Opinion
Let’s get the honesty session out of the way early. This is not a vintage Turnbull Stakes, and in truth is probably the most ordinary rendition this century.
But it’s still a Group 1 race, it’s attracted a full field, and with many competing formlines it makes for a compelling betting race.
The set weights and penalties format of the Turnbull also adds another layer, being the only Group 1 in Victoria run under this format, and it’s a rarity among the weight-for-age and handicap races that most of this type of field usually run in.
Duais is the best credentialled horse in the field by a fair margin, with three Group 1 wins to her name, including two of the big ones. But she is a mare giving most of the field weight, and hasn’t been going great guns in two runs this time in, while not being in a suitable race yet either.
It’s a mini D-Day for Duais, but this circumstance is where she has peaked for wins the last two preps – third up, 2000m, good ground. Let’s see what she’s got.
Gold Trip is vying for favouritism with Duais, and is also a horse with some question marks over him. He was brought out for the Cox Plate last year, but scratched from that event at the eleventh hour.
His first run in Australia was July, followed by the Naturalism two weeks ago, carrying 61 and 60kg’s respectively. Both runs had some people saying he was no good, and others saying he was warming up beautifully and right on target. With only 54.5kgs in the Turnbull, he’s the best weighted horse in the race compared to his rating, so we should get our answer on Saturday.
Profondo is third favourite, and is another horse difficult to assess. It’s what make this particular edition so intriguing.
Surprise Baby ridden by Jordan Childs on Turnbull Stakes day. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)
Profondo won the Group 1 Spring Champion at just his third start, and looked like he had all the talent in the world, but all the erraticness too. He struck wet tracks and bad luck in the autumn, and more of the same this campaign.
Brought down to Melbourne to find a good surface, for the first time since that Spring Champion, and with a good draw and Craig Williams to steer, we will find out exactly where he sits in the scheme of things.
Inspirational Girl steps out to 2000m for the first time, having resumed at 1600m behind Mr Brightside at the Valley last time. She beat Zaaki when second-up in the autumn off a good first-up run in the Orr, so she can improve sharply and be competitive against this field.
Alegron chased Profondo a couple of times in their three-year-old season, and looks to have found his form with a win against a similar field as this last start. He’s an honest type.
Young Werther and Chapada filled the placings in this race last year, behind superstar Incentivize. They both ran in the Caulfield Cup behind him too, before having almost a year off. They look right on track to be competitive here, from what we’ve seen this spring.
Young Werther has always had a touch of qualify, and Chapada is serially underrated for a horse that has placed three times at Group 1 level at Flemington.
One to watch at bigger odds might be Surefire. He was almost Caulfield Cup favourite after a convincing win first-up in Sydney, but has only battled away in two runs on wet tracks since. If he can find his best on top of the ground, and has not yet hit his ceiling, he might once again stamp himself the one to beat in two week’s time.
Maximal is another to keep an eye on. Yes, he was beaten out of sight behind Duais in the Australia Cup back in March, but he did finish in front of Zaaki in the Doomben Cup a couple of months later. He could also be in the mix.
Selections: 1.Profondo 2.Chapada 3.Inspirational Girl 4.Surefire
There’s plenty of meat in the support program at Flemington. The Bart Cummings is always a quality affair, with entry into the Melbourne Cup assured to the winner.
All of Daqiansweet Junior’s best form has come on good tracks, including an Adelaide Cup win, and his two runs on wet ground over unsuitable distances have been more than enough to suggest he’s going as well as ever, if not improved. Expect him to be a serious player in the staying ranks this season.
There’s a few coming out of the 2500m race here on Makybe Diva Stakes day. Could Vow and Declare be back to his best? He’s absolutely a winning hope if so, given how stylishly he hit the line there.
Francesco Guardi has had some gear tweaks, and wants firm ground. Don’t sleep on him. Stablemate Desert Icon is so consistent and you’d love to own him, but was he flattered by the track at Moonee Valley last week?
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images for the VRC)
Perth Cup winner Midnight Blue can improve on better ground after paddling away in the Naturalism. Lunar Flare struck a purple patch this time last year, and has been ticking over beautifully for this step up in distance too.
Selections: 1.Daqiansweet Junior 2.Lunar Flare 3.Francesco Guardi 4.Vow and Declare
What an even field has been assembled for the Gilgai, where 13 sprinters will tackle the Flemington straight.
The Bobbie Lewis from three weeks ago provides a lot of the form.
Baller was too good there, charging home from the back, further franking the Queensland form that’s been so good in Victoria this season. Newmarket Handicap winner Roch ‘N’ Horse was second, proving both that she’s no fluke and simply loves the straight.
Swat’s That is always a threat at Flemington, but gosh it’s been a long time since she was paraded around the ring in the winner’s blanket after a race. Is she just a money muncher now?
Athelric is the wild card. He progressed nicely through the lesser grades as a three-year-old in the autumn and winter, before running second to Eduardo first-up this campaign, and following it up beaten four lengths by Nature Strip and competitive with some Everest types. That could easily be the right form for this.
It’sourtime always runs well, but you don’t hold your breath waiting for him to win. Sirius Suspect is a straight specialist, so must be respected. The same goes for Zoutori, but his time might have passed. Kemalpasa is such a grand warrior, still racing in great heart, and The Astrologist wasn’t far away in the Bobbie Lewis.
Private Eye has 60kg’s and is likely being targeted for something in Cup week, but was second to Alligator Blood in the Stradbroke last start, which is high class form.
Selections: 1.Athelric 2.Roch ‘N’ Horse 3.Swat’s That 4.Kemalpasa
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