The Roar
The Roar

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Opinion

Northerly Stakes Day preview

(Photo by Violeta Pencheva via Unsplash)
Roar Rookie
1st December, 2022
1

The greatest horse Western Australia has ever produced (sorry, Eurythmic) finally gets his name attached to a Group 1. The 1800-metre weight-for-age classic has produced some brilliant races over the journey, with this year possibly having one of the most intriguing contests we have seen this side of the Nullarbor.

Outside of the feature, there are eight other races to be run and won, hopefully providing us with a clearer picture towards the Perth Cup and Karrakatta Plate.

We only managed to grab one winner in last week’s column, with Revitup getting the job done in the first, while Casino Seventeen was heavily backed and managed to fill the placings for the each-way tip.

Race 1: two-year-old plate, 1000 metres

Speaking of Revitup, she gave them a lesson in this race last year, winning by a lazy five lengths. I was really impressed by the debut of Home James in the Crystal Slipper coming from a long way back and hitting the line really strongly. He’s drawn another horrific barrier here but does get a big tick for the race experience he brings.

Soaring Solo was a fantastic debut winner and draws perfectly here, but that win has been punished by a sharp jump in weight and I just wonder if that’ll be enough to swing the result away from him. As a $3000 purchase who won a $100,000 race on debut, he owes connections absolutely nothing.

I don’t fancy the other two we’ve seen racing, so now onto the debutants. I absolutely loathe the 400m Belmont trials, but I do concede Generosity showed some ability as a jump-and-run type and gets a shrewd booking with the in-form Troy Turner picking up the ride. Sugarwood is a filly out of the David Harrison yard who won a three-horse trial after finding the front. She was ridden along on that occasion but was given a soft time of it once she had her rivals beat and hit the line well. Miss Rockjoy finished ahead of Ready Set Dance, coming from well back in the field to grab second. Given the draw of barrier 1, I’m not sure that will be particularly favourable.

Tip: Home James win $4.20

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Race 2: three-year-old plate

I must confess I was (pleasantly) surprised to see Aztec Ruler scheduled to run here, and despite him coming off a setback, I’m very keen to back him here. He’s very much the forgotten member of a bumper three-year-old group. He has drawn a perfect gate for his return. I believe this horse will step up to black-type racing in time, so I would be expecting a placing at the very minimum here.

I have a lot of time for Hang Glider, who went to the great southern for an easy kill last start. Now the maiden monkey is off his back, he can stamp himself as a city-class horse here. Expect Shooter McGruddy to be positive from the favourable barrier.

Street Parade beat the very progressive Category Three (more on him later) last start and moves from graduation to restricted company. The booking of James McDonald is a clear sign of intent from the camp and he simply has to be respected.

The Great Hoya has raced in these types of races throughout his career, and if he’s ready to go first up, he can win without surprise.

Tip: Aztec Ruler win $3.10

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Race 3: RTG 66+ 2100 metres

Plenty of talk going around about Truly Inspired, but is he as bombproof as people think? I’m inclined to say no, and I will look to get him beat here.

Queen Alina has cleared just about every bar the Pearce brothers have set for her, and if she can get the job done here, she could go on an upward spiral towards the Perth Cup. This race was won by Black Shadow last year, who did just that. She profiles as a type who will relish the trip, and despite Chris Parnham preferring the stablemate, I think she’s the one to beat.

Speaking of the stablemate, Roch Legacy put the warning lights on last start with a slashing performance to run into the placings. Mystery Island has shown some real staying ability over the journey, and the booking of the visiting John Allen looks significant but needs to be respected, especially if there’s any hint of market support.

Tip: Queen Alina each way $7.00/$2.35

Horse racing generic 1

Race 4: Graduation 60+ 1400 metres

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Looking over this race, there are only three horses I can seriously entertain. Category Three was enormous last start, flying from the back to grab second. She was heavily supported that day, and I expect she will have plenty of fans come Saturday as well. The only concern is barrier 7; Pike will either need to snick back or hope for a three-wide line to develop.

Knot Secret was another horse many were keen to follow off his last start run, rattling home from miles back after seemingly being run off his legs in the early stanza of the race. Barrier 1 should allow him to sit significantly closer, so don’t be surprised if he leaves with the prize. Lord Gannicus hasn’t quite matched up to our top three-year-olds, but his form in class more akin to this was solid enough to suggest he can run well.

I was with Trade War at his last start and he arguably should’ve won, but he’s sharply up in weight here against more progressive horses, so I couldn’t back up.

Tip: Knot Secret win $6.50

Race 5: Graduation 60+ 1200 metres

This is an incredibly strong race for the class. Karalee Rocks has been scintillating in class 1 and 5 company, denying Rebelzone at her last start. While the wins have been very visually impressive, that’s potentially the knock on her. Still, to come from third-last at the turn and still get the job done is very impressive, and I expect her to be the subject of heavy market support.

My attention for this race will be away from her here, however, although I concede she’s a very strong chance, with Penny on the Queen finally getting away from stakes company and into a nice race for her. She’ll be back in the run from her draw, and if we have a fair deck on race day, she can rattle home. The booking of Shaun O’Donnell screams intent, and Amelia’s Jewel form will always be viewed favourably in this column.

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Real Danger is just that in this race and is another runner that will have fans on race day. If she’s one you like, I’d be jumping on Friday at the latest, as there will be a strong pike tax enforced on Saturday.

It’s All a Rumour was very competitive in the Belmont two-year-old races through the winter and can put in a performance with the light weight. Miss Vasari is a very honest mare who hardly ever runs a bad race.

Tip: Penny on the Queen each way $12.00/$3.10

Race 6: RTG 66+ 1600 metres

Throughout most of the season, taking the three-year-olds against the older horses in ratings races has been a sound play. You still need the right one, but I feel Rejuva King is just that. He was no match for the first four home in the Guineas, but that’s no knock given the first two are fighting out the Northerly on this card and the two after that were part of a thrilling finish in the listed three-year-old race last week. This is A-level form and it looks like a winnable 66+.

Crescent City has made a lot of bookmakers very rich over the journey, but he’s honest and there will once again be support for him. Am I having a dig at him by placing him second in my column? That’s for you to decide, but he should be comfortable here.

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Megazone was a big winner here last start, overhauling Pat’s Got Sass in the final strides (that still hurts). He got all the favours that day, but he’s another that possesses plenty of honesty and will give this a sight.

Tri For Us was very good behind Above The Peg last start, but I’m not sure staying at 1600 metres is what this mare is looking for. The weight relief administered by apprentice Taj Dyson will help. Zephyra is the big unknown here. It looked like the world was at her feet coming into this campaign, but it’s all gone horribly wrong. D Day looms large here.

Tip: Rejuva King win $7.00

Race 7: Listed Jungle Dawn Classic

There are only two stakes races on offer, but both are stacked with quality. This is the second leg of the fillies and mares series and has attracted a handy ensemble. Ginger Flyer was absolutely airborne during the Belmont season, seemingly coming of age and treating us to performances equal parts tenacious and brilliant. Patrick Carbery is a perfect booking for the first-up assignment over 1400 metres in a race that could end up having a little bit of speed involved. If she can find the front, she will be incredibly hard to run down.

Buzzoom was clearly looking for further in the first leg of this series and gets just that here. John Allen on is a notable change; I’m not sure if Chris Parnham has chosen Vane Tempest or was booted off. Regardless of the circumstances, she can turn in an improved performance here, and if the gaps open at the right time, she can get over the top late.

Real Grace was good first up but her Ascot record is poor and I can’t help but feel like the pike tax is heavily influencing the early market. She can make me look silly and win, but at the current quote I’m happy being elsewhere.

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Sentimental Queen just missed the smart Billy Ain’t Silly when first up at Ascot in January over 1400 metres; a similar effort would have to see her as a genuine place chance here.

Tip: Ginger Flyer win $5.00

A close up of a grey horse

(Photo by Olga Gasheva via Unsplash)

Race 8: Group 1 Northerly Stakes 1800 metres

After last year’s small field (but gigantic upset), it’s really exciting to see our premium weight-for-age races with a capacity field. This has been a race for the three-year-old fillies in recent years, and this year Amelia’s Jewel will look to emanate Arcadia Queen and Kay Cee by taking this out. She shook off the shock in the Burgess Queen to claim the Guineas, and to my eye she did it fairly comfortably despite only winning by half a length. She could be anything, and barrier 1 will give Patrick Carbery the opportunity to sit a little bit closer.

In any other year, Cascadian would be about $1.50 in a Northerly and would be just about as close to a certainty as you could get. He’s run into one of the top juveniles in the country on her home turf and is giving her nine kilograms. There’s no question he can win this, but he’ll have to go past the filly, and that may be a very tough ask.

Bustler was very brave in the Guineas and has given every indication the 1800 metres won’t be an issue. Trix of the Trade was fantastic in the Railway and the feel-good story of WA racing this season. As much time as I have for him, I struggle to make a strong case for him at level weights against Cascadian.

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Treasured Star carries colours that have been so successful in these races, and I could make a case she’s been somewhat overlooked in this picture. In terms of horses, I can make a push for her to win that just about sees it out, but Startrade, Searchin’ Roc’s and Notorious One can all fill the placings at huge odds.

Tip: Amelia’s Jewel win $3.20

Race 9: RTG 72+ handicap 1200 metres

We close the program with a quality sprinting contest. I made a strong case for Cash Away in my Railway Stakes preview, and he was very solid (and unlucky) that day. He is an untried commodity over the six furlongs, but the way he ran first-up the extra distance should be no concern. The barrier gives Joseph Azzopardi plenty of options, and in a competitive little race I think he can send us home a winner.

Burnya to Survive seemed to lose his way a little bit in the winter months, but he’s trialled well for his return and it’s possible he’s simply a dry-track horse. I’m not sure we’ve had a pike in the Last since the wizard returned home, but that could all change on Saturday.

It’s been a long time between drinks for Gemma’s Son, but he’s a talented entire and can win without surprise. Given his stallion prospects, I’m not sure we’ll see him at the races much more on current form.

I’m very much undecided on Flying Missile. She was never going to be suited first up over 1000 metres, but I’m also not sure 1200 is her ideal distance either. She’s another one that can win without surprise.

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Tip: Cash Away win $4.20

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