The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Opinion

Winterbottom Stakes Day 2022 preview

Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Roar Rookie
24th November, 2022
2

Meeting three of the revamped Pinnacles carnival in Western Australia has arrived, and for many it’s their highlight of the Ascot racing season.

The Winterbottom Stakes has produced some incredible races since its elevation to Group 1 level. An army of horses from over east have crossed the Nullarbor to try to take our premier sprint race, but they’ll be met with some of the stiffest competition WA has to offer.

Outside of the feature, there are eight other races, including two stakes races, to salivate over on Saturday.

Last week’s column was a successful one from a tipping standpoint, producing winning tips in the two features and getting Panzdown home at a nice each-way price.

So without further ado, here are my thoughts on this Saturday’s bumper meeting at Ascot.

Race 1: RTG 78+ (1200 metres)

There were plenty of questions over whether Revitup would handle the 1200 metres of the Placid Ark, and she more than answered them, giving a strong kick before finding My Bella Mae (remember that name) too strong late. For a fairly competitive 78+ there’s not an abundance of speed, so finding the front shouldn’t be an issue if she jumps cleanly. She gets in on the minimum, keeps William Pike and may simply run them off their legs.

River Rubicon always puts in a big show first up, and the Steve Wolfe camp is absolutely flying at the moment. He can make his presence felt in a big way.

Advertisement

Titan Blinders has been punished for his ultra-consistent ways since arriving out west with a big weight. It would take a strong effort given 7.5 kilograms to my top two chances if he were to win this. Featherweight is going superbly at the moment and (ironically) is well treated at the weight scale here. The barrier draw is perfect for a kind run in transit, and this horse can be involved at the business end.

Tip: Revitup win $4.

Close up of a horse

(Image byJackieLou DL via Pixabay)

Race 2: RTG 64+ (1000 metres)

Another one of what seems to be the Gangemi express from Victoria to WA, I really like the chances of Tadweer first up this campaign. In his first run for the stable he was beaten by Lexington City before beating all bar Sniparoochy at his next (and most recent) start. That form has worked out very well and looks enough to be ultra-competitive in this grade.

Bitofmerit returns for the first time since going under in a three-year-old handicap back in July. Has some excellent form lines and the 1000-metre distance suits him. I’m just not sure about the price they’ve put up.

Could Saturday be the day finally see Olga Louisa break through for another win? She’ll run them along and be in front at the 200, and I wouldn’t talk you out of her on an each-way basis.

Advertisement

Hardly Ever also has Sniparoochy form and has trialled well for her return. Pixie Chix flew home on Railway day and backs up off seven days, Taj Dyson’s claim puts her into contention as well. Rumour Says drops out of the top-line three-year-old company to a 64+ and can bounce back to her sparkling best.

Tip: Tadweer each way $13.00/$3.50.

Race 3: Regional Championship Final (1200 metres)

These races are a brilliant reward for connections and trainers for investing in country meetings across the state. Brilliant is not the word I would use to describe them from a betting proposition, however. Royal Gap rules over Geraldton with an iron fist at the moment, coming into this for the Ash Maley team. Lisa Staples has a fantastic relationship with this horse, and you could not have possibly drawn a better barrier if you tried.

Things haven’t quite panned out for the ex-Lindsey Smith horse Kohli, who has form around Getyourmoneyandrun, Starauthoress and Sneaky Fox. Those four I find hard to separate, although Sneaky Fox is the one that seems to be a bit over the odds at the time of writing.

The fact that the market caps out at $21 says all you need to know about this race. It’s incredibly even, and I could probably make a case for every runner in here. Instead I’ll save both of us time and stick with Royal Gap on top.

Tip: Royal Gap win $5

Advertisement

Race 4: RTG 72+ (1400 metres)

We’ve seen Casino Seventeen bounce around on the higher end of the NSW country circuit, and first up in WA I think he can make his presence felt. He has drawn a beautiful gate for William Pike, and given his poor overall trial record, I’m prepared to ignore him just whacking away in the lead-up to this run. Expect good support on the day given the trainer-jockey combination.

The Velvet Queen certainly has good form lines, but is she as good as the market seems to think? Consistently going under at short prices, I’m prepared to risk her first up at 1400.

Magic to Exceed was honest enough two weeks ago, and given the way the day played out, it may not have been suited. The horse is capable of getting the job done here.

Brooklyn Pier and Holy Ghost are enigmatic, to say the least, but you’d never rule them out entirely.

Tip: Casino Seventeen each way $11.00/$3.40.

A close up of a grey horse

(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)

Advertisement

Race 5: Westspeed Platinum Series Final (1400 metres)

Another brilliant concept for connections of the horses involved, this race brings together the best eligible horses from the Westspeed Platinum series. Oly’s Choice has gone up favourite in an open market, and given the wraps on him, it’s not hard to understand why. Described as ‘group class’ by some, he’s been given a similar assessment by the handicapper here, with 62 kilograms to lug.

I’m willing to risk him as a result and ended up with Dadirra on top. Barrier 1 probably isn’t fantastic for a get back run on types like this mare, but given most of the winning chances in this race – of which there are about five – will settle in the second half of the field, some gaps may open up around the turn for Peter Knuckey to slice through.

Prize Pursuit will probably be back near last from the wide barrier and will need a perfectly rated steer by Clint Johnston-Porter to get the cash here. He’s certainly talented enough to win here.

Keytrade was good last start behind Darirra and has the versatility to go forward or back, which could end up being key in a race map such as this one. Sweet Tea and Reign of Fire have claims, but they seem to have both found their marks at present.

Tip: Dadirra win $7.

Race 6: Sir Ernest Lee Steere Classic (1400 metres)

Advertisement

The first of our stakes races on the program is restricted to the three-year-olds. All the King’s Men was a courageous run last week in the Guineas. He wasn’t able to get a forward spot and pulled his way there along the back. To stick on and be beaten just over two lengths by Amelia’s Jewel was a tough effort, and if he’s taken no ill effects out of the run, he should be right in the finish.

Saintorio was equally good last week. Another tenacious type, he can be prominent turning for home, and his will to win will take him a long way up the Ascot straight.

Kosta’s Crown is a significantly better horse than his record suggests and has always threatened to deliver a killer blow in a juvenile feature. I would not be leaving him out of your multiples.

China Spriti comes in off winning a Belmont maiden on Sunday. She doesn’t have the runs on the board that some of these do, but she looks like another formidable filly from the Amelia Park operation. Man Crush and Diamond Command are others that will win races throughout their career, although this contest may be a shade beyond them.

Tip: All The King’s Men win $4.

Race 7: AJ Schaill Cup (2100 metres)

A vital lead-up for the Perth Cup, we get a nice group of stayers here trying to press their credentials for New Year’s Day glory. Pure Devotion put in a strong run in the Luckygray, but he’s come up well short of a price I could entertain him at.

Advertisement

That leaves us looking for an each-way play, and Utgard Loki comes in set to relish the rise up to a genuine staying trip. He’s a significantly better horse when he gets to bowl along in the leading division, which he hasn’t been afforded so far. With Marrochino the only other horse that will look to aggressively be forward, this is a much kinder set-up. It’s worth noting Pure Devotion finished only half a length in front of him last start, and while he hit the line better, Utgard Loki had clear excuses.

Neufbosc has been whacking away in much harder races over unsuitable trips and is capable of sharp improvement. His grand final is still six weeks away, but don’t be surprised if he puts in a big effort.

Stafford’s Lad should get a more genuine tempo than he did in the Luckygray, but the barrier is a big negative for him. Chilli is Hot has a bit of upside about her, I just would like to see her in this company before recommending her.

Tip: Utgard Loki each way $10/$3

Race 8: Winterbottom Stakes (1200 metres)

Undeniably the strongest race of the Pinnacles, there’s plenty of speed engaged so expect a frenetic first 400 metres. My Bella Mae has come from nowhere this spring and has a chance to win a Group 1 in her first racing campaign. It’s no easy feat, but there’s real quality about this filly, and at the prices currently on offer she can run you a big race on an each-way basis. The barrier is perfect, given there will have to be a three-wide line as five leaders try to occupy two positions in running. That’ll give her a perfect tow into the race, with the 51.5 kilograms she’s afforded under weight for-age, allowing her a chance to run on. We’ve seen three-year-olds take down the older horses in feature sprints already this season, and I think she can be another.

Of the better known horses, Elite Street, Red Can Man, This’ll Testya and Miss Conteki are very strong local hopes that will all have their fair share of support. Rothfire has drawn perfectly for champion jockey Damien Oliver, while visiting Godolphin pair Vilana and Paulele have been handed sticky barriers for their assignment.

Advertisement

The Astrologist gets the invaluable services of William Pike but would have to produce a career peak. Massimo, Stageman and Kissonallforcheeks are all in with a chance as well. Regardless of who you end up supporting, be prepared for a brilliant race.

Tip: My Bella Mae each way $13/$3.

Race 9: RTG 78+ (1600 metres)

Let’s hope we don’t have to rely on this race to make it a successful day, as it’s far from easy. Staralign is a bit hard to catch, but his run in the Carbine Club was a ripper and he may be able to peak over the mile. It’s a slightly tricky barrier for him, so it’s worth being mindful he may lose cover and be forced to do it tough along the back. If Steven Parnham can get a back to follow – much like we hope he can in the previous race – he’s got enough of a turn of foot to figure in the finish.

Dom to Shoot drops out of significantly harder company, and his best is absolutely good enough to influence the result here. He will need a good ride from Jordy Turner to make that happen.

Eeyore Wayz is one of the most consistent horses in the state and should appreciate dropping out of black-type company back to ratings. His second in the Northam Cup two back gives him every chance to play a role. Above the Peg stormed home last week and comes in on the backup. Stable and jockey are flying, so dismiss him at your peril.

Tip: Staralign win $8.

Advertisement
close