I know who is going to win the Melbourne Cup

Greg Prichard Columnist

By Greg Prichard, Greg Prichard is a Roar Expert

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    Scottish has been ruled out of the 2016 Melbourne Cup. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)

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    UPDATE: So Scottish has been scratched, but I’m sticking by my number 2 selection.

    Big Orange to actually run and get up!

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    An early tip is a good tip, or at least I hope. Here are mine:
    1. Scottish
    1. Big Orange
    2. Hartnell

    Original article:

    After watching the replay of the Caulfield Cup so many times I know the race-caller’s description off by heart, I’ve got the Melbourne Cup winner for you – Scottish.

    A week ahead of time, too. You can thank me later.

    Seriously though, Scottish’s run in that race was phenomenal. I’ve seen all the lead-up races to the big one on the first Tuesday in November and that was the best cup trial.

    Do yourself a favour if you haven’t had a close look yourself yet and check out a replay. It’s hard to believe Scottish was able to run second when you consider the huge amount of work he had to do in the race.

    Scottish was slow out of the barriers and as he tried to make up a little ground down the straight the first time he got squeezed sideways towards the fence, at which point he started throwing his head about.

    His jockey, Kerrin McEvoy, decided the best option from there was to let the horse go forward and Scottish went into the turn out of the straight fives horses wide.

    He had to be kept going to try to get around the field and at about the 1200-metre mark of the 2400-metre event he finally got to the lead and crossed to the fence.

    It was always going to be a big ask for Scottish to go on and win from there. Surely he was going to get worn out and drop back into the ruck at the finish. But, while he didn’t win, only one horse could get past him and that was the favourite, Jameka, who had enjoyed a charmed run by comparison.

    If there’s a worry with Scottish it’s the fact he hasn’t raced over 3200m before and if he wanted to go quicker in the Caulfield Cup will he have trouble settling in the Melbourne Cup.

    Scottish, prospective Melbourne Cup winner.

    Hopefully, his trainer and jockey can manage to guard against that.

    It makes sense that Hartnell is the favourite for the cup and Jameka the second favourite.

    Hartnell has been the outstanding horse of the spring apart from the incredible Winx, who, fortunately for the cup hopes, isn’t a 3200-metre horse.

    Included in Hartnell’s wins was a decisive one over Jameka in the Turnbull Stakes, after which Jameka went on to win the Caulfield Cup.

    Winx blew Hartnell away in just a few strides when they came to grips before the home turn in the WS Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last Saturday, but Hartnell did well to still hang on for second when he could’ve easily faded to finish behind the placegetters.

    But neither Hartnell nor Jameka has a strong grip on the cup and while this year’s edition of the race won’t be among the best we’ve seen in terms of the overall quality of the field, there are a number of genuine chances.

    Exospheric and Almoonqith each finished very strongly for third and fourth respectively in the Caulfield Cup. Their runs said they would be better suited over the longer distance of the Melbourne Cup and the bigger track at Flemington.

    Almandin is owned by Lloyd Williams, who has made an art form of finding potential Melbourne Cup winners to buy. The horse has taken a relatively low-key path towards the big race compared to some of the other runners mentioned here, but has still been very impressive.

    And British horse Big Orange is back as a five-year-old for another crack at the cup after running a splendid fifth last year, when he led. Big Orange will be much better off for that experience and he since has the form on the board in the UK.

    Other chances: Jameka, Almandin, Almoonqith, Exospheric.

    Why wait any longer for a Melbourne Cup tip?

    Greg Prichard
    Greg Prichard

    Greg Prichard has spent all of his working life in the media, from way back when journalists were still using typewriters. He has covered rugby league, football, AFL and various other sports for News Limited and Fairfax newspapers and also worked for magazines, radio and pay television. Twitter: @gregprichard

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    The Crowd Says (50)

    • October 25th 2016 @ 6:34pm
      Ross said | October 25th 2016 @ 6:34pm | ! Report

      I backed Scottish yesterday before reading this article. I certainly think it was the run of the race from the Caulfield Cup. However, some of the foreign contingent are not well known – Wicklow Brave, Beautiful Romance, Curren Mirotic, etc – and must be chances at good odds if they live up to their form overseas.

      By the way, whatever happened to the Mackinnon Stakes being a lead up to the Melbourne Cup? In the past it proved to be a useful guide. Now it’s been rescheduled to the last day. Are there enough suitable lead up races to the Cup?

      • Editor

        October 25th 2016 @ 11:30pm
        Tristan Rayner said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:30pm | ! Report

        I hope it was an all-in bet mate.

        Ps. The races are the same in distance. It’s only a name change. The Mackinnon (now Emirates) being used as a lead-up has dropped off a bit – plenty still run in the Lexus though. And Bendigo Cup tomorrow for a couple too.

    • October 25th 2016 @ 7:12pm
      Damon Pelham said | October 25th 2016 @ 7:12pm | ! Report

      Wonderful story on who will win the cup? Pity it isnt even running in it! Jameka was smoking the pipe when it one the Caulfield Cup and should start firm favourite. The forgotten horse of the cup is Currin Mirotc. Would of started favourite if it hadn’t of flopped over 2200, the cup is 3200 and it’s only two starts over the distance have been world class and in cracking times.
      1. Jameka
      2. Currin Mirotic
      3. Excess Knowledge

    • Roar Guru

      October 25th 2016 @ 8:02pm
      ScottWoodward.me said | October 25th 2016 @ 8:02pm | ! Report

      Hi Greg,
      Scottish was indeed a hot run and probably should have only been beaten by a length, cant believe that he kept going. With Winx now chickening out, Scottish would be crazy not to have a crack in the $2m Emirates instead of the Cup.

      Scottish, like Jameka and Hartnell need a slowly run Melb Cup like last year to have a hope, if the Cup is run at a genuine clip or crazy like 2014, then we need to find a strong 2 miler.

      • Editor

        October 25th 2016 @ 11:27pm
        Tristan Rayner said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:27pm | ! Report

        The pace is all important… and very hard to predict!

        Qewy will now get a start and can lead but doesn’t necessarily inject huge amount of pace. Better than no horse wanting the lead though.

    • Editor

      October 25th 2016 @ 11:24pm
      Tristan Rayner said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:24pm | ! Report

      Ah Greg. It’s a shame Scottish won’t run!

      With Winx heading to the paddock and out of some major races, Godolphin are putting Hauraki and Scottish into the Emirates Stakes instead.

      That means Godolphin are all in on Hartnell.

      • Columnist

        October 26th 2016 @ 2:22am
        Greg Prichard said | October 26th 2016 @ 2:22am | ! Report

        That’s racing.

        • Roar Guru

          October 26th 2016 @ 8:24am
          Nathan Absalom said | October 26th 2016 @ 8:24am | ! Report

          What racing giveth, racing taketh away.

      • October 26th 2016 @ 8:25am
        Morgan said | October 26th 2016 @ 8:25am | ! Report

        Well not all in they will have Qewy, maybe Tally if he runs well in the Lexus and they are trying desperately to get Oceanographer into the race as well hence a late nom for Lexus.

      • Roar Guru

        October 26th 2016 @ 8:28am
        Nathan Absalom said | October 26th 2016 @ 8:28am | ! Report

        I thought that Godolphin still had Qewy, Beautiful Romance and Secret Number in the race?

        • Editor

          October 27th 2016 @ 5:08am
          Tristan Rayner said | October 27th 2016 @ 5:08am | ! Report

          Oh they do – just an opinion on Hartnell!

    • October 26th 2016 @ 8:55am
      Irish eyes said | October 26th 2016 @ 8:55am | ! Report

      There’s just one winner.
      Won the ebor in a canter backed off the map by his canny trainer.
      Should’ve got 55kgs but thrown in with 53.
      Luck in running this simply wins.
      Stays quickens likes the hustle and bustle.
      Working super.Take the tip.

    • October 26th 2016 @ 9:13am
      Novasaint said | October 26th 2016 @ 9:13am | ! Report

      My tip … for what it’s worth ,
      Grand Marshal.
      I got $101 in January , $51 earlier this month before it’s strong win in the Mooney valley cup now at $26.
      Can run and win at this distance and was getting into the MC last year before pole axed by Schofield on Gust of wind.
      Worth putting in your multiples.

      • October 27th 2016 @ 10:10am
        Hrad said | October 27th 2016 @ 10:10am | ! Report

        It looks like you got overs mate! Good Luck!

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