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Opinion
There are two meetings to look at on Friday, with my attention at Yarra Valley and Mildura.
The best bets for the respective programs are down below.
Best bet: Race 3 Number 4 Foregone Conclusion
If he runs up to his trials and New Zealand form, no betting, he wins. The query is the Australian debut back in April here where he went like an absolute donkey as a $1.20 favourite. His trials leading into this prep have been sharp and all things being equal, he’s too good.
Next-best: Race 1 Number 4 Chapter One
He hasn’t had much luck since arriving from NSW but that can change here. He had plenty of excuses last time out at Cranbourne. Hummed off the mobile to find the front but couldn’t get it, so he was forced to ease for cover, then locked wheels when trying to make a run on the turn. He finds the front, hopefully, and proves hard to get past.
Value: Race 4 Number 1 Bootleg Burt
He has enough gate speed to hold a forward and should he be able to hold the lead, he’s in with a shout at a price. He is usually pretty safe from behind the tapes and while his recent form is patchy, the depth here isn’t overly strong, so I’m happy to have a small speck on him at the odds.
Best bet: Race 3 Number 1 Lucinda Jamar
A former NSW mare that has done nothing wrong since joining Alex Ashwood. Led, opted for cover and stuck on well fresh at Bendigo. She then raced here and had good cover in the run before peeling wide and finishing best to win. From the pole, she can hold up, lead and prove very hard to get past.
Next-best: Race 1 Number 9 On My Oath
Normal luck and he wins for mine. He ran here last Thursday and he was massive in defeat after copping an early check. He did work to get on speed and was fighting until the end when a close up third. Good trailing draw to use and barring bad luck, he’ll prove much too good.
Value: Race 5 Number 1 Boss Major
He’s a great each-way bet in a competitive race. He ran in a 57-90 last time out here and found the class a bit rich. The start prior was far from disgraced in a race similar to this from a tricky draw. He now has the pole to use and if he can hold a spot in the first few, he only runs well.
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