Come Tuesday evening, the city of Melbourne could be painted green. The five big chances in the punters’ eyes (Yucatan, Magic Circle, Muntahaa, Best Solution and The Cliffsofmoher) are all flying the flag for the ‘Emerald Isle’.
But they, and many of the other runners, may need more than just a bit of the Irish luck. To win, all 24 will have to do something that they have not done before to secure Australian racing’s most prestigious prize.
For Yucatan, a strong favourite, this means overcoming the wide barrier (23). Only five Melbourne Cup winners since 1983 have come from a gate wider than number 20. In a smaller race it would not be as much of a problem, but if he is forced to do too much work early or cannot find cover, it will naturally take it out of him at the end. He is under $5 with most bookies (on Sunday night), but has not run much beyond the 2400 metres.
I am not saying he cannot win. His dominant win in the Herbert Power was one of the best lead-up races you will ever see. He probably could have won by ten lengths if not for being eased back. My point is, it is a risk a punter will have to take at such a short price that he will repeat that effort and set benchmarks he has not done before. In saying that, are we witnessing a special horse?
Same applies to Magic Circle. While he is a genuine two miler and can lap up the Melbourne Cup distance with his eyes closed, my query with him is the long lay-off between races. He last raced back in May, and while that was a dominant performance, owners were perhaps a little bit overconfident not to run him in fear of getting more of a weight penalty.
As such, there is now a risk that he will not be race fit. As much has he has pleased connections with his training since arriving in Australia, it does not substitute for actual racing – especially in a capacity field of 24 runners which is sure to crowd him more than what he is used to in Europe. They will not let him have it all his own way.
I would at least have liked to have one more run – if not in Australia, before he got on the plane. He could be an unknown quantity in a very tough race, especially because there are concerns of how hard the track will be.
There is expected to be rain around, but if it is not a major downpour, or it does not hang around on the day, the track drainage could mean it has little effect. The Europeans could be faced with a harder than normal track, which they are not used to at home.
The distance worry also applies to The Cliffsofmoher, who finished third in the Caulfield Cup, but it was a race where the off-pace runners were not given much of a run in the straight due to the slow tempo. With the pressure applied late in the race on Tuesday – can he stay the 3200m with the rest of them? I do have my doubts – then again the horse is trained by Aidan O’Brien, and anything is possible.
Youngstar is Australia’s best hope, and has been flying, with an impressive effort behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Despite being untested over 2400m, I am hoping the Chris Waller trained mare can handle the two miles, given her closing sectionals in the Caulfield Cup were exceptional, despite finishing seventh – but I have already mentioned the tempo.
Muntahaa has a lot of fans, and with good reason. His commanding win in the Ebor Handicap in August, where he was pulling away at the finish shows the two miles will be right up his alley. But he only has had one third at both Group 1 and Group 2 level combined, and his last win before the Ebor was back in April 2017.
So, it will all come down to how he travels, and whether he can handle Australian conditions – which again is an unknown.
Rekindling showed last year that age and inexperience does not make it impossible to win the Melbourne Cup – and three-year-old (on Northern Hemisphere time) Cross Counter has had just seven career starts, but has won four of them.
He has won twice at the mile and a half, showing that he is crying out for longer distances, but will he be able to cope with the quality Cup field just yet? It would not surprise me for him to be up there, as lightweight horses have featured heavily in the placings in recent years – but is it a year too early for him?
Like any year, a third of the field you can put a pen through immediately – as they look to just making up the numbers (although recently Prince of Penzance proved this theory wrong for many).
Apart from those top contenders I have mentioned above you cannot discount Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution, who also has some strong Group 1 form in Germany, and if you like him, Sound Check could be value at odds.
Marmelo was joint favourite last year before his disappointing run last year – but he returns, not that much worse off form-wise in 2018. Hugh Bowman was quick to jump back on board and the connections have kept him fresh, not racing him since his second place in the Prix Kergorlay in August.
Rostropovich is another three year old who has flown under the radar and could surprise at a light weight. His only run in Australia was in the Cox Plate, where connections were not really expecting to challenge Winx anyway. He is lightly raced and yet to show his staying potential, but you cannot discount anything Aidan O’Brien saddles up.
However, no two Melbourne Cup’s are the same. So, like in all sports it will come down to who can set their personal best on the day, get luck in the running and overcome their own challenges.
I think, however, James Cummings has the key runner in Avilius. He is flying, winning four straight heading into the Cox Plate, which was a good fitness hit out behind Winx.
Another horse yet to step-up beyond 2500m, which has worried many, but Cummings junior has followed the tried and true mentality of his grandfather Bart, getting 10,000 metres in the legs before the Cup.
He’s more than just a sentimental chance and the Godolphin runner will be primed for this test, and the stable is in red hot form at the moment – I have him on top.
Selections
1. Avilius
2. Youngstar
3. Magic Circle
4. Best Solution
Longshot: Sound Check
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