A Super Bowl berth is on the line this weekend, with the remaining four teams in the NFL squaring off in the Championship Round.
Let’s take a look at the upcoming games and try to anticipate what to expect from the teams with one eye already on the Lombardi Trophy.
Indianapolis @New England, Monday 10.40am AU
Storylines
The big upset of the divisional round was the Colts knocking off the Denver Broncos, something that might well herald the end of the Peyton Manning era as we know it. The ascension of Andrew Luck to the top of the quarterback hierarchy could take another step this week with a win over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
Of course, Brady has no less on the line, with his early career success a distant memory. Two close Super Bowl losses against the New York Giants are the most recent wounds for him to nurse. While his Hall of Fame resume is already well rounded, another Super Bowl appearance would further cement the legend of Brady–and Belichick.
What happened last time?
Around this time last year the Patriots faced off against the Colts and steamrolled them 43-22 on the back of LaGarrette Blount’s 4 TDs and 166 yards, including a massive 73-yard touchdownrun.
This laid the groundwork for the next match up in November where the Patriots employed a similar tactic to a remarkably similar outcome, but with the then-unknown Jonas Gray doing the hard work and exploding into the limelight with 4 TDs and 201 yards en route to a 42-20 Patriots victory (before oversleeping to be late for practice and not seeing a touch the next week).
What should we expect?
Since rebuilding around Andrew Luck, the Colts have had a tendency to rely on his singular brilliance to win close games. At last it appears that there is some talent developing around him.
On the weekend the Colts played one of their most complete team games to beat Denver. Andrew Luck was good, but not brilliant, and was well supported by a stout offensive line, the success of which allowed the Colts to split out more receivers to amplify the downfield threats.
Watching New England’s ineffective pass rush against Baltimore, this might crop up again on the weekend on passing downs. The defence also had a solid outing, led by cornerback Vontae Davis.
The New England tactic is to take away the opposing team’s strength and then pick at their weakness, hoping this combination will unravel their opponent.
In the divisional round against Baltimore this saw them abandon the run to avoid the dominant Baltimore run defence, and work quick throws against an overmatched secondary to give the Raven’s pass rush no time to get into the backfield.
For Indianapolis their strength is still Andrew Luck, and the reason the Patriots have looked to run the ball so much is because it eats up clock, which keeps Luck off the field. It also happens to coincide with the Colts’ 18th ranked run defence, thus rather elegantly neutralising their strength while exposing a weakness at the same time.
In the more recent games the Patriots even introduced an extra lineman to really work the line of scrimmage and create holes.
The Patriots also had success against the Ravens picking off two deep balls to Torrey Smith, and I would not be surprised to see them try to employ similar deep ball-hawking tactics on TY Hilton.
The Ravens showed that a high-powered passing offense can still give the Patriots’ improved D fits, and will lean on Luck to wreak similar havoc. Their newfound running game with Boom Herron has been surprising, and taken some of the strain off Luck. Leaning on this, it might well end up with the Colts using New England’s strategy to chew up clock and neutralise the Patriots strength – Brady.
It promises to be an interesting battle, but I think the Patriots might have the class (and the coach) to win this one. That said, the Colts are rising.
Green Bay @Seattle, Monday 7.05am AU
Storylines
Seattle is looking to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner in 10 years. And Green Bay is of course seeking to replicate their Super Bowl success from 2010, Rodgers’ MVP season.
This is another chance for Russell Wilson to cement his case for moving from the 61st paid quarterback ($662,434) into the realms of the big boys at around $20m a year. With two years of post season success under his belt, he is sowing the seeds for a formidable big game reputation and legacy.
What happened last time?
Last time these two teams met was in September this year in the NFL season opener, with the Seahawks exhibiting a balanced attack and going on to win 36-16. Marshawn Lynch ran home two TDs on 110 yards, and Russell Wilson added two more. Rodgers was held to 189 yards and 1 TD.
So what has changed since then?
For one, the Green Bay offense that refused to throw at Richard Sherman subsequently went on to become the NFL’s top ranked offense, with Rodgers putting in an MVP-worthy season. And Green Bay’s offensive line has been strengthened with Brian Bulaga back at full health after missing the 2013 season with an ACL tear.
However, like that round 1 match up, this game will be played at CenturyLink Field, where Seattle have been nigh on unstoppable. The Seahawks have also won 10 of their past 11, with the last eight wins all by double digits.
What should we expect?
Marshawn Lynch and co. were held by the Panthers to 100 yards on 28 carries. The Panthers successfully committed to stopping the run but got burnt by Wilson’s arm. This came on some truly amazing third down play, with Wilson going 8-of-8 for 199 and 3 TDs. Taking nothing away from Wilson, those are some incredible numbers, but it is unlikely he will be that effective again, even against Green Bay’s 23rd ranked pass defence.
On defence the Seahawks did not really suffocate the Panthers nearly as much as I was expecting. Grantland’s Bill Barnwell notes, however, that this was largely due to Carolina exploiting back up cornerback Tharold Simon, with usual corner Byron Maxwell sick.
On the left side of the field where Simon was defending, Newton went 16-of-21 for 169 yards and 2 TDs for a QBR of 94.3. His QBR on the rest of his throws? 0.3.
With Maxwell expected to play this week, those easy options dry up.
That Seattle D is still pretty terrifying.
Green Bay meanwhile have their hopes pretty much resting on Aaron Rodgers, whose gimpy calf essentially carries this game. In the first half of the Green Bay-Dallas game Rodgers looked wounded and very mortal, with his game echoing his physical discomfort.
By some miracle cure he was back to his usual clinical ways in the second half, dragging his team to victory. Pain killers, PEDs, or just more comfortable with his limitations – whatever it was needs to happen again for the Packers to even have a shot at this game.
Rodgers got over the line at Lambeau where he has been as unstoppable as the Seahawks at CenturyLink. Unfortunately for Green Bay, this game is on Seattle turf, and that Seattle D will seize on any weakness. Seahawks for the win.
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