I have to stay true to my roots and stay in Melbourne this week, and we have a pretty good program in store for the punters on Saturday.

The VOBIS Sires showdown worth $850,000 is the feature of the program, while the Bel Esprit Stakes at Group 3 level is the other feature. The rail is out three metres for the entire circuit, but in recent weeks the track has had a heavy bias so therefore we should probably lean towards those runners who sit on the speed. Let’s get into it!

Race 1: Benchmark 78, handcap, 1400 metres.
We find ourselves a tricky race to kick off the program. I’m prepared to have an each-way bet here though and I’m in the corner of Jumbo Ozaki. He’s never been one of mine but the stars align for him here. He’s been a lot better this preparation. He resumed in good fashion when running second and a length off Bam’s on Fire, who has been running brilliantly since, before holding off Polanco at Flemington over this trip. He ran well last start at Bendigo but was just no match for Big Night Out, who is a very smart horse. This is his grade. Craig Williams has had success previously, and he maps perfectly from the good draw (7). Leiter is one of the main dangers. He was a good winner three back at the Valley and he hasn’t had too much luck since. He draws ideally (4) here and should put in a good showing. Villa Sarchi is close to a win but it’s hard to back him at this track, while Simply Optimistic can improve rising in distance.

Recommended bet: #6 Jumbo Ozaki each way at $5.

Race 2: VOBIS Gold, three-year-old and up, fillies and mares, set weights, 1400 metres
Most of the horses in this race have found their mark in the racing world and that’s why we have two short favourites. I’m happy to be in the corner of Clarice Cliffs. She draws awkwardly (8) and that’s the only reason that she isn’t at a shorter quote. Her last three runs have been very good for this. She ran Jumbo Ozaki (who I tipped in the previous race) to half a length two back at Flemington, before going to the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo and running a neck away from Snogging and beat home the equal favourite here in Twitchy Frank in a superior form race than all the others come out of. She has good tactical speed, which will allow McNeil to get where he wants to in the race and she will be hard to beat. Twitchy Frank is the obvious danger. Maps to get a more economical run from the good draw (3), which has attracted the punters’ interest. She’s been in good form all preparation really and ran well two back at Group 3 level in Tasmania. Anything outside of those two won’t win, but Honey Esprit is a tough on-speed horse that goes into all exotics from the favourable gate (4).

Recommended bet: Win bet on #6 Clarice Cliffs at $2.80.

Race 3: VOBIS Gold Sprint, three-year-old and up, set weights, 1200 metres
The punters are going to know how their day is going to go pretty early with yet another short-priced favourite looking hard to beat. I had Pippie in the red so I’m happy to take the even money on offer for her at the moment. She draws out (11) but is a speed demon so has the ability to cross most of this field with relative ease. Her last three runs have been brilliant. She ran a length off Tofane three back at Flemington (who I like in the All Aged in Sydney), before running them into the ground here in the Oakleigh Plate when beating Zoutori by a length. She was very brave in the William Reid at the Valley when finishing alongside Bivouac and running fourth, three lengths off Loving Gaby. This is a huge drop in grade and she is incredibly well weighted under the set-weights conditions. Hard to beat. Vainstream looks to be the only slight danger. He only ran a length off Pippie in that Oakleigh Plate when jumping at $200, before battling on nicely for fourth in the Hareeba. Draws well again (5) and isn’t out of it. Teleplay hit some good form at the end of last preparation and has a good first-up record, which makes him a must for exotics.

Recommended bet: Win bet on #2 Pippie at $2.05.

Race 4: VOBIS Gold Heath, three-year-old and up, set weights, 2000 metres
Interesting race to dissect here. I don’t want to back Mr Quickie in the red, but I don’t really want to back anything to beat him either. He’s clearly the class runner in the field. He worked home nicely in the All Star Mile on resumption, before going to the Doncaster and running only three lengths off Nettoyer. He didn’t have a lot of luck in that race and it was on a heavy track, which he doesn’t like at all. Gets back on top of the ground here and steps out to the 2000 metres, which are all positives. Outside of him, Grand Crown might be worth a spec. He can mix his form at times but he has won two of his last three and in convincing fashion each time. He whacked them by three lengths three back at Sale in 70 grade, before winning by nearly three lengths over in Adelaide last start. He draws well (5) and has to be considered. Sentimentalist was only pipped on the line by Nudge bar two back at Mornington, before coming out and winning the Stawell Cup in a canter. He’s another who draws well (3) and can’t be discounted. Sopressa has been running against probably better than this grade lately and hasn’t been disgraced. She does find it hard to win though, which is the main query.

Recommended bet: Small each-way play on #6 Sentimentalist at $15.

Race 5: VOBIS Gold Mile, three-year-old and up, set weights, 1600 metres
One of the trickier races from a punting perspective comes here in the fifth. We’re getting a good price for Benitoite. I’m prepared to forgive her last start at this track when she just never looked comfortable when going to the front after being caught wide earlier in the race. The start before that she ran on for a strong fourth at Group 1 level in the Coolmore, which still reads well for this race. She is unplaced from four tries on a good track but if you look back at those runs, she was either unlucky or still ran well. She will need to find a spot with cover from the wide gate (10) and if she does, she will be hard to hold out. Mahamedeis arrives here second up, when he generally does his best racing. His form from last preparation when beating home Best of Days at Group 2 level is good enough to win this race and you can discount his first-up run, which was a glorified trial. Will need luck from the wide gate (11). I don’t love the form out of the Golden Mile but both Iconoclasm and So Si Bon come out of it and have to be respected here.

Recommended bet: #10 Benitoite each way at $6.50.

Race 6: VOBIS Sires Showdown, two-year-old, set weights, 1200 metres
Anything could win this race really, but I’m happy to have a couple of speculative bets. I loved the way Tarcoola Diva jumped out before her debut in the VOBIS Gold Rush and had her as a live chance at $21, but she never really got into the race there at all. She bounced back last star though at this track when running a relatively close second to the talented Diala. She draws perfectly (7) to get a lovely run just off the speed in what will be a break-neck tempo and she can go one better today. Khoekhoe had excuses on his debut at Ballarat when being posted wide and without cover for the entirety of the race, before storming home from near last at Echuca to win by 1.25 lengths. As long as he can get some cover in or among midfield, he could be the one flashing home from the clouds to snatch the cash. Archipeta Beach is a danger after a good debut win at Geelong last start. She faced dry ground for the first time, which is my query surrounding her. River Night draws out (12) and will need a fair bit of luck when trying to cross early, but if she does get it, she’s a big chance.

Recommended bet: Each-way plays on both #11 Tarcoola Diva at $8.50 and #2 Khoekhoe at $14.

Race 7: Bel Esprit Stakes, listed level, handicap, 1100 metres
The other headline act arrives here in the eighth. I’m pretty keen to have a crack at this race and I can’t split two of them. I’ve got Eduardo on top. He’s just the best horse in the race and I’m hoping he has a touch of luck getting across from the wide gate (15). He was excellent without winning last preparation in his two runs when running a neck away from Faatinah on resumption, and then running a length off Nature Strip and Sunlight in the William Reid. He has jumped out well leading into this run resuming and his first-up record points to him being hard to beat dropping in grade. I want to have something on Lyre as well. She is another who draws out (13) but as long as she can get some cover in the three or four wide line it shouldn’t be too bad. She has been impressive this time in, running a length away from Flit when resuming, before running a length off Funstar and Probabeel last start. She has had two months in between runs here but she jumped out well a couple of weeks ago and should be ready to run a big race. Crystal Dreamer maps brilliantly and was only 1.25 lengths away from Pippie last start, which reads well for this, while William Thomas can improve back on top of the ground.

Recommended bet: Each-way plays on both #4 Eduardo at $6.50 and #9 Lyre at $6.

Race 8: VOBIS Gold Dash, three-year-old, set weights, 1100 metres
Potentially the best race on the program awaits punters in the penultimate event. It’s not as open as most and I’m happy to be in the corner of Knowles. The Jason Warren camp have a had a big opinion of this filly for a while now and she is putting it all together this preparation. She resumed with a very nice win at Ballarat over 1000 metres against a smart one in Witchfulthinking, before coming to this track and battling on to run second after a very tough run (caught four wide and without much cover). She draws perfectly today (2), should get a good run behind a very genuine tempo and only need even luck when trying to get out from back on the fence. Broadwayandfourth shapes as the main danger. She was brilliant last preparation when winning at Ballarat over Super Oasis and Sandsation, before coming from last to score at the Valley at listed level. She draws out (17) but will appreciate the genuine tempo out in front. Stand to Attention is the blowout hope. He only ran 0.75 lengths off Soul Patch last preparation which reads well for this and his run resuming when winning by a length was impressive. He will be flashing home late as long as he can get some cover from the wide gate (14).

Recommended bet: #10 Knowles each way at $6.50.

Race 9: VOBIS Sires Guineas, three-year-old, set weights, 1600 metres
A cracking race wraps up what is a good program this weekend. Good luck if you’re still alive in the quaddie. I’m going to back two in the last at good odds and in a repeat of last week, Leale can win again. This race is slightly harder than last week’s, but there’s no reason she can’t improve again and the race sets up well for her again. There doesn’t look to be a great tempo in the race and she draws perfectly (2) to get to the front again and dictate the race. She rises in distance up to the mile today but she was holding them on the line last week and I’m backing her in to repeat the dose. I want to stick with Hasseltoff as well. She’s had three seconds from three starts so far in her career, but the form line surrounding her is very good. She was only 0.75 lengths off Lunakorn on debut, before beating home The Mockingbird last start at Sandown when she missed by a nose. She has shown she can sprint off a slow speed and providing she can get some cover from the gate (13), she can be winning. Score, Affair to Remember and Beehunter are all chances in an open race to finish proceedings.

Recommended bet: Each way plays on both #7 Hasseltoff at $13 and #10 Leale at $26.

Best bet: Race 3 #2 Pippie.
Next best bet: Race 5 #10 Benitoite.
Best value: Race 6 #2 Khoekhoe and Race 9 #10 Leale.