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Opinion
Nowhere else in the world does a horse race capture the public imagination like the Melbourne Cup.
It’s un-Australian to not have a bet in the Cup, even if it just takes place in the form of a sweep in the office or at home with a gathering of friends or family.
Last year’s winner, Twilight Payment, was 25-1. Who can forget Michelle Payne steering Prince of Penzance to victory at 100-1. It really is a race that any horse can win on the day.
We all love backing the winner, and even finding a place-getter can be a thrill.
Look at Makybe Diva’s three Melbourne Cups for instance. In 2003, the two placegetters were both 40-1. In 2004, Zazzman ran third at 100-1. And in 2005 we saw On a Jeune run second at 70-1.
A $10 place bet on any of those horses would have collected much more than a win bet on the legendary mare. The lesson: don’t be afraid to have an each-way flutter at big odds!
(PAUL CROCK/AFP/Getty Images)
But if we want to have a really big collect on Australia’s great race, without risking too much, we have to look at the exotic bets.
The most common types of exotics are quinella (first two horses in any order), exacta (first two horses in exact order), trifecta (first three horses) and first four (first four horses in any order).
You can place these bets for whatever percentage of the collect you like. You might have a bet that returns eight per cent – that way, if the dividend is $1000, you will collect $80.
Quinella
2. Incentivise is a very strong favourite this year, and it is hard to see him not running very, very well. If he does, then he’s surely going to be in the top two.
But if he doesn’t quite run out the distance of 3200 metres, which some horses don’t when tackling it for the first time, we might get some good value if we can find the right horses.
Incentivise ridden by Brett Prebble wins the Caulfield Cup. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)
16. Grand Promenade has finished in the quinella at eight of his last nine starts, and also four of the five times he has raced at Flemington. 22. Floating Artist and 21. Tralee Rose are also in great form and they should be prominent at the finish.
Let’s box the numbers 2, 16, 21, 22. A $6 bet will give you 100 per cent of the dividend if we get it.
Exacta
The Exacta pays more than the quinella, because you have to predict the exact order of the first two home. It will pay even more if the outsider of the two horses finishes first.
Let’s stick with the favourite 2. Incentive to win, and searching for some value and perhaps a bigger collect, we will put some bigger odds horses that have a chance in for second – 9. Selino, 12. Persan, 16. Grand Promenade, 18. Port Guillaume, 23. Great House. A $5 bet will give us 100 per cent of the dividend.
Trifecta
The Melbourne Cup trifecta is where the bigger returns come into play if we are lucky enough to get it.
We are confident that Incentivise will run in the top three, but if he doesn’t we can still get a result if we pick the right horses, and it will be a much larger dividend. To try and cover all bases, we will box eight horses together.
Let’s take the four horses mentioned in the Quinella section, and add in the other four horses mentioned in the Exacta section.
Boxing 2, 9, 12, 16, 18, 21, 22, 23 and putting a $50 bet on will give us 14.88 per cent of the dividend.
First four
While the trifecta paid $1806 last year for a $1 investment, the first four was worth $38,939. What a vast difference one extra horse can make.
But it is harder to box horses in a first four and get a good percentage without spending too much money, so we need to get creative.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images for the VRC)
2. Incentivise is the main horse to beat, and 16. Grand Promenade might be his biggest threat. We will take these two for first.
Let’s add 21. Tralee Rose and 22. Floating Artist in for second.
We want to find another four horses to run third, and this is where we can add the rest of our trifecta horses, so in goes 9. Selino, 12. Persan, 18. Port Guillaume, 23. Great House.
Now, anything can run fourth in a Melbourne Cup, so let’s add another four horses to give us half the field. We will add class horses like last year’s winner 1. Twilight Payment, strong international raider 3. Spanish Mission, Lloyd Williams smoky 15. Pondus, and lightweight hope 24. Sir Lucan.
First – 2, 16
Second – 2, 16, 21, 22
Third – 2, 9, 12, 16, 18, 21, 22, 23
Fourth – 1, 2, 3, 9, 12, 15, 16, 18, 21, 22, 23, 24
A $36 bet on the above first four will return us ten per cent of the dividend, and we will hope for things to go our way.
Now remember, you can study all the form guides you like, but your next door neighbour will pick something because its name sounds like his first dog, and probably win more than all of us!
But that’s the beauty of Australia’s greatest race and why we love it so much. Every person has their own unique way of finding a winner. Good luck punters!