Wildcard weekend came and went with the only real shock being just how badly Arizona played.
And with late scratchings to his top two receiving targets AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham – not to mention the early-game loss of linebacker Rey Maualuga – a competent-at-best Andy Dalton never stood a chance at getting Cincinnati over the line against the Colts.
For Pittsburgh the loss of Le’Veon Bell left the Steelers relying on their passing attack – the same attack that saw Big Ben drop six touchdowns on Baltimore last time they met.
This time, however, it was a different story, with the Pittsburgh offence harried and picked apart in a ferocious effort from the Baltimore defence, who recorded five sacks.
Meanwhile, Detroit started strong against Dallas but wilted late amid some passive fourth down coaching and a very dubious bit of officiating, depending on who you ask.
Let’s now look ahead to the divisional round in ascending interest.
Carolina Panthers (4) versus Seattle Seahawks (1) – 12.15pm, Saturday
Yawn. Watching the Arizona and Carolina game was like being slowly waxed while deciding what is more disappointing – never taking off, or exploding mid-air. Like the Virgin space program, Carolina have stumbled into mild success but are ultimately flawed.
They unconvincingly got into the playoffs by being the least disappointing team in their division, and it took a lot of trying to beat an Arizona team led by a third string quarterback. Cam Newton’s body is held together with football pads, and no amount of great play by star line backers will undo the devastation Seattle’s defence will unleash.
If Carolina breaks into double digits I’ll be surprised. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have this one covered, and it could be a nasty blowout.
Indianapolis Colts (4) versus Denver Broncos (2) – 8.40am, Sunday
The win for Indianapolis will see them going to Denver, with the heir apparent (and his beard), Andrew Luck, facing the man he ousted from Indianapolis three seasons ago, Peyton Manning. With an increased emphasis on pounding the ball, Denver’s rushing offence will likely have some success against the 19th ranked Indianapolis run defence (regular season), with this action opening up all sorts of options for Peyton’s six-shooter (let’s be honest, it’s not really a cannon any more).
Cincinnati brought almost no pressure in the wildcard round, and Andrew Luck can expect much more pressure from Denver’s Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Luck will do his best, and if TY Hilton drops fewer passes it might almost be a game, but Denver ought to have this one in the bag.
Dallas Cowboys (3) versus Green Bay Packers (2) – 5.05am, Sunday. Baltimore Ravens (6) versus New England Patriots – 8.35am, Saturday
It’s hard to pick my favourite match-up here, and the tragedy of both these games being on early in the morning means I’ll be bleary-eyed and unable to enjoy them with salty snacks and beers without feeling like a complete reprobate.
The Cowboys came alive with some bold fourth down play calls and needed a bit of luck to get past Detroit, but expect the NFL’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray to outdo his performance in the wildcard round this week. No longer facing Detroit’s first ranked run defence (regular season), Green Bay’s 24th ranked run defence will need to have a strong game against Dallas’ dominant front line.
Detroit showed a range of unusual blitzes to bring pressure on Romo, but these were only possible thanks to their success in shutting down the run. Expect Green Bay to try the same on obvious passing downs, but if Dallas have success pounding the rock, this could be a long game from the Pack’s defence.
Then again, Aaron Rodgers.
In the past two years at Lambeau he has thrown zero intercepts and 31 touchdowns in 360 pass attempts. While his calf is questionable, if Rodgers stays healthy for the game and gets time in the pocket, odds are Green Bay’s number one ranked offence (regular season) is raining down some touchdowns. If the Packers can get out to an early lead it will likely force Dallas to pass more, offering the Packers the chance to bring pressure and limit Murray’s impact on the game.
Fun stat you’ll hear 100 times: this season Green Bay is 8-0 at home, Dallas is 8-0 on the road.
The tactic to beat New England, like any precision passing offence, is to disrupt the rhythm of the short to mid-range passing game. On the road at New England, Baltimore will try to jam receivers, get physical with Rob Gronkowski, and pressure Tom Brady as much as possible. The Baltimore pass rush set up camp in the backfield against Pittsburgh and will look to do the same here, while the Patriots will likely run an up-tempo and balanced offence to keep any defensive look they like out on the field and exploit them as they fatigue.
Joe Flacco, king of the playoffs, is a hard one to pin down, but his continued big game success makes him difficult to bet against. Torrey Smith will draw at least one long pass interference call, and it is unlikely running back Justin Forsett mails in two stinkers in a row.
New England has regular season dominance on its side, and Baltimore’s wildcard win might be just a flash in the pan – but I’d be nervous as a Pats fan. Then again, the Gronk is a beast, New England’s defence is good enough, and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are arguably the most intimidating and clinical coach-quarterback coupling you’ll find.
I’ll take Green Bay and the Patriots, but I’m scared of Baltimore.
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