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With the second rest day now behind us, the 2014 Giro d’Italia continues with a flat 173 kilometre stage from Modena to Salsomaggiore Terme. Join The Roar for live updates and discussion of all the race action from 10:30pm AEST.
The battle for the maglia rosa of the Points Classification should be fierce today, with a maximum of 70 points available out on course via the intermediate sprint and stage finish.
The contenders for the maglia rosa may even be interested in keeping the breakaway on a tighter leash than usual with the intermediate sprint located just 60 kilometres into the stage.
For any sprinters planning on withdrawing before the high mountains of the third week, today is the penultimate chance they have to claim victory. Given the almost pizza-pan flat parcours, the sprinters’ teams should have little issue controlling the breakaway should they so desire.
Concerning for the sprinters will be the presence of a small climb and descent under 10 kilometres from the finishing line. Thanks to the fast, technical nature of the approach to the finishing line, there could be a launch pad for a late attack with just five kilometres remaining.
Should such an event occur, the sprinters’ teams cannot afford to try passing the buck between each other to avoid the responsibility of leading the chase. Any signs of disorganisation within the peloton and the odds will begin to favour a small, nimble breakaway composed of Rouleurs.
Avoid the mistake of underestimating the climb by basing your assumptions solely on the altitude measurements available on the official stage profile – the climb will be harder than you might expect.
Regardless, I would still expect one of the sprinters to take the stage victory 99 times out of 100, but that still leaves a 1 in 100 chance of the breakaway spoiling the party.
Given his two stage victories and lack of fear in barging his way around the peloton to get where he wants to be, Nacer Bouhanni of FDJ is the favourite for today’s stage. The Frenchman will face stiff competition from Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani should the lead outs of either Italian sprinter manage to remain cohesive and complete the tasks required of them.
The cat among the pigeons will be Luka Mezgec, with the Giant Shimano sprint train a great leveller of the playing field. What the Slovenian sprinter potentially lacks in raw top speed up against the likes of Bouhanni he can compensate for with better positioning going in to the sprint for the line.
Ben Swift of Team Sky should not be discounted, nor should his teammates. Edvald Boasson Hagen in particular as his last man gave him a lead out similar to Stage 2.
If the unexpected does happen and a breakaway does escape to the finishing line off the back of an attack over the climb, I would expect strongmen similar to Luca Paolini or Adam Hansen to be the ones to succeed.
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