Jockey: Richard Hughes, Barrier: 12, Weight: 53.5kg, $21)
There were talks of bringing Simenon over for last year’s Melbourne Cup, but Willie Haggas held off and it has been a great move.

Simenon has been in excellent form over the past few months. At Royal Ascot, he ran second in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4000m after winning the race in 2012. It’s fair to say he is horse racing’s equivalent of Kenyan marathon runners.

He ran next in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 3300m where he finished second, though he was given a shocking ride and really should have won.

When the Melbourne Cup comes around, the biggest query facing a lot of runners is whether they have the stamina to run out a strong 3200m. There is probably no horse in this field more capable of covering this distance, but it may even be too short for him.

Since arriving in Australia, he has had one run in the Herbert Power Stakes where he finished an impressive second behind Sea Moon.

Not much was expected of him over 2400m but his run was much better than most imagined it would be. It was enough to show that Simenon has had no problem adapting to the Australian turf.

He’s got the stamina to grind this field down and will be best suited to a quick tempo. As long as it does not become a mad dash to the finish like it did last year, Simenon is weighted well enough to run a big race.

20. Ibicenco (Trainer: Peter Moody, Jockey: Luke Nolan, Barrier: 17, Weight: 53kg, $81)
Making the field as the 24th horse in the order of entry, Peter Moody’s decision not to run Ibicenco on Derby Day has paid off with attrition getting him into the final field.

The import failed to make the field for the Melbourne Cup last year and had to settle for a run in the Sandown Cup, where he scored with ease – albeit against a very weak field.

The benefit of that was it proved the dour stayer could run out two miles despite a change in racing styles between Australia and Europe.

Prior to his run in the Geelong Cup, Ibicenco hadn’t done too much to suggest he deserves a spot in the Melbourne Cup final field. Although the Geelong Cup appears to be a good form race for the Melbourne Cup, this year’s edition was extremely weak.

Ibicenco has used up all his luck by merely getting into the final field and he’s too dour to threaten anything besides seagulls on the track.

21. Verema (Trainer: Alain De Royer-Dupre (France), Jockey: Christophe Lemaire, Barrier: 3, Weight: 53kg, $13)
The Aga Khan will have his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and Alain De Royer-Dupre returns again after bringing Americain the past two years.

Verema is a last start winner after taking out the Group 2 Prix Kergolay – a fantastic form race over the past few years.

Americain won the Kergolay on his way to Melbourne Cup success in 2010 and Jukebox Jury won the race before winning the Irish St Leger in 2011.

Christophe Lemaire flies in for the ride and the last time the Frenchman was at Flemington, he won the Melbourne Cup aboard Dunaden.

Verema is a proven traveller after going to Dubai for the World Cup meet, where she ran third in the Dubai Gold Cup over 3200m. She finished behind Cavalryman that day, but it showed that she travels well and can run a strong two miles which is exactly what has flawed raiders in the past.

Cavalryman finished 12th in last year’s Cup so there are a few question marks about the strength of Verema’s form.

She has a small chance of winning and should be included in trifectas, but asking a mare to step off the plane and run a strong two miles seems a big ask.

22. Dear Demi (Trainer: Clarry Conners, Jockey: Chris Munce, Barrier: 16, Weight: 51kg, $21)
Dear Demi has completely flown under the radar this season because she has crept up on the inside rail in all of her runs.

When she went to the Underwood, she ran third behind It’s A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel at weight-for-age level. With all the attention given to the first two past the post, more was made of the race pace than the excellent run by Dear Demi.

No one gave her a chance in the Caulfield Cup where she drew a terribly wide gate and still rocketed home, once again on the rail, to finish third.

On Saturday, she had her final warm-up run in the Mackinnon Stakes and was outstanding. Again, she crept up along the rail and was closing on the eventual winner Side Glance with every stride.

Dear Demi comes into this with a winning weight and she has not put a hoof wrong all season. Owner John Singleton unloaded on Dear Demi to win the Melbourne Cup after her Caulfield Cup run and punters have followed suit.

The biggest query on her is whether she can run two miles. A lot of people seem to have forgotten that she won the VRC Oaks last year.

The Oaks has not been a great form race for the Melbourne Cup in the past, but it shows she had staying prowess. She is a genuine winning chance.

23. Tres Blue (Trainer: Gai Waterhouse, Jockey: Tommy Berry, Barrier: 20, Weight: 51kg, $25)
Although he will be listed in form guides as a four-year-old by Southern Hemisphere standards, Tres Blue is in fact a three-year-old colt having his seventh career start in the Melbourne Cup.

Joining the Waterhouse stable, Tres Blue arrives off the back of two nice wins in France.

In August, the colt by Anabaa Blue won the Group 3 De Reux Group Stakes over 2500m against some average opposition.

He then went into the Grand Prix De Deauville a few weeks later over 2500m again, under set weights and penalty conditions. As he was yet to win at Group 1 or 2 level, he was given a very light weight, beating home Cirrus Des Aigles in the process.

The run was good and he took full advantage of his light weight, which is something he’ll need to do here.

Asking a three-year-old to run 3200m is a huge ask and one which may prove too much for the colt. He may only be carrying 51kg but even so, there will be plenty of more conditioned horses carrying only slightly more.

He’ll have a much better chance in future Melbourne Cups when he matures more.

24. Ruscello (Trainer: Ed Walker (England), Jockey: Chad Schofield, Barrier: 24, Weight: 50kg, $50)
A great story here, with English trainer Ed Walker a one-time apprentice to Luca Cumani. Walker saddled up Ruscello, who was the first horse he’d bought to Australia in his short training career, and took out the Lexus Stakes on Saturday.

History could potentially repeat itself here because in 2000, Brew won the Lexus Stakes which got him into the Melbourne Cup.

On that occasion, he too carried saddlecloth 24 and drew barrier 24 (came into 22 with scratchings) and went on to win the Melbourne Cup. Brew carried 1kg less than Ruscello will here though.

Walker did not want to bring Ruscello to the Melbourne Cup for fear it would be too much too soon for the four-year-old.

But owned by OTI Racing who targets the Melbourne Cup with European purchases, Simon O’Donnell made the call to back Ruscello up three days later for the Cup.

Very few jockeys can ride at the 50kg weight – the lowest weight in the field. With Jet Away failing to make the final field, Glen Boss became available and OTI asked him to take the ride.

Boss turned it down, saying he did not feel Ruscello is a genuine chance of winning, but they didn’t lose too much when they booked Cox Plate winning jockey Chad Schofield for the ride.

Ruscello may not have won a strong Lexus but he is carrying nothing on his back. His European form is nothing to boast about, but history says he will run a big race having won the Lexus.

His run in the Lexus was an all-the-way performance which won’t be possible in the Melbourne Cup, and he doesn’t have the turn of foot to be a serious contender over two miles.

Alfred Chan’s Top Four Tips
1. Royal Empire
2. Sea Moon
3. Dear Demi
4. Seville

Best of the rest: Fiorente, Simenon, Tres Blue, Hawkspur

My price ratings for each horse (market operating at 100%)
1. Dunaden – $61.73
2. Green Moon – $36.76
3. Red Cadeaux – $222.22
4. Sea Moon – $13.50
5. Brown Panther – $17.12
6. Fiorente – $12.20
7. Foreteller – $32.89
8. Dandino – $20.08
9. Ethiopia – $44.84
10. Fawkner – $24.04
11. Mourayan – $384.62
12. Seville – $19.61
13. Super Cool – $48.08
14. Masked Marvel – $30.40
15. Mount Athos – $19.12
16. Royal Empire – $14.49
17. Voleuse De Couers – $16.69
18. Hawkspur – $17.64
19. Simenon – $19.38
20. Ibicenco – $68.49
21. Verema – $16.92
22. Dear Demi – $15.70
23. Tres Blue – $22.32
24. Ruscello – $68.97

[roar_cat_gal]