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Opinion
There are two meetings to look at on Monday, with my focus at Geelong and Newcastle.
Down below are my best bets for the respective programs.
Best bet – Race 2, No. 1: Thug Rose
This is a good race for the three-year-old fillies, but I am pretty confident this girl can make a winning debut. Andy Gath trains her, and I was taken by her recent trial. I loved the way she moved when asked mid race to take up a more forward role, and with that change up speed, I think she’ll lead and take beating.
Next-best bet – Race 1, No. 5: Xebec
I’m banking on class getting this guy home. He’s a quality trotter that resumes for Chris Lang after a three-run preparation in winter that ended with a game second at Melton. He’s had no public trials to get ready, but he does have strong New Zealand form and is a Group l winner from earlier in his career. He’ll be hard to beat.
Value bet – Race 6, No. 1: Master Works
I reckon he’s worth an each-way ticket from the pole. He had this draw two races back at Maryborough and ran a beauty when second. He was wide for the last lap at Melton last time from an awkward draw and tired late. He should get a lovely sit behind the speed here, and I think he’ll only run well.
Best bet – Race 5, No. 2: Roclea Star
If ever he’s going to win again, then surely this is the race. It’s a limited race on paper and he had clear excuses last time when contacting another sulky, getting a flat tyre – just a mess, really. He should lead this field comfortably, and if he shows any hint of his best, he’ll win.
Next-best bet – Race 7, No. 10: Gimme A Reason
I think he’s the bet in the get out. Alex Alchin is the trainer, Josh Gallagher will steer. He hasn’t been far away in some strong races his past couple of outings, and they were all much stronger than what he faces here. He recently won a couple on the bounce and has a lovely trailing draw to use. He’ll be hard to beat.
Value bet – Race 1, No. 1, You Little Terror
This is a bludger of a race on paper, so I think the bet each way is the horse that should be on speed, which is this guy. Numerically he hasn’t set the world on fire recently, but he has a good gate to use early speed and hold a forward spot, and that should be an ideal position in a race that is full of limited quality horses.
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